The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 23, 2015 17:11:36 GMT
Indeed, that is precisely why he is FOTH.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2015 20:07:50 GMT
For what it is worth here are the first set of bookies odds In due course I could put up a prediction poll on this thread on request, if anyone here is brave enough to think a party other than Labour might actually win. Maybe a poll with suggestions of how many votes the LibDems would get will be more of a challenge. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2015 20:46:43 GMT
Just seen this on Political Betting
Not much really accurate, there.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 23, 2015 21:52:44 GMT
In due course I could put up a prediction poll on this thread on request, if anyone here is brave enough to think a party other than Labour might actually win. Maybe a poll with suggestions of how many votes the LibDems would get will be more of a challenge. Perhaps a frame for a forecast instead of a poll. Could the construct provide a running live average forecast? |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 23, 2015 22:17:57 GMT
Selecting a candidate within a couple of days of the late incumbents death? Classy. Come, come! We were on here talking about it within the hour. 'The King is Dead long live the King'! That is how the world has always worked. We all know that and life must move on. We are many decades away from formal grief, from agreed norms of mourning and the other trappings of death. There is no discourtesy and it is a form of hypocrisy to pretend to feelings we do not have. Some feel that nothing should happen until the funeral is held and that is a reasonable practice but no reason why it should be a rule all must follow. Sometimes funerals can be long delayed and increasingly the non-religious don't have one at all. It is a pity if friends and family take offence at moves made because they need to be made. The new monarch is proclaimed at once. The dead officer is replaced at once, as is the dead manager or minister of religion.....because things continue. The need to swiftly replace is in a way testament to the importance of the role performed by the deceased. |
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tim
UKIP
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Post by tim on Oct 23, 2015 22:48:09 GMT
Selecting a candidate within a couple of days of the late incumbents death? Classy. They probably think labour will issue a writ and UKIP and others will have to have their nominations in before the deceased is buried like when Jim Dobbin the Heywood and Middleton MP died in 2014. Thus ensuring another party wont have long to campaign and gain political momentum the electors wont be without an MP for long. If you are to condemn UKIP for this are you also going to condemn others for commenting on this website and ladbrokes for setting by-elections odds and people betting on it. Thought not. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 23, 2015 23:00:46 GMT
I can understand why people are upset about the issue whenever it happens but unfortunately if you hold a public office or are some sort of celebrity there is a public aspect to your demise. Due to my having been a councillor for twelve years I know that whenever I pop my clogs my going will be recorded at the next council meeting. This could be forty years hence or it could be next week. This is a "recognition" that will not be afforded to 99.9% of borough residents who shuffle off the mortal coil. And conversely if I had exited stage left when still in office, I imagine the phone calls would have started, well, quite soon after.Not least because the next selection/election might not have been far away anyway/other people fancied a safe seat etc. It's just the way it is.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 24, 2015 1:23:54 GMT
I hadn't realised quite how divided this constituency is. In Chadderton, Royton and Hollinwood (6 wards) the 2015 local election results were Lab 46.1%, UKIP 27.1%, Con 19.8%, LD 3.6%, Green 3.4%. These wards are 89.4% white and 6.6% Bangladeshi/Pakistani. In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani. www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/764/general_election_and_local_election_results_-_2015 |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 24, 2015 7:12:35 GMT
Selecting a candidate within a couple of days of the late incumbents death? Classy. Come, come! We were on here talking about it within the hour. If this forum is the barometer for being classy, god help us all. |
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Post by thirdchill on Oct 24, 2015 7:18:53 GMT
I hadn't realised quite how divided this constituency is. In Chadderton, Royton and Hollinwood (6 wards) the 2015 local election results were Lab 46.1%, UKIP 27.1%, Con 19.8%, LD 3.6%, Green 3.4%. These wards are 89.4% white and 6.6% Bangladeshi/Pakistani. In the other 3 wards — Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth — the 2015 local election results were Lab 63.8%, UKIP 17.0%, Con 8.4%, LD 8.4%, Green 2.4%. These wards are 37.0% white and 53.7% Bangladeshi/Pakistani. www.oldham.gov.uk/homepage/764/general_election_and_local_election_results_-_2015Interesting info. Ukip may well have been in with a good shout if the seat was just the first 6 wards. The demographic makeup would have been similar to Heywood and Middleton. However the final 3 wards will almost certainly ensure a labour victory, unless there is a total meltdown in the other 6 wards. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2015 8:15:48 GMT
I can understand why people are upset about the issue whenever it happens but unfortunately if you hold a public office or are some sort of celebrity there is a public aspect to your demise. Due to my having been a councillor for twelve years I know that whenever I pop my clogs my going will be recorded at the next council meeting. This could be forty years hence or it could be next week. This is a "recognition" that will not be afforded to 99.9% of borough residents who shuffle off the mortal coil. And conversely if I had exited stage left when still in office, I imagine the phone calls would have started, well, quite soon after.Not least because the next selection/election might not have been far away anyway/other people fancied a safe seat etc. It's just the way it is. Look at Dunny-on-the-Wold. No sooner had Blackadder discovered that Sir Talbot Buxomley was dead, he was announcing Mr. Sodoff Baldrick as the new candidate. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 24, 2015 11:02:47 GMT
