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Post by middleenglander on Nov 13, 2015 21:06:29 GMT
Back from a short break in the Cotswolds and starting to catch up. I agree with Pete's week and month to date figures about from 3 rounding differences: Greenhert 212.5 not 212.4, Lennon 245.6 not 245.5 and David Boothroyd 278.8 not 278.9.
Objections please by noon Sunday.
There are 7 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2015 21:45:13 GMT
I predict that Professor Zaphosa will be banned (posted this to bury his spam thread).
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 18, 2015 22:39:24 GMT
Aylesford Green - Ashford BC
Adrian Gee-Turner (Liberal Democrats) 10%
Alex Howard (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20
Christine Kathawick-Smith (Ashford Independent) 25
Gordon Miller (Labour Party) 29
Thom Pizzey (The Green Party) 3
Harriet Yeo (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 13
Kidwelly - Carmarthenshire
Stephen Bowen (People First- Truly Independent/ Gwerin Gyntaf- Wirioneddol Annibynnol) 20
Fran Burke-Lloyd (Independent) 14
Stephen Davies (Ceidwadwyr Cymreig Welsh Conservatives) 7
Dilwyn Jones (Plaid Cymru- The Party of Wales) 23
Vivian Summers (Independent) 2
Ryan Thomas (Llafur Cymru/Welsh Labour) 34
Dewi - Gwynedd
Andrew Joyce (Liberal Democrats - Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol) 10
Eirian Roberts (Welsh Labour/Llafur Cymru) 40
Gareth Roberts (Plaid Cymru- The Party of Wales) 50
Llanaelhaearn - Gwynedd
Eric Cullen (Independent) 26
Wynne Isaac (Llais Gwynedd-The Voice of Gwynedd) 38
Aled Jones (Plaid Cymru- The Party of Wales) 36
South Smallburgh - Norfolk CC
Alison Bradnock (Liberal Democrat) 38
Anne Filgate (The Green Party) 4
Paul Rice (The Conservative Party Candidate) 34
David Spencer (Labour & Co-operative Party) 10
Barry Whitehouse (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 14
Watton - Norfolk CC
Timothy Birt (The Green Party) 4
Claire Bowes (The Conservative Party Candidate) 43
Keith Gilbert (Independent) 42
Joe Sisto (Labour Party) 11
Epsom West - Surrey CC
Kate Chinn (Labour Party Candidate) 22
Chris Crook (Green Party) 4
Neil Dallen (Resident Associations of Epsom and Ewell) 27
Robert Leach (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 8
Julie Morris (Liberal Democrat) 25
Karan Persand (Local Conservatives) 14
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Post by greenhert on Nov 19, 2015 0:11:53 GMT
My predictions for this week's by-elections are as follows:
Ashford BC, Aylesford Green: Labour 33, Conservative 26, Ashford Independent 23, UKIP 8, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 4. (Labour hold.)
Carmarthenshire UA, Kidwelly: Lab 32, People First 25, Plaid Cymru 24, Independent (Fran Lloyd-Burke) 10, Con 7, Independent (Vivian Summers) 2. (Labour hold.)
Gwynedd UA, Dewi: PC 59, Lab 30, Lib Dem 11. (Plaid Cymru hold.)
Gwynedd UA, Llanaelhearn: Llais Gwynedd 43, PC 41, Independent (Eric Cullen) 16. (Llais Gwynedd hold.)
Norfolk CC, South Smallburgh: Lib Dem 40, Con 35, UKIP 11, Lab 10, Green 4. (Liberal Democrat hold.)
Norfolk CC, Watton: Con 42, Independent (Keith Gilbert) 36, Lab 17, Green 5. (Conservative gain from UKIP.)
Surrey CC, Epsom West: Residents Association of Epsom & Ewell 29, Lib Dem 24, Con 19, Lab 18, UKIP 7, Green 3. (Residents Association gain from Liberal Democrat.)
