Preview of August 2015 by-elections, prediction competition

[middleenglander]

It looks like there are 16 by-elections during August:
* 5 on 6th August
* 6 on 13th August
* 1 on 18th August (Tuesday)
* 3 on 20th August
* 1 on 27th August

This month is very much for the Celts:
* 8 of the by-elections are in Scotland, last contested in 2012
* 2 are in Wales, last contested in 2012
* and 1 of the 6 in England is in Cornwall, a Unitary Authority last contested in 2013
* also 1 Metropolitan Authority last contested in May
another Unitary Authority last contested in 2013
a County Council last contested in 2013
a District Council with annual elections last contested in May
a District Council with annual elections but where the ward was last contested in 2014.

Conservatives are defending 3 seats, all following resignations
- 1 following election as MP, 1 under a cloud and 1 now sitting as an Independent
Labour is defending 4 seats, 2 following a death, 2 resignations one of which is after election as an MP
SNP is defending 6 seats all following resignations, five after election as a MP
UKIP, Green and Independent are each defending one seat, two following a resignation and the Independent a death.

With nominations now available:
Conservatives and Labour are both contesting 14, Green and UKIP each 13, Liberal Democrat 11, SNP 7, Independent 4, TUSC / TUSAC 2, Plaid Cymru 1
- also 1 each for Christian, Liberterian, Mebyon Kernow, North East, Pirate, Orkney Manifesto, Socialist, Yorkshire 1st and No Description
a total of 88 candidates for the 16 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of by-election.

[Deleted]

Ok, as it's one for the Celtd, I will return this week. I dread it, mind.

[maxque]

I'm really annoyed. I wrote all my predictions... in a my file I can't access today.

I'll pull out some rough numbers later, I suppose.

[Robert Waller]

Anderson / City – Glasgow

Eva Bolander (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 55%
Stevie Creighton (Scottish Libertarian Party) 2
Katie Ford (Scottish Labour Party) 30
Ary Jaff (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 5
Janice MacKay (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 2
Gary McLelland (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 2
Christy Mearns (Scottish Green Party) 4

Calton – Glasgow

Malachy Clarke (Scottish Green Party) 2
Greg Hepburn (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 55
Thomas Kerr (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 3
Karen King (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 1
Tommy Ramsay 6
Thomas Rannachan (Scottish Labour Party) 32
Chris Young (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1

Craigton – Glasgow

Phillip Charles (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 4
Isabel Nelson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1
Katie Noble (Scottish Green Party) 2
Kevin O’Donnell (Scottish Labour Party) 34
Arthur Thackeray (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 1
Alex Wilson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 58

Langside – Glasgow

Eileen Dinning (Scottish Labour Party) 25
Ian Leech (Scottish Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2
Will Millinship (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 6
Cailean Mongan (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 2
Robert Pollock (Scottish Green Party) 2
Anna Richardson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 56
Kyle Thornton (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 7

Hamilton South – South Lanarkshire

Matthew Cockburn (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 2
John Kane (Scottish Green Party) 2
Jim Lee (Scottish Labour Party) 29
Donald MacKay (UKIP) 2
Andrew McCallum (The Pirate Party) 1
Lynne Nailon (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 9
John Ross (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 52
Craig Smith (Scottish Christian Party “Proclaiming Christ’s Lordship”) 3

[Davıd Boothroyd]

GLASGOW Anderston / City Centre: SNP 55, Lab 30, C 5, SGP 3, S Lib P 3, L Dem 2, UKIP 2
GLASGOW Calton: SNP 50, Lab 33, C 6, Ind Ramsay 5, SGP 3, UKIP 2, L Dem 1
GLASGOW Craigton: SNP 52, Lab 38, C 6, UKIP 2, L Dem 1, SGP 1
GLASGOW Langside: SNP 51, Lab 32, SGP 7, C 6, L Dem 2, TUSC 1, UKIP 1
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE Hamilton South: SNP 53, Lab 32, C 5, SGP 3, L Dem 2, PP 2, UKIP 2, Ch P 1

[Ben Walker]

Anderston (Glasgow):
SNP // 58%
Labour // 25%
Green // 6%
Conservative // 5%
Ukip // 3%
Liberal Democrat // 2%
Libertarian // 1%

