By-Elections - 21st June 2012

[greatkingrat]

CARLISLE - Harraby (Labour died)

2012 - Lab 961, Con 299, UKIP 130, Grn 61, LD 60
2011 - Lab 1125, Con 558
2010 - Lab 1496, Con 966, BNP 258, Grn 185, TUSC 71
2008 - Lab 685, Con 513, BNP 272, LD 171
2007 - Lab 776, Con 456, BNP 262, LD 232

Don FORRESTER (The Labour Party Candidate)
Michael GEE (Liberal Democrat)
Eddie HAUGHAN (UK Independence Party)
Keith MELLER (The Conservative Party Candidate)
James TUCKER (The Green Party)

DACORUM - Woodhall Farm (Conservative resigned)

2011 - Con 961/912, Lab 365/322, LD 145/111
2007 - Con 808/743, Lab 215/204, Grn 138, LD 115/103

Nitesh DAVE (Liberal Democrats)
Paul DE HOEST (Green Party)
Simon DEACON (English Democrats - Putting England First)
Paul EASTWOOD (The Labour Party Candidate)
Howard KOCH (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Rosie SUTTON (The Conservative Party Candidate)

DUDLEY - Norton (Conservative died)

2012 - Con 1570, Lab 801, UKIP 441, LD 237, Grn 215
2011 - Con 2250, Lab 1048, LD 688, Grn 336
2010 - Con 3784, LD 1736, Lab 1430, Grn 268
2008 - Con 2445, Lab 603, LD 530, BNP 285, UKIP 210
2007 - Con 2208, LD 792, Lab 600, UKIP 571

Christopher BRAMALL (Liberal Democrat)
Colin ELCOCK (Conservative Party)
Kevin INMAN (National Front)
Adnan RASHID (Labour Party Candidate)
Benjamin SWEENEY (Green Party)
Glen WILSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

DURHAM - Peterlee West (Liberal Democrat died)[/u]

2008 - LD 857/833, Lab 685/664
2005 - Lab 2276, Con 376

Jimmy ALVEY (The Labour Party Candidate)
Wendy BENTLEY (Liberal Democrats)
Karen HAWLEY (Independent)
Harvey MORGAN (The Conservative Party Candidate)

ELMBRIDGE - Esher (postponed poll - was Conservative)

2011 - Con 1179, RA 920, Lab 114
2010 - Con 1701, RA 1487, Lab 172
2009 by - Con 1032, RA 964, Lab 68
2008 - Con 1032, RA 741, Lab 57
2007 - Con 1208, RA 643

Denis HILL (UK Independence Party)
Gary LAY (Esher Residents Association)
Mick MORIARTY (Labour Party Candidate)
Tim OLIVER (Local Conservatives)

HERTFORDSHIRE - Hemel Hempstead Town (Conservative resigned)

2009 - Con 2264, LD 944, Lab 655, Grn 590
2005 - Con 2904, Lab 2494, LD 1534, Grn 499

Chris ANGELL (Liberal Democrats)
Mike BROMBERG (The Labour Party Candidate)
Paul HARRIS (Green Party)
Howard KOCH (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Rodney TUCKER (Independent)
William WYATT-LOWE (The Conservative Party Candidate)

HUNTINGDONSHIRE - Earith (Conservative died)

2011 - Con 1410, Lab 335, LD 323, UKIP 217
2010 - Con 1890, LD 980, UKIP 357, Lab 296
2007 - Con 1157, LD 361, Lab 95

Robin CARTER (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Alan FITZGERALD (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Tony HULME (Liberal Democrat)
Lord Toby JUG (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Iain RAMSBOTTOM (The Labour Party Candidate)

WEST DEVON - Tavistock North (Conservative resigned)

Mar 2012 by - Ind 407, Con 256, LD 225, Lab 125, UKIP 78, Ind 57
2011 - Con 706/592/584, Ind 583/576/369, LD 490/406/248, Lab 367
2008 by - LD 812, Con 425, Grn 133
2007 - Con 567/526/510, LD 543/404/339, Ind 435, Grn 312, UKIP 260/248/205
2003 - Con 613/493/487, LD 501/470/406, Ind 472, Grn 292

Moira BROWN (The Labour Party Candidate)
Joyce HILLSON (Liberal Democrats)
Caroline KEANE (Independent)
John SHELDON (The Conservative Party Candidate)

[Tony Otim]

What's the story with the Local Conservative in Elmbridge? and why are the Conservative Party not defending the seat?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

May 26, 2012 21:28:37 GMT Tony Otim said:

What's the story with the Local Conservative in Elmbridge? and why are the Conservative Party not defending the seat?

He is the sitting Conservative. The main fight in Elmbridge is Conservatives v. Residents Associations, so the Conservatives are ultra-keen to stress their local connections. 'Local Conservatives' is a registered description of the Conservative and Unionist Party.

[Deleted]

[Deleted]

I think the Peterlee West by-election will be interesting for what it might tell us about the likely results of the County Durham elections next May. Many of the votes for the Liberal Democrats were from traditional Labour voters and if the Liberal Democrats vote falls as it has in other parts of the North East, it could bode very badly for them.