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 19, 2015 0:43:44 GMT
Ashford BC, Aylesford Green: L 33.9, C 30.5. Ash Ind 19.8, UKIP 9.9, LD 3.3, G 2.6. Carmarthenshire UA, Kidwelly: L 38.0, Ind (Burke-Lloyd) 25.8, PC 14.4, PF 13.3, C 6.7, Ind (Summers) 1.8. Gwynedd UA, Dave (  ): L 50.6, PC 40.1, LD 9.0. Gwynedd UA, Parish of the Iron Eyebrows (  ): LG 39.5, Ind 31.4, PC 29.1. Norfolk CC, South Smallborough: LD 39.5, C 30.9, UKIP 13.4, L 13.0, G 3.2. Norfolk CC, Watton: C 45.1, Ind 38.0, L 13.3, G 3.6. Surrey CC, Epsom W: Res 27.9, LD 23.0, L 21.6, C 15.4, UKIP 10.3, G 1.8. For the avoidance of doubt, the two Gwynedd divisions are, of course, Dewi and Llanaelhaearn respectively after translation. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 19, 2015 0:47:08 GMT
ASHFORD Aylesford Green: Ind 31, Lab 28, C 20, L Dem 11, UKIP 8, GP 2
CARMARTHENSHIRE Kidwelly: PF 29, Ind Burke-Lloyd 25, Lab 24, PC 10, C 7, Ind Summers 5
GWYNEDD Dewi: PC 57, Lab 30, L Dem 13
GWYNEDD Llanaelhaearn: PC 52, LG 29, Ind 19
NORFOLK South Smallburgh: L Dem 38, C 36, UKIP 16, Lab/Co-op 7, GP 3
NORFOLK Watton: Ind 41, C 38, Lab 16, GP 5
SURREY Epsom West: RA 27, L Dem 25, Lab 20, C 15, UKIP 10, GP 3
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Nov 19, 2015 4:31:28 GMT
ASHFORD Aylesford Green: Lab 29, Ind 28, Con 17, UKIP 16, LD 6, Grn 4
CARMARTHENSHIRE Kidwelly: Lab 38, Ind Burke-Lloyd 23, PC 18, PF 15, Con 5, Ind Summers 1
GWYNEDD Dewi: PC 60, Lab 35, LD 5
GWYNEDD Llanaelhaearn: LG 50, PC 30, Ind 20
NORFOLK South Smallburgh: LD 37, Con 35, UKIP 16, Lab 7, GP 5
NORFOLK Watton: Ind 52, Con 37, Lab 7, Grn 4
SURREY Epsom West: RA 26.8, LD 24.3, Lab 22.2, UKIP 15.2, Con 8.8, Grn 2.7
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Post by hempie on Nov 19, 2015 8:21:42 GMT
Ashford, Aylesford Green: Ashford Ind 29, Lab 27, Con 19, LD 14, UKIP 7, Green 4
Carmarthenshire,Kidwelly: PF 29, Ind Burke-Lloyd 26, Lab 26, PC 12, Con 5, Ind Summers 2
Gwynedd,Dewi: PC 58, Lab 32, LD 10
Gwynedd, Llanaelhaearn: PC 44, LG 31, Ind 25
Norfolk,South Smallburgh: LD 42, C 30, UKIP 15, Lab 8, Green 5
Norfolk,Watton: Ind 42, Con 40, Lab 10, Green 8
Surrey, Epsom West: LD 27, RA 26, Lab 19, Con 14, UKIP 10, Green 4
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 19, 2015 8:54:02 GMT
What a nightmarish bunch of seats to predict and to leave to the last minute !