New report on the Oldham Labour selection. this is from the Tory Shillograph Daily Telegraph so do take with a pinch of salt. Having said that the story does sound plausible. The Corbynistas have few backbench allies and need to take every opportunity they can get to put more into Parliament. If they do however it could cause the right of the party to fear that this is a foretaste of boundary change reselections to come. Could be interesting www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11952042/Labour-warned-upcoming-by-election-could-become-next-Falkirk-vote-rigging-scandal.htmlI'm assuming 'moderate Labour MPs' means disgruntled Blairites. My personal guess would be that 'one' means Simon Danczuk (if he's not too busy preparing for I'm a Celebrity get me out of here) but it could be someone else. "Labour is being warned that the seat is being lined up for someone who has already ruled himself out". |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 24, 2015 11:42:04 GMT
It wouldn't strike me as very sensible for Labour to select a candidate who would publicly admit to not supporting the current leader.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 24, 2015 11:45:09 GMT
"Labour is being warned that the seat is being lined up for someone who has already ruled himself out". It wouldn't have to be Lansman himself but given that the Corbynistas have just lost one of their few backbench allies they'd be foolish not to try to replace him with another. Or alternatively would make no difference whatsoever.... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2015 11:49:22 GMT
It wouldn't strike me as very sensible for Labour to select a candidate who would publicly admit to not supporting the current leader. As custom & practice by the NEC is generally to replace like for like in this situation then a candidate with similar views to Meacher would be unsurprising. The only way I can see this not being the case is if local members were to chose Jim McMahon. But whatever the candidates political views they should have some kind of local/ north west links I'd suggest. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 24, 2015 11:53:10 GMT
It wouldn't strike me as very sensible for Labour to select a candidate who would publicly admit to not supporting the current leader. The main priority would be to select a candidate who can think on their feet and deal with such questions in an intelligent and possibly amusing way. This is always the priority really but it doesn't seem to occur to people above other concerns. Can the candidate whoever she/he is cope with being the focus of everything (regardless of their ideological positioning)? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 24, 2015 12:01:48 GMT
It wouldn't strike me as very sensible for Labour to select a candidate who would publicly admit to not supporting the current leader. The main priority would be to select a candidate who can think on their feet and deal with such questions in an intelligent and possibly amusing way. This is always the priority really but it doesn't seem to occur to people above other concerns. Can the candidate whoever she/he is cope with being the focus of everything (regardless of their ideological positioning)? True, but if they are asked "Are you happy for Jeremy Corbyn to lead Labour into the 2020 election?" they need a convincing answer. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 24, 2015 12:08:54 GMT
It wouldn't strike me as very sensible for Labour to select a candidate who would publicly admit to not supporting the current leader. The main priority would be to select a candidate who can think on their feet and deal with such questions in an intelligent and possibly amusing way. This is always the priority really but it doesn't seem to occur to people above other concerns. Can the candidate whoever she/he is cope with being the focus of everything (regardless of their ideological positioning)? That is so important and so often missed by the major parties. There really needs to be a separate set of rules and a small cadre of specialist candidates for these high profile events. Even if there is no chance of winning it would be good to field a brilliant candidate to counterpoint the fact that the winner is fairly duff. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 24, 2015 12:10:16 GMT
The main priority would be to select a candidate who can think on their feet and deal with such questions in an intelligent and possibly amusing way. This is always the priority really but it doesn't seem to occur to people above other concerns. Can the candidate whoever she/he is cope with being the focus of everything (regardless of their ideological positioning)? True, but if they are asked "Are you happy for Jeremy Corbyn to lead Labour into the 2020 election?" they need a convincing answer. Depends what you mean by "convincing" Alan. Most of these questions are asked during campaigns as a stick to beat people with however they answer. The job of the candidate is to deal with it as best they can, and hopefully better. If it wasn't this it would be something else. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 24, 2015 13:51:35 GMT
Joint longest in the latter case, as I'm sure Sir Gerald would remind you  Chanelling the spirit of johnloony, you'll find that Kaufman took his oath first. Indeed, he was third in line (if you will) to be FotH, Ken Clarke is 2nd, Dennis Skinner now moves up to 3rd. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_by_seniority,_2015%E2%80%9320#List_of_Members_of_Parliament_by_seniority EDIT: Not sure why that link wont work - copy and paste it to see the list. |
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