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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 21, 2012 23:59:00 GMT
180?
HUNTINGDONSHIRE Earith
C 524 (43.6%)
UKIP 437 (36.3%)
Lab 96 (8.0%)
L Dem 92 (7.6%)
MRLP 54 (4.5%)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 22, 2012 0:05:56 GMT
Hemel Town
Con 1413 47.8%
Lab 693 23.5%
LD 456 15.4%
Grn 180 6.1%
UKIP 151 5.1%
Ind 61 2.1%
It isn't possible to exactly model the 2011 results in the County division because a number of wards are split, but in as much as it is, that looks like there may actually have been a small swing from Labour since then and certainly a decline in their vote share. Given the circumstances of the by-election I had expected the opposite. They wouldn't have entertained any hopes in this division next year, but the result actually doesn't bode too well for them in other seats in Hemel where they should have ambitions.
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Post by nord on Jun 22, 2012 2:08:06 GMT
I predict the National Front will poll fewer votes than the Loonies do in their separate contests... NF 47 1.7% MRLP 54 4.5% ;D  |
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Post by hempie on Jun 22, 2012 7:21:28 GMT
Not greatly surprised by the 2 Hemel results. It looks to me like Labour switched much of their effort from Town to Woodhall Farm, the Lib Dem vote held up better in Town than I had anticipated, certainly didn't see much activity from them. UKIP had two poor results
Our vote was desirory in WF but I wasn't surprised by that, we haven't stood there since 2007 and barely any work done there this time (should have lowered my prediction accordingly!).
Our vote in Town probably reflects the amount of work done in the last 10 days (too little too late). Pleased to have beaten UKIP (my prediction was probably a bit bullish at 10%!)
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2012 9:38:01 GMT
I take Pete's comments about Hemel H, but the swing in the Dacorum seat was pretty reasonable wasn't it??
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 22, 2012 9:52:39 GMT
Dudley - Norton Con 1375 51.2% Lab 633 23.6% LD 259 9.6% UKIP 229 8.5% Grn 143 5.3% NF 47 1.7% Con +3.1% Lab -0.9% LD +2.3% UKIP -5.0% Green -1.3% NF +1.7% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 22, 2012 11:14:10 GMT
I take Pete's comments about Hemel H, but the swing in the Dacorum seat was pretty reasonable wasn't it?? It was but given national polls plus the circs you'd expect it to be. You have to puit it in the context of how badly Labour did in Hemel in 2011 which saw no improvement generally compared with 2007. This particular ward was won by Labour in 1999 and was still close in 2003. If Hemel Labour don't have the resources to effectively fiht two by-elections simultaneously then that is telling itself |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2012 11:19:16 GMT
When your support has fallen off a cliff, it takes a great deal of effort to get it back to levels that were previously considered "normal". Indeed, it quite often never happens (as all parties can attest in certain areas)
Labour's recovery in places like HH is going to be a long haul - given that, the result last night was modestly encouraging.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 22, 2012 12:53:03 GMT
Hemel Town Con 1413 47.8% Lab 693 23.5% LD 456 15.4% Grn 180 6.1% UKIP 151 5.1% Ind 61 2.1% It isn't possible to exactly model the 2011 results in the County division because a number of wards are split, but in as much as it is, that looks like there may actually have been a small swing from Labour since then and certainly a decline in their vote share. Given the circumstances of the by-election I had expected the opposite. They wouldn't have entertained any hopes in this division next year, but the result actually doesn't bode too well for them in other seats in Hemel where they should have ambitions. Change in the vote Con -3.0% Lab +8.8% LD -5.8% Green -7.1% UKIP +5.1% Ind +2.1% |
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Easington Conservatives
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Post by Easington Conservatives on Jun 22, 2012 18:38:46 GMT
The Peterlee West by-election saw Labour win on less than a 20% turnout? Go Ed. In reality it wasn't a Lib Dem seat, it was a Labour seat held by a popular local lady who stood for the Lib Dems.
In her absence, it reverted to Labour who only managed to put on a hundred votes on 2008 which was one of their worst ever local election results.
Peterlee West will now be poorly served by another bog standard Labour Councillor. I hope he proves me wrong.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2012 18:43:24 GMT
Um, there were *two* LibDems elected in 2008, weren't there?? And your spin about numbers doesn't fool anybody on here, we are (mostly) psephologists - try it somewhere else Do you meet in a local phone box?? ;D |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 22, 2012 18:49:04 GMT
Do you meet in a local phone box?? ;D We once had a meeting of the North Lanarkshire Green Party in the cloakroom of a community hall after they'd double booked their meeting room... ;D |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jun 22, 2012 19:41:07 GMT
Did you agree with yourself?
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
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Post by Rural Radical on Jun 22, 2012 20:43:25 GMT
Durham - Peterlee West Lab 767, Ind 181, LD 99, Con 47 Let's savour this one: Lab 70.1% (+25.7) Ind 16.5% L Dem 9.0% (-46.6) C 4.3% Absolutely crushing  |
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Post by marksenior on Jun 23, 2012 8:04:02 GMT
Um, there were *two* LibDems elected in 2008, weren't there?? And your spin about numbers doesn't fool anybody on here, we are (mostly) psephologists - try it somewhere else Do you meet in a local phone box?? ;D Peterlee is in the old Easington DC where we can see the usual results from previous elections 2003 Labour 44 councillors ( 28 unopposed ) Ind 5 LD 2 ( in 1 ward Acre Rigg ) 2005 CC Labour won all 12 seats LD fielded 0 candidates 2007 Labour 47 councillors ( 25 unopposed ) Ind 2 LD 2 ( in Acre Rigg ) Acre Rigg is part of Peterlee West so yes the LD's in Easington consisted basically of the 2 councillors elected in Acre Rigg / Peterlee West . And although the LD vote was well down the ex LD's did not vote Labour , the Labour vote was only up 100 numerically on 2008 and down on previous elections in 2003 and 2007 . |
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Post by andrewteale on Jun 23, 2012 8:30:07 GMT
The other old Easington ward in Peterlee West (Howletch) was Labour unopposed in 2003 and 2007 so it's not really fair to make comparisons with the Labour vote in those years.
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Sibboleth
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'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 23, 2012 18:49:31 GMT
Of all the results to try to spin...
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 23, 2012 20:23:01 GMT
36 per cent swing, was it??  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2012 20:55:11 GMT
And although the LD vote was well down the ex LD's did not vote Labour , the Labour vote was only up 100 numerically on 2008 and down on previous elections in 2003 and 2007 . Come off it Mark, even with differential turnout the drop in Lib Dem support has to include a considerable shift to Labour, not least because the most motivated (which includes those disillusioned with the Lib Dems) are more likely to vote. A lot of the Lib Dems in the past were former Labour voters, how can it be surprising that they have returned to their former voting allegiance? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2012 21:09:52 GMT
Of all the results to try to spin... You've got to admire him a bit for trying |
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