Prediction Competition for November 2015

[middleenglander]

It looks like 22 by-elections for 23 seats during November.

* 2 on 5th November including one in Aberdeenshire for 2 seats
* 4 on 11th November
* 7 on 19th November
* 9 on 26th November

7 of the contests are in Wales and a further 3 in Scotland, including the one for two seats, where the last elections were in 2012.
The other 12 in England are:
* 5 for County Councils last contested in 2013
* 4 for District Councils last contested in May (1 with annual elections and 3 on a 4 year cycle)
* 3 for Unitary Authorities, 1 contested in May and 2 in 2013

Conservatives are defending 2 seats, both following the death of the previous Councillor
Labour 4 seats, 1 death and 3 resignations
Liberal Democrats 5 seats, 1 death and 4 resignations
SNP 3 seats, 1 death and 2 resignations
Plaid Cymru 2 seats, both resignations
UKIP 1 seat, a resignation
Llais Gwynedd 2 seats, 1 death and 1 resignation
Selston Independent 2 seats, a resignation
Independent 2 seats, both resignations

With all nominations published:
Conservatives and Labour both have 19 candidates for 23 seats, Liberal Democrats 14, UKIP and Green both 12, SNP 3, Plaid Cymru 6 and Llais Gwynedd 2
there are 12 Independents contesting 10 seats along with 2 Selston Parish Independents and 1 each for Ashford Independent, Resident Association, Libertarian, No Description and People First - a total of 106 candidates.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the by-election.

As there is only one candidate from each party contesting the 2 seats in Aberdeenshire, the prediction should be as if for a single seat contest with 5 candidates.

[maxque]

Clifton-with-Maidenway, Torbay: LD 42.9, Con 25.5, UKIP 17.7, Lab 9.4, Grn 4.5
Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford, Aberdeenshire: SNP 41.7, Con 31, LD 18, Lab 9, Libertarian 0.3

[Robert Waller]

Clifton-with-Maidenway, Torbay: LD 43, Con 35, UKIP 12, Lab 5, Grn 5
Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford, Aberdeenshire: SNP 40, Con 28, LD 25, Lab 5, Libertarian 2

[greenhert]

My by-election predictions for this week:

Torbay UA, Clifton-with-Maidenway: Liberal Democrats 42, Con 38, UKIP 9, Lab 6, Green 5.
Aberdeenshire UA, Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford: SNP 42, Con 25, Lib Dem 25, Lab 6, Libertarian 2.

[marksenior]

Torbay LD 48 Con 32 UKIP 10 Lab 7 Green 3
Aberdeenshire SNP 38 Con 27 LD 25 Lab 8 Libert 2

[lennon]

Torbay LD 47 Con 37 UKIP 9 Lab 4 Green 3
Aberdeenshire SNP 40 Con 35 LD 20 Lab 4.5 Libert 0.5

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ABERDEENSHIRE Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford: SNP 49, C 28, L Dem 12, Lab 9, SLP 2
TORBAY Clifton-with-Maidenway: L Dem 42, C 35, UKIP 10, Lab 9, GP 4

[hempie]

Torbay, Clifton-with-Maidenway: LD 46, Con 35, UKIP 10, Lab 5, Green 4
Aberdeenshire, Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford: SNP 45, Con 25, LD 22, Lab 5, Libertarian 3

[Arthur Figgis]

Torbay: LD 44.0, C 30.7, UKIP 13.9, L 6.8, G 4.6.
Aberdeenshire: SNP 43.6, C 30.9, LD 21.3, L 3.7, Lib 0.5.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 4, 2015 23:29:55 GMT petewhitehead said:

Torbay UA - Clifton with Maidenway

LD     38.8%
Con   28.5%
UKIP  13.8%
Lab    12.5%
Grn      6.4%


Aberdeenshire - Huntly, Strathbogie & Howe of Alford

SNP   43.0%
Con   28.1%
LD     21.6%
Lab     6.2%
Lib      1.1%

[Tony Otim]

Nov 4, 2015 10:02:54 GMT tonyotim said:

Torbay:
LD 38.3
Con 31.5
UKIP 14.5
Lab 10.1
Grn 5.6


Aberdeenshire:
SNP 39.8
Con 28.4
LD 24.4
Lab 5.2
Libertarian 2.2
(1st Seat obviously to SNP, Con just to hold the second after transfers significantly narrow gap)

[middleenglander]

10 entries this week with Arthur Figgis joining the motley crew who braved October to the end.

Aberdeenshire, Huntly, Strathbogie & Howe of Alford: 100% SNP ahead on first preference with Conservative second or equal second (Greenhert)
- first preference lead ranges from 5% (Lennon) to 21% (David Boothroyd)
Torbay, Clifton with Maidenway: 100% Liberal Democrat hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 4% (Greenhert) to 17.4% (Maxque)

[middleenglander]

Torbay, Clifton with Maidenway
Mark Senior 42.4 faults, Lennon 46.3, Hempie 46.4, Arthur Figgis 50.4, Robert Waller 52.4, Maxque 52.6, David Boothroyd 54.4, Greenhert 56.3, Pete Whitehead 60.8, Tony Otim 61.8

[Pete Whitehead]

Terrible - really should have anticipated that outcome at least in essentials even if not in scale

[Tony Otim]

Yeah. I did wonder if it would end up being a big LD win, given the candidate, but chickened out of going for that. Ah well.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to lennon who I think has come top this week

[lennon]

Nov 6, 2015 12:27:11 GMT Tony Otim said:

Congratulations to lennon who I think has come top this week

Thanks. Given previous performances I am tempted to say something about stopped clocks etc. ;-)

[Robert Waller]

I second Tony's point - I think Lennon then Mark Senior - well done!

[middleenglander]

Aberdeenshire, Huntly, Strathbogie & Howe of Alford
Lennon 9.2+10 faults, Tony Otim 15.8+10, Arthur Figgis 16.4+10, Robert Waller 16.6+10, Mark Senior 18.6+10, Pete Whitehead 19.1+10, Maxque 20.9+10, Greenhert 22.6+10, hempie 24.5+10, David Boothroyd 38.5+10

Torbay, Clifton with Maidenway
Mark Senior 42.4 faults, Lennon 46.3, hempie 46.4, Arthur Figgis 50.4, Robert Waller 52.4, Maxque 52.6, David Boothroyd 54.4, Greenhert 56.3, Pete Whitehead 60.8, Tony Otim 61.8

and for the first week of November:

65.5 Lennon
71.0 Mark Senior

76.8 Arthur Figgis
79.0 Robert Waller

80.9 hempie
83.5 Maxque

87.6 Tony Otim
88.9 Greenhert

89.9 Pete Whitehead
102.9 David Boothroyd

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 4 by-elections next week, predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday

We are away for a couple of days next week, so the official results will not be posted until late Friday or Saturday morning.

[lennon]

My Predictions for this week...

Bridgend UA, Ogmore Vale: Con 5%, Lab 25%, PC 20%, UKIP 15%, Ind 35%
Conwy UA, Eglwysbach: Con 30%, PC 70%

Dorset CC, Rodwell: Con 25%, Lab 22%, LD 15%, UKIP 23%, Green 15%
Shropshire UA, Belle Vue: Con 30%, Lab 40%, LD 15%, Green 15%