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Post by carlton43 on Apr 16, 2016 14:29:27 GMT
Is it thought that the Leave Vote is keener and more certain to turn out than the Remain? I don't know but I would have thought that the people wanting to leave have a greater impetus and stronger inherent desire? If so, then Remain needs a good 5% lead for a break-even and a 10% lead for a confident win.
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 16, 2016 20:00:01 GMT
Slack water.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 16, 2016 20:45:37 GMT
Is it thought that the Leave Vote is keener and more certain to turn out than the Remain? I don't know but I would have thought that the people wanting to leave have a greater impetus and stronger inherent desire? If so, then Remain needs a good 5% lead for a break-even and a 10% lead for a confident win. OTOH is it not the case that don't knows/undecided tend to split toward the status quo? |
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 17, 2016 0:26:04 GMT
Turnout is probably the key here. Leave voters will be strongly commited to voting, the remain team must get their vote out. If they do, I am sure they will win handily, if they dont Leave could edge it!
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 17, 2016 19:21:07 GMT
Turnout is probably the key here. Leave voters will be strongly commited to voting, the remain team must get their vote out. If they do, I am sure they will win handily, if they dont Leave could edge it! That's pretty much how I've been thinking it will go. |
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hedgehog
Non-Aligned
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Post by hedgehog on Apr 17, 2016 22:46:33 GMT
Turnout is probably the key here. Leave voters will be strongly commited to voting, the remain team must get their vote out. If they do, I am sure they will win handily, if they dont Leave could edge it! That's pretty much how I've been thinking it will go. There is also the fact that older voters are more likely to vote and more likely to be in the leave camp. |
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Post by swindonlad on Apr 29, 2016 11:34:53 GMT
What surprises me with these polls is they are so far off the odds for the referendum; either there is some serious money to be made by backing Brexit or the pollsters are going to have another bad day
Current odds:
Remain 1/3 (71% chance)
Leave 9/4 (29% chance)
The odds on the turnout are showing 60-70% as odds on favorite
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Post by mrhell on May 19, 2016 22:23:27 GMT
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,720
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Post by Jack on May 19, 2016 22:56:40 GMT
It's not even going to be close, is it?
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Post by carlton43 on May 20, 2016 0:11:05 GMT
Events over the last 10 days or absence of relevant events, coupled with level of turnout on the day, will be the principal drivers of the result.
A dull run up with many switched right off from whole proceedings............wet miserable day...........Lowish turnout.....Close result.
Some terrorism, mass movement of people from Calais causing disruption to ferries and tunnel, wider appreciation of stats on costs of migrants and refugees, heavy publicity of figures of non-born-British affecting schooling/housing/jobs/wages...............Leave wins comfortably.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on May 20, 2016 10:38:09 GMT
I think it will be close. As Carlton says, decisive events in the last few days could alter the dynamic, and there are a number of things on the boil at present (such as the EU Army and TTIP) that if in the news in the final days could tip a lot of people to vote Leave. But otherwise, I'd expect from the general trend in the polls that it will be within 5 points either way at most.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 20, 2016 11:46:16 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on May 20, 2016 11:52:10 GMT
I am totally 'out of the loop' with the Leave Campaign so I don't know the strategy or final end game tactics. If I was running it, there would be a massive box full of juicy sound bites of knocking copy to be unloaded day-by-day over the final 6-days. That would miss the postal votes but I think those are usually from committed voters. It would be cumulative not just day after day but hour after hour, heavy on humour and sarcasm and in some cases deeply personal against a handful of British and European politicians. Too late to counter and to attempt rebuttal other than flim-flam and outrage. I would calculate to cause quite a bit of offence and to cause as many impromptu outbursts from the 'usual suspects' as possible. If handled adroitly I think I could cause a lot of damage and provoke at least a handful of very inappropriate responses thus wrong-footing Remain. The object must be to shake out every last Leave-leaning vote and to stall every possible slightly Remain-leaning voter at home. Humour, sarcasm and finely-tuned xenophobia could just do this. Make it very un-cool to be Remain and make them look cheap, silly and anti-British. Tar them with being in the pocket of global big business, American interests, the German-French Axis, international banking and the highly paid political classes who get rich pickings out of it.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,720
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Post by Jack on May 20, 2016 13:07:01 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on May 20, 2016 13:50:15 GMT
My hunch at the moment is that the result is going to be pretty much 50/50 in England, which means Remain should win unless the polls in Scotland are completely wrong. |
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sdoerr
Conservative
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Post by sdoerr on May 20, 2016 15:17:04 GMT
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Post by marksenior on May 20, 2016 15:42:45 GMT
The telephone survey was conducted by a company called Feedback Market Research , a name not on everyones tip of the tongue as a renowned political telephone pollster and not a member of the BPC . |
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Post by carlton43 on May 20, 2016 16:08:09 GMT
There are damned lies.............Statistics.............then damned graphs attempting to look scientific and professional..........................But actually complete bollocks. EDIT Since when has National Car Parks been a respected polling body? |
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Post by finsobruce on May 20, 2016 16:25:46 GMT
There are damned lies.............Statistics.............then damned graphs attempting to look scientific and professional..........................But actually complete bollocks. EDIT Since when has National Car Parks been a respected polling body? Apparently... Number Cruncher Politics is a non-partisan blog focused on UK psephology, statistical analysis, opinion polls and politics . Weirdos!  |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 20, 2016 16:30:59 GMT
The telephone survey was conducted by a company called Feedback Market Research , a name not on everyones tip of the tongue as a renowned political telephone pollster and not a member of the BPC . Surely YouGov wouldn't use them unless they regarded the firm as reliable. |
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