[thirdchill]

May 31, 2012 10:11:05 GMT CatholicLeft said:

I think the Peterlee West by-election will be interesting for what it might tell us about the likely results of the County Durham elections next May. Many of the votes for the Liberal Democrats were from traditional Labour voters and if the Liberal Democrats vote falls as it has in other parts of the North East, it could bode very badly for them.

In part that may be true but in certain parts of county durham they are likely to be squeezing the conservative vote. That is probably true in the more affluent parts of the city of durham.

However labour should win peterlee west without too much trouble. If they don't I will be surprised.

The only other likely possiblity is the independent making a strong showing. However this part of county durham doesn;t normally have a strong showing for independents compared to other areas (e.g. derwentside).

[Deleted]

I lived in the City of Durham for several years and I would guess that even, in the more affluent areas, there isn't much left to squeeze. The Conservative vote in wards such as Gilesgate, Elvet, Neville's Cross, Belmont, Newton Hall and Framwellgate Moor has been fairly strongly squeezed already and much of the Lib Dem vote has come from Labour so in many of the City seats, squeezing the remaining Tories won't make much difference. Also, who is to say that former Tories will vote Lib Dem?
I would assume that the Lib Dems should hold Newton Hall and Neville's Cross with deeply reduced majorities but are very vulnerable in Elvet, Framwellgate Moor, Gilesgate, Sherburn and Deerness Valley.
More widely, it would be interesting to see what happens to the Derwentside Indepedents.

[thirdchill]

It would be nice for the derwentside independents to hold on against labour. They are good representatives for the area and do a lot of work. I know a couple of the councillors (I originally come from the derwentside area myself) and they are really nice people who do care a lot about the local community.

[hempie]

Profiles of the candidates in the 2 Hemel Hempstead elections:

www.hemeltoday.co.uk/news/local/vote-for-us-meet-the-candidates-for-june-21-1-3932812

[Andrew_S]

December 2010 electorates (except Hemel Hempstead Town)

CARLISLE - Harraby: 4,959
DACORUM - Woodhall Farm: 4,072
DUDLEY - Norton: 9,743
DURHAM - Peterlee West: 5,669
ELMBRIDGE - Esher: 4,654
HERTFORDSHIRE - Hemel Hempstead Town: 11,575 (2009 electorate)
HUNTINGDONSHIRE - Earith: 4,787
WEST DEVON - Tavistock North: 4,348

Total: 49,807

[kvasir]

I'm guessing Locally Labour will be hoping for a good result in Hemel Hempstead Town, any word on the scale of the campaign there?

[Andrew_S]

Jun 15, 2012 11:17:42 GMT kvasir said:

I'm guessing Locally Labour will be hoping for a good result in Hemel Hempstead Town, any word on the scale of the campaign there?

There's some discussion of it on the prediction thread.

[hempie]

A brief update of what I've seen and heard here in Hemel ahead of tomorrow's election.
I have had very little contact with Woodhall Farm other than what I have heard from a Conservative acquaintance - he says Labour working quite hard, Tories harder still but little from Lib Dems, Green, UKIP or ED. I suspect the Tories may well hold here but it could be close - the circumstances of the by election could be quite telling here. There is a feeling that the local councillors have promised much but delivered little.
The Town Centre County ward - Tories and Labour putting in quite a lot of effort, Greens and UKIP have been out & about, no sign of Lib Dems or the Independent. I haven't seen a single poster up in the ward (though I haven't visited all of it). I suspect that the Tories will hold on - if Labour can harness the apparent Lib Dem collapse they may come close - but a lot of this ward is pretty natural Conservative territory. Overall apathy probably wins!
I may have time to have a look around Town tomorrow (depends on workload) and give an update.
I will not be at the count as I am working late.

[Rural Radical]

The Peterlee result could be absoluteley horrific for the Lib Dems.

[Andrew_S]

Jun 20, 2012 17:00:00 GMT Rural Radical said:

The Peterlee result could be absoluteley horrific for the Lib Dems.

I think "could" probably isn't strong enough a word.

[andrewteale]

I get the feeling that the Lib Dem councillor whose death caused the by-election was the Lib Dems in Peterlee.

[dizz]

Jun 20, 2012 17:00:00 GMT Rural Radical said:

The Peterlee result could be absoluteley horrific for the Lib Dems.

Dizz silently prays.

[hempie]

Quick report from Hemel Hempstead Town ward:
a visitor would be hard pressed to know there was an election here today. I had a look around a couple of polling stations - both extremely quiet. So far I have still not seen a single window or garden poster for any of the six candidates. No party presence in the town centre over lunch time. Labour party office (which is in the ward) looked quiet.
Conservatives and Labour have delivered polling day reminder leaflets though I am not sure whether that was to identified voters or blanket coverage. Spotted a couple of UKIP leaflets on doormats (not sure if delivered today or not) as I delivered the last of our leaflets this morning.
According to the local paper the result is expected between 11.15 and 11.30 - I suspect there may not be too many votes to count.

[nord]

National Front claiming they have ''hundreds of postal votes'' and a good responce in the area.

Utter bull. My prediction for them: 37 votes.

[BossMan]

I predict the National Front will poll fewer votes than the Loonies do in their separate contests...