Swiss Federal Election 2015

[Georg Ebner]

Television coverage is going to start at ~12.00.

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2015 18:18:32 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Television coverage is going to start at ~12.00.

I hope it will be on YouTube.

I enjoy searching for TV coverage of foreign election results programmes. If only they did declarations abroad to add a little bit of theatre. I suppose what they lack in such drama, they make up by providing more easily accessible breakdowns of results.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 17, 2015 21:17:09 GMT swanarcadian said:

Oct 17, 2015 18:18:32 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Television coverage is going to start at ~12.00.

I hope it will be on YouTube.

I enjoy searching for TV coverage of foreign election results programmes.

I am sorry, I was wrong (as usual): SRF starts at 9 GMT. The larger cantons are rarely counted before 16 o'clock MET.

[Andrew_S]

Anyone have a link to the live results page?

[iainbhx]

Oct 18, 2015 16:25:39 GMT Andrew_S said:

Anyone have a link to the live results page?

Here you go Swiss TV election results

Both the Greens and the Green Liberals appear to be getting hammered. SVP up 11 seats, FDP up 3.

[Georg Ebner]

First estimation: SVP 28.0 (+1.4), SPS 18.6 (-0.1), FDP 16.4 (+1.3), CVP 12.6 (+0.3), GPS 7.8 (-0.6), GLP 4.7 (-0.7), BDP 4.6 (-0.8), EVP 1.9 (-0.1), EDU 1.2 (-0.1), LEFT 1.2 (0.0), LT 0.9 (+0.1), MCG 0.4 (0.0).

[Georg Ebner]

Seats: SVP 65 (+11), SPS 44 (-2), FDP 33 (+3), CVP 28 (-1), GPS 10 (-5), BDP 8 (-1), GLP 6 (-6), EVP 2 (0), LT 2 (0), MCG (0), LEFT 1 (+1).

[Georg Ebner]

So SVP+FDP+LT+MCG would be at 101/200 in the NationalRat.

[Georg Ebner]

WidmerSchlumpf's only hope is, that the small chamber won't see huge changes.

[Georg Ebner]

BernCity is (very) RedGreen, so the FDP-PoliceMinister cannot do everything.

[Georg Ebner]

The second estimation of GfS-Bern has no SeatChanges, but an explanation for the SeatBoost of SVP: Blocher achieved a new record since 1919!, with 29.5 (+2.9), SPS 18.9 (+0.2), FDP 16.3 (+1.2), CVP 12.1 (-0.2), GPS 6.9 (-1.5), GLP 4.6 (-0.8), BDP 4.1 (-1.3), EVP 1.9 (-0.1), EDU 1.2 (-0.1), LEFT 1.2 (0.0), LT 1.0 (+0.2), MCG 0.3 (-0.1), CSP 0.2 (-0.1), others 1.8 (-0.3).

[Deleted]

Great to see another victory for the Right in Europe.

[Georg Ebner]

StändeRat: FDP 8 (+2), CVP 7 (-1), SPS 6, SVP 5, Ind. (SVP-leaning) 1. So SVP saved all its seats in the FirstRound, but they are OutSiders in all 19 RunOffs.

[Georg Ebner]

I found only these surveys:
SOTOMO:

And for comparison GfS-Bern, who want to have found out, how the NewVoters decided:

So there is a lot of difference between these two, although the grey streams above Show New- AND former Non-voters.

Other maps from GfS-Bern:
Reason for changing the Party: above: different problems; below: PartyPosition; left: away from...; right: to...

Important issues for those changing the party: asylum - bilateral treaties (EU) - environment - socials - economy

Preferred composition of the government:

[Georg Ebner]

Participation:

Participation: Change 2011-2015:

Participation: Change 1991-2015:


SVP:
Cantons:

Districts:

2011-2015:

1991-2015:


SPS:





FDP:



(plus LPS)

CVP:





GPS:



(1991 GREENS in general)

GLP:




BDP:




EVP+CSP:



PdA+Sol:



Small RightParties:

[Georg Ebner]

How right or left the NationalRäte of each Canton have voted 2011-2015 (according to NZZ):


How the parties might have been shifting (relying on how NationalRäte answered 35 questions at "SmartVote"):


Where the 2015-2019 NationalRäte stand:

[Georg Ebner]

FirstVoters (90% youth), taken from Sotomo:

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

SpaceTypes, development 1981-2014:
BigCities-...-RuralMunicipalities

[Georg Ebner]

LanguageRegions: