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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 26, 2015 12:26:45 GMT
PLR-I Liberali. And enthusiastically so.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 28, 2015 15:22:35 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 28, 2015 15:23:56 GMT
An OpinionPoll for the 2 StändeRat-seats of Zurich (Surprising for me, I thought, that GLP's PartyPresident Bäumle would be stronger.):  |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 28, 2015 20:16:40 GMT
Bump
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Post by lennon on Sept 28, 2015 20:20:45 GMT
Strangely enough - I'd probably vote Pirate Party (assuming that Pirate Party Switzerland get on the ballot - not sure how Switzerland deals with minor parties?
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 28, 2015 23:29:08 GMT
An OpinionPoll for the 2 StändeRat-seats of Zurich (Surprising for me, I thought, that GLP's PartyPresident Bäumle would be stronger.): I might be missing something but why does it add up to 155%? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 29, 2015 5:13:44 GMT
An OpinionPoll for the 2 StändeRat-seats of Zurich (Surprising for me, I thought, that GLP's PartyPresident Bäumle would be stronger.): I might be missing something but why does it add up to 155%? They can vote for two candidates. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 29, 2015 8:09:38 GMT
So what is the voting system? If they have two votes, why are the parties not nominating two candidates?
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 29, 2015 10:39:18 GMT
So what is the voting system? If they have two votes, why are the parties not nominating two candidates? It's a Majorwahl in Zürich, essentially a two round system, first round you need an absolute majority, second round it is top two elected. From a first reading each party can only run one candidate but that will be up to Cantonal law not Federal Law. Different cantons have different systems and the half cantons only elect one candidate to the Ständeräte. For instance Schwyz returned 2 SVP in an interesting way. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2015 19:50:52 GMT
As far as I know, no Canton forbids to run several candidates. Would also be difficult to be supervised. But it is risky, as SVP-Schwyz can tell You!
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 29, 2015 20:12:32 GMT
OpinionPlus made a poll for the SonntagsBlick (n=1.007): SVP 27.8, SPS 19.0, FDP 17.1, CVP 10.8, GPS 7.1, GLP 4.4, BDP 4.4, EVP 2.2, EDU 1.4, others 5.8. This seemingly isn't some kind of InternetPolling.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2015 18:32:29 GMT
An OverView, how the voters of different parties intend to vote for the 2 StändeRäte of Zurich:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2015 18:32:56 GMT
The same for Canton Bern:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2015 18:35:28 GMT
In Bern it's by the way according to SOTOMO:
42% SPS inc.
38% BDP inc.
38% SVP
19% GPS
11% FDP
9% GLP
8% EVP
2% PiratesP.
2% PiratesP.
2% indep.
2% indep.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2015 18:37:38 GMT
The age (as You see, SVP performs not too well among the younger):  |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2015 18:39:52 GMT
How the NationalRat-Factions have developed since 1996 (according to SOTOMO):  |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2015 18:42:35 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 8, 2015 0:06:44 GMT
GfS Bern published their last poll, putting the MoE at +/-2.2%: SVP 27.9 (+1.3 [2011]), SPS 19.2 (+0.5), FDP 16.7 (+1.6), CVP 11.5 (-0.8), GPS 7.2 (-1.2), GLP 5.0 (-0.4), BDP 4.6 (-0.8); the trends for FDP, GPS, BDP are clear, the others not. So the expected gains for SVP remain doubtful for them (as well as me). 29% want the government being unchanged, 21% prefer one with 4/7 seats for SVP&FDP, 12% would like one without SVP.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 17, 2015 17:59:56 GMT
The PetersenIndex for Switzerland is only a bit higher than in the UK (5%).
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 17, 2015 18:16:40 GMT
As said, I am not sure, that SVP will gain strongly. 2007 the left responded with riots, which mobilized SVP's base and put it to 29%. 2011 this strategy failed and thus SVP has made a moderate campaign this time. Their hope is, that the AsylumCrisis has been the only real debated issue. So I would put SVP at 25-30%. Contrary, FDP should be worried, that their topics (too strong currency, economy) haven't been present recently. So they must rely on their current WinnerImage.
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