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Post by greenhert on Nov 11, 2015 23:24:48 GMT
My predictions for this week's by-elections are as follows:
Bridgend UA, Ogmore Vale: Independent (Ralph Shepherd) 35, Lab 30, Plaid Cymru 19, UKIP 12, Con 4.
Conwy UA, Eglwysbach: Plaid Cymru 80, Con 20.
Dorset CC, Rodwell: Lab 34, Con 30, Green 21, UKIP 10, Lib Dem 5.
Shropshire UA, Belle Vue: Lab 52, Con 29, Lib Dem 11, Green 8.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Nov 11, 2015 23:55:59 GMT
Dorset CC, Rodwell: Con 37, Lab 25, Grn 25, UKIP 10, LD 3.
Shropshire UA, Belle Vue: Lab 66, Con 17, Grn 11, LD 6.
Conwy UA, Eglwysbach: PC 70, Con 30.
Bridgend UA, Ogmore Vale: Lab 39, Ind 36, PC 13, Con 7, UKIP 5.
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 11, 2015 23:57:29 GMT
Bridgend UA, Ogmore Vale: Independent (Ralph Shepherd) 47, Lab 25, Plaid Cymru 18, UKIP 6, Con 4.
Conwy UA, Eglwysbach: Plaid Cymru 80, Con 20.
Dorset CC, Rodwell: Lab 26, Con 34, Green 23, UKIP 12, Lib Dem 5.
Shropshire UA, Belle Vue: Lab 48, Con 35, Lib Dem 10, Green 7.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 12, 2015 0:05:13 GMT
Bridgend, Ogmore Vale: Ind 39.3, L 25.7, PC 17.5, UKIP 9.7, C 7.8.
Conwy, Small Church: PC 81, C 19.
Dorset, Rodwell: L 35.6, C 31.5, G 14.5, UKIP 12.3, LD 6.1.
Shropshire, Belle Vue: L 61.8, C 23.6, G 8.1, LD 6.5.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 12, 2015 0:49:44 GMT
BRIDGEND Ogmore Vale: Ind 38, Lab 22, C 20, UKIP 12, PC 8
CONWY Eglwysbach: PC 82, C 18
DORSET Rodwell: C 35, Lab 34, UKIP 16, GP 10, L Dem 5
SHROPSHIRE Belle Vue: Lab 51, C 36, GP 8, L Dem 5
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Post by marksenior on Nov 12, 2015 8:00:53 GMT
Bridgend Ind 38 Lab 28 Plaid 20 Con 10 UKIP 4
Conwy Plaid 78 Con 22
Dorset Con 30 Lab 27 Green 17 LD 14 UKIP 12
Shropshire Lab 52 Con 32 LD 10 Green 6
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Post by hempie on Nov 12, 2015 8:08:09 GMT
Bridgend, Ogmore Vale: Ind 37, Lab 24, UKIP 15, Con 12, PC 12
Conwy, Eglwysbach: PC 80, Con 20
Dorset,Rodwell: Lab 30, Con 27, Green 24, UKIP 12,LD 7
Shropshire, Belle Vue: Lab 51, Con 33,LD 9, Green 7
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 12, 2015 9:33:28 GMT
Dorset CC - Rodway Con 33.3% Lab 28.9% Grn 17.3% UKIP 12.1% LD 8.4% Shrewsbury (sic) UA - Belle Vue Lab 53.6% Con 29.4% LD 9.9% Grn 7.1% Bridgend CC - Ogmore Vale Ind 38.6% Lab 35.9% PC 12.8% UKIP 8.8% Con 3.9% Conwy CC - Eglwysbach PC 79.5% Con 20.5% |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 12, 2015 11:05:00 GMT
Dorset: Con 29.8 Lab 26.2 Grn 23.4 UKIP 12.2 LD 8.4 Shropshire: Lab 54.4 Con 30.2 Grn 9.7 LD 5.7 Conwy: PC 78.4 Con 21.6 Bridgend: Ind 45.2 Lab 29.1 PC 15.9 UKIP 6.4 Con 3.4 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 12, 2015 11:48:17 GMT
10 entries this week all on time and no additional faults
Dorset has 7 predictions of a Conservative gain with majority ranging from 1% (David Boothroyd) to 12% (Maxque) over Labour while Lennon predeicts a 2% lead over UKIP with Labour third.