Norfolk CC - South Smallburgh
LD 38.7%
Con 36.8%
UKIP 11.9%
Lab 8.2%
Grn 4.4%
Norfolk CC - Watton
Con 40.1%
Ind 39.1%
Lab 15.6%
Grn 5.2%
Surrey CC - Epsom West
LD 28.6%
Res 25.6%
Con 18.7%
Lab 15.4%
UKIP 8.6%
Grn 3.1%
Ashford BC - Aylesford Green
Ash Ind 26.5%
Lab 25.9%
UKIP 21.3%
Con 15.8%
LD 6.8%
Grn 3.7%
Carmarthenshire - Kidwelly
Lab 32.9%
Ind BL 26.9%
PF 19.5%
PC 13.0%
Con 5.5%
Ind S 2.2%
Gwynedd - Dewi
PC 59.5%
Lab 30.7%
LD 9.8%
Gwynedd - Llanaelhaearn
PC 38.1%
LG 32.3%
Ind 29.6%
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Post by marksenior on Nov 19, 2015 9:00:42 GMT
Ashford Lab 29 Ind 25 Con 22 UKIP 12 LD 7 Green 5
Caemarthen Ind B-L 33 Lab 26 PF 21 Plaid 15 Con 5 Ind S 0
Gwynedd Dewi Plaid 52 Lab 34 LD 14
Gwynedd Llan.... Ind 37 LG 33 Plaid 30
Norfolk S Smallburgh Con 34 LD 31 UKIP 22 Lab 8 Green 5
Norfolk Watton Ind 51 Con 32 Lab 11 Green 6
Surrey Ratep 30 LD 25 Lab 17 Con 16 UKIP 8 Green 4
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Post by lennon on Nov 19, 2015 9:29:03 GMT
ASHFORD Aylesford Green: Lab 25, Ind 25, Con 20, UKIP 20, LD 5, Grn 5
NORFOLK South Smallburgh: LD 35, Con 30, UKIP 25, Lab 5, GP 5
NORFOLK Watton: Con 45, Ind 40, Lab 10, Grn 5
SURREY Epsom West: RA 26, LD 24, Lab 20, UKIP 17, Con 10, Grn 3
CARMARTHENSHIRE Kidwelly: Lab 31, Ind Burke-Lloyd 29, PC 25, PF 10, Con 4, Ind Summers 1
GWYNEDD Dewi: PC 65, Lab 25, LD 10
GWYNEDD Llanaelhaearn: LG 45, PC 40, Ind 15
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 19, 2015 9:33:55 GMT
I predict high faults all round this week. Ashford: Con 27.3 Ash Ind 26.2 Lab 25.7 LD 12.2 UKIP 5.5 Grn 3.1 Carmarthenshire: Lab 32.1 Ind B-L 26.7 PC 18.3 PF 15.8 Con 7.1 Ind S 0.0 Gwynedd - Dewi PC 56.3 Lab 34.5 LD 9.2 Gwynedd - the other one: Ind 36.3 PC 36.0 LG 27.7 Norfolk - South Smallburgh LD 36.2 Con 31.1 UKIP 19.9 Lab 8.6 Grn 4.2 Norfolk - Watton Ind 43 Con 39.5 Lab 12.3 Grn 5.2 Surrey LD 26.7 Res 25.6 Lab 17.4 Con 14.2 UKIP 11.8 Grn 4.3 |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 19, 2015 19:40:05 GMT
10 entries this week with Lennon getting 7 x 5 additional faults for being nearly ½ hour late. Arthur Figgis has 0.3 additional faukts for adding to only 99.7% in Gwynedd, Dewi.
Ashford, Aylesford Green: 5 Labour hold with Lennon a tie with Ashford Independent, David Boothroyd, hempie & Pete Whitehead Ashford Independent gain and Tony Otim Conservative gain
Carmarthen, Kidwelly: 7 Labour hold, David Boothroyd & hemple People First gain and Mark Senior Independent B-L gain
Gwynedd, Dewi; 9 Plaid Cymru hold with majority ranging from 10% (Robert Waller) to 40% (Lennon) whilst Arthur Figgis has Labour gain
Gwynedd, Llanaelhaearn: 5 Llais Gwynedd hold, David Boothroyd, hempie & Pete Whitehead Plaid Cymru gain and Mark Senior & Tony Otim Independent gain
Norfolk, South Smallburgh: 9 Liberal Democrat hold with majority ranging from 1.9% (Pete Whitehead) to 12%(hempie), Mark Senior Conservative gain
Norfolk, Watton: 5 Conservative gain from UKIP whilst David Boothroyd, hempie, Mark Senior, Maxque & Tony Otim Independent gain
Surrey, Epsom West: 7 Ratepayer Association gain from Liberal Democrat, hempie, Pete Whitehead & Tony Otim Liberal Democrat hold
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 20, 2015 1:46:42 GMT
Too late to do full results but it looks with Epsom West to come Pete Whitehead ahead for the week with Robert Waller 10.3 faults behind and Tony Otim a further 6.5 adrift. These three are in same position for the month to date.
