The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 5, 2016 10:01:20 GMT
No, they appear to be reporting the "old" figures. You would have to ask them why.....
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 5, 2016 17:21:36 GMT
The critical figure in referendum polling is usually the 'change' option: people who say they're undecided but who end up voting anyway overwhelmingly break towards maintaining the status quo (whatever it is). Right now unless the polls are wrong then Leave is not strong enough to win unless most people who aren't sure decide just not to bother.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 6, 2016 10:56:27 GMT
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 6, 2016 11:18:52 GMT
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Jun 6, 2016 12:03:17 GMT
I'm starting to think it might actually be possible.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 6, 2016 12:58:35 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 6, 2016 18:03:32 GMT
Embarrassing.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 8, 2016 20:55:52 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 9, 2016 9:51:27 GMT
An interesting finding from ComRes. It's long been observed that older voters become more likely to vote Leave. ComRes has discovered that this trend stops and reverses over the age of 75. In other words, a majority of those voters who can remember the Second World War are voting Remain. It's the selfish Boomer generation who are voting Leave.
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Jun 9, 2016 9:57:34 GMT
In other words, the generation who can remember decimilisation (just) and think it was the fault of the EU?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2016 11:33:27 GMT
Of course, it *is* ComRes - but that also backs up my anecdotal experiences to some extent.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 9, 2016 12:09:13 GMT
An interesting finding from ComRes. It's long been observed that older voters become more likely to vote Leave. ComRes has discovered that this trend stops and reverses over the age of 75. In other words, a majority of those voters who can remember the Second World War are voting Remain. It's the selfish Boomer generation who are voting Leave. How many 75+ are sampled in the average poll? Presumably the margin of error for these subsamples is pretty high so could just be random fluctuation.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 9, 2016 12:30:46 GMT
Of course, it *is* ComRes - but that also backs up my anecdotal experiences to some extent. Mine too. I have also found the much older people are suprisingly strong for Remain. I wonder if there's an element of our old friend 'deference' going on there. These people will have come of age in the late 1950s (or earlier) at a time when there was mush more respect for political leaders and institutions - before Profumo, TWTWTW and etc. My own father who is in that age group remains undecided, despite being one of those many who claims that they wouldn't have voted Yes in 1975 had they known what would follow, and despite having become very disillusioned with Cameron who he initially supported as leader. I think he still has a sense that the PM and Chancellor must be telling the truth.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 9, 2016 13:26:09 GMT
An interesting finding from ComRes. It's long been observed that older voters become more likely to vote Leave. ComRes has discovered that this trend stops and reverses over the age of 75. In other words, a majority of those voters who can remember the Second World War are voting Remain. It's the selfish Boomer generation who are voting Leave. Another explanation is that poorer people obviously don't live as long as wealthier people and therefore over 75 you're going to get a skew towards middle-class voters who are more likely to support Remain. Also those over 75 who are alive but not in a fit condition to cast a vote are going to be skewed towards those who would have voted Leave.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 9, 2016 13:30:22 GMT
An interesting finding from ComRes. It's long been observed that older voters become more likely to vote Leave. ComRes has discovered that this trend stops and reverses over the age of 75. In other words, a majority of those voters who can remember the Second World War are voting Remain. It's the selfish Boomer generation who are voting Leave. Another explanation is that poorer people obviously don't live as long as wealthier people and therefore over 75 you're going to get a skew towards middle-class voters who are more likely to support Remain. Also those over 75 who are alive but not in a fit condition to cast a vote are going to be skewed towards those who would have voted Leave. Also more women of course
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Post by froome on Jun 9, 2016 15:22:16 GMT
I think all the above comments pick up some of the reasons why the over 75s are more likely to vote Remain than those aged from 45-75. Memories of the Second World war and its aftermath, and that there are a higher percentage of female voters, may be the two greatest factors.
The baby boom generation, like myself, who are now in our sixties, have done pretty well out of life and probably tend to see things through rose-tinted glasses, harking back to the post-war times of peace and prosperity. Many just want to return to those days, and think that by leaving the EU, we will somehow get there.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 9, 2016 15:27:44 GMT
Amusing, but you shouldn't believe (as in: as fact) poll internals from any outfit, even the ones with a relatively good reputation.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 9, 2016 16:25:29 GMT
Totally anecdotal but a couple of people of my acquaintance who are both well over 80 and who I previously assumed would have been certain to vote leave have told me in recent weeks that they are unsure about their vote. Both questioned whether people of their advanced age should have a say on a decision that would have little effect on them during their remaining years but would potentially have seriously consequences for their grandchildren.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Jun 9, 2016 17:14:51 GMT
Amusing, but you shouldn't believe (as in: as fact) poll internals from any outfit, even the ones with a relatively good reputation. But they did such a good job of last year's election...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2016 18:41:36 GMT
Totally anecdotal but a couple of people of my acquaintance who are both well over 80 and who I previously assumed would have been certain to vote leave have told me in recent weeks that they are unsure about their vote. Both questioned whether people of their advanced age should have a say on a decision that would have little effect on them during their remaining years but would potentially have seriously consequences for their grandchildren. Interesting, as the average age at debates has been 50+, & a part of my 'pitch' has been for them to talk to their children & grandchildren, as it's their futures we're taking about ....
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