Arthur Figgis, Greenherts and Hempie predict a Labour hold with a lead of 3-4%
Shropshire 100% Labour hold majority over the Conservatives ranging from 10% (Lennon) to 49% (Maxque)
Bridgend 100% Independent hold majority over Labour ranging from 2.7% (Pete Whitehead) to 22% (Robert Waller)
Conwy 100% PC hold majority ranging from 40% (Lennon and Maxque) to 64% (David Boothroyd)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 12, 2015 23:59:46 GMT
well aren't we doing well with this month lol
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 13, 2015 0:38:26 GMT
Dorset: Maxque & Tonyotim 32.9, Robert Waller 33.7. Hempie 36.7, Greenhert 37.7. Pete Whitehead 45.1, Mark Senior 45.7, Arthur Figgis 50.7, Lennon 58.7, David Boothroyd 59.7
Ogmore: Maxque 20.6, Pete Whitehead 42.0, Mark Senior 52.1, Greenhert 52.2, Tonyotim 55.2, Arthur Figgis 56.2, Lennon 60.2, Robert Waller 62.2, Hempie 62.6, David Boothroyd 74.6
(all the above inclusive of 10 point wrong winner faults excepting Maxque)
Maxque currently ahead for the week and the month
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 13, 2015 0:47:31 GMT
Shropshire: Greenhert 20.0, Robert Waller 22.0, Pete Whitehead 22.2, Mark Senior 23.1, Hempie 24.0, Lennon 27.5, Tonyotim 30.6, Arthur Figgis 31.1, David Boothroyd 32.0, Maxque 45.3
which puts Mark Senior back in the lead for the month - only by five points ahead of Robert Waller with Maxque, greenhert and Pete Whitehead all a couple of points further behind. However given the similarity of the predictions on Conwy, only Maxque can now overturn Mark's lead (if the Plaid lead is substantially less than is generally expected)
Maxque still ahead for week and month about 10 faults ahead of Mark Senior with Robert Waller, greenhert and Pete Whitehead all a few of points further behind
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Nov 13, 2015 1:54:26 GMT
10 entries this week all on time and no additional faults Dorset has 7 predictions of a Conservative gain with majority ranging from 1% (David Boothroyd) to 12% (Maxque) over Labour while Lennon predeicts a 2% lead over UKIP with Labour third. Arthur Figgis, Greenherts and Hempie predict a Labour hold with a lead of 3-4% Shropshire 100% Labour hold majority over the Conservatives ranging from 10% (Lennon) to 49% (Maxque) Bridgend 100% Independent hold majority over Labour ranging from 2.7% (Pete Whitehead) to 22% (Robert Waller) Conwy 100% PC hold majority ranging from 40% (Lennon and Maxque) to 64% (David Boothroyd) I have Lab on 39 and Ind on 36 in Bridgend, so that's false. Probably the same thing for the preliminary results. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 13, 2015 8:26:12 GMT
Yes that's going to have a bit of a bearing on your position
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 13, 2015 8:36:49 GMT
Conwy: David Boothroyd 9.6, Arthur Figgis 11.6, Robert Waller, Greenhert & Hempie 13.6, Pete Whitehead 14.6, Tonyotim 16.8, Mark Senior 17.6, Lennon & Maxque 33.6
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 13, 2015 8:41:03 GMT
So for the week
Greenhert 123.5
Pete Whitehead 123.9
Robert Waller 131.5
Maxque 132.4
Tonyotim 135.5
Hempie 136.9
Mark Senior 138.6
Arthur Figgis 149.7
David Boothroyd 176.0
Lennon 180.0
And the month
Mark Senior 209.6
Robert waller 210.5
Greenhert 212.4
Pete Whitehead 213.8
Maxque 215.9
Hempie 217.8
Tonyotim 223.1
Arthur Figgis 226.5
Lennon 245.5
David Boothroyd 278.9
(all results provisionsal of course)
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 13, 2015 8:43:02 GMT
(Except that I think that the result in what Arthur Figgis called Smallchurch does put Mark Senior into the lead!)
Two ways of looking at the totals:
a) All to play for!
b) Why do we all bother?!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 13, 2015 8:58:41 GMT
Have I made another error? You'll have to wait for Middle Englander to get back before you see a reliable result
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 13, 2015 9:14:17 GMT
Congratulations to greenhert for the week and Mark for the month so far. 2 elections in Gwynedd next week - not expecting our average predictions to improve much  |
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