Full results in the morning.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 20, 2015 8:09:11 GMT
Ashford, Aylesford Green
Pete Whitehead 23.5+10 faults, Lennon 21.3+10+5, Tony Otim 35.5, Robert Waller 27.4+10, Mark Senior 29.3+10, Maxque 33.3+10, David Boothroyd 37.7+10, Arthur Figgis 38.0+10, Greenhert 40.4+10, hempie 41.4+10
Carmarthen, Kidwelly
Lennon 22.8+5faults, Robert Waller 28.3, Maxque 29.2, Tony Otim 31.6, Arthur Figgis 32.4, Pete Whitehead 37.6, Greenhert 37.9, Mark Senior 52.8+10, hempie 54.8+10, David Boothroyd 57.8+10
Gwynedd, Dewi
Maxque 1.9 faults, Tony Otim 6.5, Pete Whitehead 7.8, hempie 8.1, Greenhert 10.1, David Boothroyd 14.1, Mark Senior 16.1, Robert Waller 18.9, Lennon 19.2+5, Arthur Figgis 38.4+0.3+10
Gwynedd, LLanaelhaearn
hempie 9.3 faults, David Boothroyd 10.2, Pete Whitehead 21.1, Robert Waller & Tony Otim 25.3+10, Greenhert 31.5+10, Mark Senior 37.3+10, Arthur Figgis 39.1+10, Lennon 35.5+10+5, Maxque 45.5+10
Norfolk, South Smallburgh
hempie 28.7 faults, Greenhert 32.7, Arthur Figgis 33.7, Pete Whitehead 35.3, David Boothroyd & Robert Waller 36.7, Maxque 38.7, Tony Otim 40.3, Lennon 42.7+5, Mark Senior 50.7+10
Norfolk, Watton
Robert Waller 10.3 faults, Lennon 9.3+5, Arthur Figgis 14.9, Pete Whitehead 20.9, Greenhert 23.3, Tony Otim 14.3+10, hempie 15.3+10, Maxque 18.3+10, David Boothroyd 21.3+10, Mark Senior 27.3+10
and with Surrey, Epsom West result to come, for the week:
Pete Whitehead 156.3 faults, Robert Waller 167.0, Tony Otim 173.5, hempie 187.7, Greenhert 195.9, Maxque 197.0, Lennon 200.9, David Boothroyd 207.8, Arthur Figgis 226.8, Mark Senior 263.5
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Post by lennon on Nov 20, 2015 9:49:21 GMT
LOL - For all the comments about Gwynedd being tricky to predict - Sth Small and Ashford both have higher average faults than both the Gwynedd seats. (39 & 42 vs 16 & 35 by my estimate)
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 20, 2015 11:41:46 GMT
Well that went well.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 20, 2015 12:54:51 GMT
Nobody had the Conservatives higher than 3rd in Epsom. Ah well...
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 20, 2015 13:15:51 GMT
I reckon Greenhert and Arthur Figgis were the best for Epsom, but that Pete wins the week and is at present in the lead for the month as well..
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Post by marksenior on Nov 20, 2015 14:29:09 GMT
I think my worst set of weekly results ............ ever
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): L 50.6, PC 40.1, LD 9.0.
): LG 39.5, Ind 31.4, PC 29.1.
