The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
|
Post by The Bishop on May 20, 2016 16:41:37 GMT
Well, up to a point m'lud. Though the fact they are not a BPC member is bound to be noticed.
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on May 21, 2016 10:55:22 GMT
The telephone survey was conducted by a company called Feedback Market Research , a name not on everyones tip of the tongue as a renowned political telephone pollster and not a member of the BPC . Surely YouGov wouldn't use them unless they regarded the firm as reliable. "I say Grytepype.................Who is this gullible fool.................And what can we sell him?" |
|
|
|
Post by tonygreaves on May 24, 2016 18:27:46 GMT
Has everyone got bored with these polls? They have suddenly got a bit more interesting though it may be that Outers can't face them...
The Grauniad yesterday reported three most recent polls:
COMRES 17 May: R 52 L 41 DK 7
YouGov 17 May: R 44 L 40 DK 15
Opinium 19 May: R 44 L 40 DK 16
Today's ORB poll in the Daily Telegraph (hardly a bastion of pro-EU sentiment) shows a 20% lead for R after removal of DKs - R 58 L 38. This becomes R 55 L 42 of people "certain to vote".
It also shows a lead amongst Con voters of R 57 L 40 (which on the same poll in March was 34-60 the other way). Over-65s are now R 52 L 44.
These are extraordinary figures and may of course be garbage! But they are interesting.
|
|
pomofaced
Non-Aligned
Galactic Space Fascist
Posts: 1,013 
|
Post by pomofaced on May 24, 2016 20:34:19 GMT
Has everyone got bored with these polls? They have suddenly got a bit more interesting though it may be that Outers can't face them... The Grauniad yesterday reported three most recent polls: COMRES 17 May: R 52 L 41 DK 7YouGov 17 May: R 44 L 40 DK 15
Opinium 19 May: R 44 L 40 DK 16
Today's ORB poll in the Daily Telegraph (hardly a bastion of pro-EU sentiment) shows a 20% lead for R after removal of DKs - R 58 L 38. This becomes R 55 L 42 of people "certain to vote". It also shows a lead amongst Con voters of R 57 L 40 (which on the same poll in March was 34-60 the other way). Over-65s are now R 52 L 44.
These are extraordinary figures and may of course be garbage! But they are interesting. I did see that. Pretty damning for us leavers |
|
peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
|
Post by peterl on May 24, 2016 20:40:46 GMT
The polls have been so up and down over the last few months that I'm taking all of it with a pinch of salt until the results come out.
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on May 24, 2016 20:59:53 GMT
The polls have been so up and down over the last few months that I'm taking all of it with a pinch of salt until the results come out. Why 'take' them at all? You have a finger too. Wet it and stick it in the air. Cut out the middle man! |
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,720
|
Post by Jack on May 24, 2016 21:05:28 GMT
Has everyone got bored with these polls? They have suddenly got a bit more interesting though it may be that Outers can't face them... The Grauniad yesterday reported three most recent polls: COMRES 17 May: R 52 L 41 DK 7YouGov 17 May: R 44 L 40 DK 15
Opinium 19 May: R 44 L 40 DK 16
Today's ORB poll in the Daily Telegraph (hardly a bastion of pro-EU sentiment) shows a 20% lead for R after removal of DKs - R 58 L 38. This becomes R 55 L 42 of people "certain to vote". It also shows a lead amongst Con voters of R 57 L 40 (which on the same poll in March was 34-60 the other way). Over-65s are now R 52 L 44.
These are extraordinary figures and may of course be garbage! But they are interesting. I'm hoping for another 2015 mess up by the pollsters, but I'm not expecting it. |
|
|
|
Post by tonygreaves on May 26, 2016 10:51:43 GMT
Evening Standard had an Opinium poll yesterday of 1000 people in London showing much more pro-Remain than the country as a whole. (Lead of 20% instead of 4%). Inner London was about 2 to 1. All very curious.
|
|
|
|
Post by mrhell on May 26, 2016 11:17:02 GMT
Evening Standard had an Opinium poll yesterday of 1000 people in London showing much more pro-Remain than the country as a whole. (Lead of 20% instead of 4%). Inner London was about 2 to 1. All very curious. Looking at an article it is interesting as online polls such as this one have shown a tighter race than phone polls. However, it might just be London. |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on May 26, 2016 11:29:28 GMT
Evening Standard had an Opinium poll yesterday of 1000 people in London showing much more pro-Remain than the country as a whole. (Lead of 20% instead of 4%). Inner London was about 2 to 1. All very curious. Nothing curious at all. London is full of foreigners or 'nearly foreigners' with ideas inimical to and different to that of the host indigenous population. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,818
|
Post by john07 on May 29, 2016 16:56:20 GMT
The polls have been so up and down over the last few months that I'm taking all of it with a pinch of salt until the results come out. The Golden Rule in constitutional change referenda is that unless the side advocating 'change' have at least 60%, maybe even two thirds, of the vote goining into the campaign, they haven't got a prayer of winning. This has played out several times including the 1975 EEC referendum, the recent AV fiasco and first referendum on a Scottish Parliament in 1979. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 31, 2016 8:16:09 GMT
New ORB poll People certain to voteI wonder if taking only those certain to vote is the best way of delivering an accurate poll. With no benchmarks available the pollsters have adopted some wildly differing ways of trying to adjust raw findings for a national result "forecast". |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
|
Post by The Bishop on May 31, 2016 9:25:13 GMT
New ORB poll People certain to voteI wonder if taking only those certain to vote is the best way of delivering an accurate poll. With no benchmarks available the pollsters have adopted some wildly differing ways of trying to adjust raw findings for a national result "forecast". Well, we do have two previous major referendums in the past decade...... |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 31, 2016 17:07:52 GMT
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
|
Post by Sibboleth on May 31, 2016 18:39:20 GMT
It obviously makes no sense for the one poll to show significant movement and the other very little. My suspicion is that the polling industry hasn't got a clue what it's doing (no change there there then).
|
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on May 31, 2016 19:10:34 GMT
It obviously makes no sense for the one poll to show significant movement and the other very little. My suspicion is that the polling industry hasn't got a clue what it's doing (no change there there then). Or it's just normal random fluctuation within the margin of error. I would be more suspicious if the phone and online polls always moved in lockstep with each other. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 1, 2016 10:00:50 GMT
These surveys were taken over the bank holiday weekend, I note - I thought pollsters were cautious about that sort of thing?
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
|
Post by Sibboleth on Jun 1, 2016 18:41:57 GMT
It is no longer in their pecuniary interest to be cautious.
|
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 1, 2016 18:53:10 GMT
New ORB poll People certain to voteI wonder if taking only those certain to vote is the best way of delivering an accurate poll. With no benchmarks available the pollsters have adopted some wildly differing ways of trying to adjust raw findings for a national result "forecast". But just because people say they're "certain to vote" ...... |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Jun 5, 2016 0:20:38 GMT
|
|
