The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2015 16:31:47 GMT
The latest survey - using the exact proposed referendum wording - gives a 19 point lead for "Remain". Still, its by ComedyResults so etc etc  |
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Post by Ben Walker on Oct 13, 2015 14:30:06 GMT
Does anyone know where I'd be able to find tables on attitudes to the EU (in particular on intentions to leave/stay) since 1973? Primarily looking for date pre-2000.
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tim
UKIP
Posts: 602 
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Post by tim on Oct 24, 2015 11:43:43 GMT
On closer inspection this is very good for the leave side. There is an obvious age demographic where all 3 of the age groups up to 44 years old want to stay on the EU whilst the 3 age groups 45yrs+ old want to leave. Older voters are known to have much higher voting turnout than younger voters. Also on pages 2-4 they ask people how enthusiastic they are about the EU referendum. People were graded from 10(very enthusiastic) to 1(no enthusiasm). The mean response was 5.64 for those going to vote to stay in and 7.31 for those going to vote to leave. Assuming this greater enthusiasm for the referendum translates to higher voting turnout this is vey significant. 33% of those who said they would vote to leave said they were a 10/v enthusiastic about the referendum but only 9% of those who wanted to stay in said the same. |
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Post by independentukip on Nov 7, 2015 1:44:14 GMT
About time Sinn Fein changed their name to the Irish for "Ourselves combined with all of Europe", or some such.
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tim
UKIP
Posts: 602
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Post by tim on Nov 7, 2015 11:34:01 GMT
Good spot PJ. I was wondering about NI most of the main polls seem to miss it. It splits on nationlist/unionist lines even more than I suspected it would. Looking at the concerns of the 24% undecided unionist vote. Point 3 can be argued that leaving the EU can give us a table at the WTO which we cant have at the minute because we are "representated" by the EU. Of which we are 1 member out of 28 and have less influence than France and particularly Germany anyway. So hopefully most of that chunk will end up voting to leave. We could do with a republican/nationalist who takes up the leave campaign. I'm not knowledgable enough about NI politics to know one. But if someone can be found who can campaign effectively and chip the nationist stay vote down to 70-80% then NI could be v tight overall. If no-one from that community argues leave then you are just going to see some stunningly one sided votes in nationlist areas. Lets hope for some rain and a low turnout on the day there |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2015 10:37:46 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2015 14:45:59 GMT
Someone from reddit did some rough calculations Discounting don't knows, that gives: England: Remain 48%, Leave 52% Scotland: Remain 65%, Leave 35% Wales: Remain 53%, Leave 47% Or by population: England: 53.010m, 25.449m Remain, 27.561m Leave Scotland: 5.295m, 3.442m Remain, 1.853m Leave Wales 3.064m, 1.624m Remain, 1.440m Leave Which comes to 30.515m Remain and 30.854m Leave. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2015 15:09:02 GMT
So I have revised to electorate with a 80% turnout as #EUref should be as popular as the Scottish Indyref
England 38,806,649 (31,045,320 voting) 14,901,753 Remain 16,143,567 Leave
Scotland 4,094,784 (3,275,827 voting) 2,129,287 Remain 1,146,539 Leave
Wales 2,282,297 (1,825,837 voting) 967,693 Remain 858,143 Leave
Total 17,999,433 Remain 18,148,249 Leave
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,913
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 11, 2015 17:10:53 GMT
I would be amazed if turnout got anywhere near 80%.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,818
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Post by john07 on Nov 11, 2015 23:34:39 GMT
I would be amazed if turnout got anywhere near 80%. It will in Scotland! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 12, 2015 14:51:00 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,867
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 24, 2015 1:26:08 GMT
ORB polled for the "Indy" 52:48 - for leaving! (Last month it was 47:53, before that 45:55.)
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tim
UKIP
Posts: 602
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Post by tim on Dec 16, 2015 22:34:46 GMT
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tim
UKIP
Posts: 602
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Post by tim on Dec 16, 2015 22:46:31 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2015 10:42:51 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 17, 2015 11:04:32 GMT
I see some people are swooning over the Lord Ashcroft poll - "20k SAMPLE! WOW!!" In actual fact, a poll of that size is no more intrinsically reliable than the more usual 1k-2k surveys - indeed if the original methodology is flawed, a bigger sample could make it more "wrong" not less.
Also, there were two phone surveys earlier this week - ComRes and MORI - both showing big "Remain" leads. The difference between internet and telephone surveys on this is becoming quite marked now (their results on VI and other stuff is much more similar) and I would be interested in possible explanations?
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tim
UKIP
Posts: 602
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Post by tim on Dec 17, 2015 12:35:36 GMT
Yes v different Bish. Looking at the mori poll I noticed they put both UKIP and Lib Dems on 9%. On the ICM poll it had 258 people intending to vote UKIP and only 118 Lib Dems. ICM also asked people how they had voted at the general election and found the ratio of UKIP:Lib dem voters was 234/146, which was pretty much the ratio it was at the general election. That would make me have a lot more faith in the ICM poll being representative. If mori don't ask how people voted at the general election how do they know they have a good representative sample of actual voters across the spectrum?
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tim
UKIP
Posts: 602
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Post by tim on Dec 17, 2015 13:06:53 GMT
The comres poll asked the same question twice and got a significantly different answer!
Q1. Thinking back to the General Election earlier this year, which party, if any, did you vote for? Was it Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP or some other party, or did you not vote?
Base: All respondents
First page (%) Last Page (%)
Tory 25 25
Labour 21 24
Lib Dems 5 6
UKIP 9 6
SNP 3 3
Others 4 5
Did not vote 25 23
dont remember 1 1
refused 6 7
Now the first answer looks v representative. But the second does n't. If you add 50% to each party to compensate for the did not vote etc then the % are about right in the first one but in the second labour is too high and UKIP too low.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2015 20:31:23 GMT
I see some people are swooning over the Lord Ashcroft poll - "20k SAMPLE! WOW!!" In actual fact, a poll of that size is no more intrinsically reliable than the more usual 1k-2k surveys - indeed if the original methodology is flawed, a bigger sample could make it more "wrong" not less. Also, there were two phone surveys earlier this week - ComRes and MORI - both showing big "Remain" leads. The difference between internet and telephone surveys on this is becoming quite marked now (their results on VI and other stuff is much more similar) and I would be interested in possible explanations? People being embarrassed to admit to being outers. Don't want people thinking you are a Nigel Fanboy |
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tim
UKIP
Posts: 602
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Post by tim on Dec 18, 2015 16:39:42 GMT
I see some people are swooning over the Lord Ashcroft poll - "20k SAMPLE! WOW!!" In actual fact, a poll of that size is no more intrinsically reliable than the more usual 1k-2k surveys - indeed if the original methodology is flawed, a bigger sample could make it more "wrong" not less. Also, there were two phone surveys earlier this week - ComRes and MORI - both showing big "Remain" leads. The difference between internet and telephone surveys on this is becoming quite marked now (their results on VI and other stuff is much more similar) and I would be interested in possible explanations? People being embarrassed to admit to being outers. Don't want people thinking you are a Nigel Fanboy Not sure about that - it does n't stop douglas Carswell after all !  |
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