Calton (Glasgow):
SNP // 57%
Labour // 27%
Independent // 5%
Conservative // 4%
Liberal Democrat // 3%
Green // 2%
Ukip // 2%

Craigton (Glasgow):
SNP // 55%
Labour // 31%
Conservative // 7%
Green // 4%
Liberal Democrat // 2%
Ukip // 1%

Langisde (Glasgow):
SNP // 53%
Labour // 21%
Conservative // 9%
Green // 8%
Liberal Democrat // 7%
TUSC // 1%
Ukip // 1%

Hamilton South (South Lanarkshire):
SNP // 48%
Labour // 30%
Conservative // 11%
Ukip // 3%
Liberal Democrat // 3%
Christian // 2%
Green // 2%
Pirate // 1%

[maxque]

Anderston/City, Glasgow: SNP 50, Lab 30, Grn 11, Con 5, UKIP 2, LD 1.5, Libertarian 1
Calton, Glasgow: SNP 52, SNP 36, Grn 4, Con 3.5, No Desc 2, UKIP 1.5, LD 1
Craigton, Glasgow: SNP 55, Lab 35, Con 5, Grn 3, LD 1, UKIP 1
Langside, Glasgow: SNP 57, Lab 18, Grn 9, LD 6, Con 6, TUSC 3, UKIP 1
Hamilton South, South Lanarkshire: SNP 53, Lab 31, Con 8, Grn 2.5, Christian 2.5, LD 1.5, UKIP 1, Pirate 0.5

[Deleted]

Anderson / City – Glasgow –

Eva Bolander (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 40%
Christy Mearns (Scottish Green Party) 26%
Katie Ford (Scottish Labour Party) 25%
Ary Jaff (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 4%
Gary McLelland (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 3%
Stevie Creighton (Scottish Libertarian Party) 2%
Janice MacKay (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 0 (negligible)

Calton – Glasgow –

Greg Hepburn (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 45%
Thomas Rannachan (Scottish Labour Party) 32%
Malachy Clarke (Scottish Green Party) 18%
Tommy Ramsay 3%
Thomas Kerr (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 1%
Chris Young (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1%
Karen King (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 0% (negligble)

Craigton – Glasgow –

Alex Wilson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 51%
Kevin O’Donnell (Scottish Labour Party) 39%
Phillip Charles (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 5%
Katie Noble (Scottish Green Party) 4%
Isabel Nelson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1%
Arthur Thackeray (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 0 (negligible)

Langside – Glasgow –

Anna Richardson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 39%
Robert Pollock (Scottish Green Party) 29%
Eileen Dinning (Scottish Labour Party) 26%
Ian Leech (Scottish Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 2.5%
Kyle Thornton (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 2.5%
Will Millinship (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1%
Cailean Mongan (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 0 (negligible)

Hamilton South – South Lanarkshire –


John Ross (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 42%
Jim Lee (Scottish Labour Party) 41%
Lynne Nailon (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 10%
Matthew Cockburn (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 4%
John Kane (Scottish Green Party) 2.8%
Andrew McCallum (The Pirate Party) 0.1%
Craig Smith (Scottish Christian Party “Proclaiming Christ’s Lordship”) 0.1%
Donald MacKay (UKIP) 0

[marksenior]

Glasgow Anderson SNP 52 Lab 28 Green 8 Con 6 LD 3 UKIP 2 Libert 1
Glasgow Calton SNP 52 Lab 36 Con 5 Green 3 No Desc 2 UKIP 1 LD 1
Glasgow Craigton SNP 53 Lab 36 Con 4 Green 3 LD 2 UKIP 2
Glasgow Langside SNP 57 Lab 22 Green 9 LD 4 Con 4 TUSC 3 UKIP 1
S Lanarks Hamilton S SNP 51 Lab 34 Con 8 Green 3 LD 2 UKIP 1 Christian 1 Pirate 0

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 5, 2015 22:39:03 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Glasgow - Anderson / City

SNP   47.0%
Lab    33.2%
Grn     7.9%
Con     6.0%
LD       3.2%
UKIP   1.8%
SLP     0.9%


Glasgow - Calton

SNP   49.4%
Lab    39.5%
Con     3.1%
Grn     2.9%
UKIP   2.0%
ND      1.9%
LD       1.2%


Glasgow - Craigton

SNP  53.6%
Lab   36.7%
Con    4.6%
Grn    1.9%
UKIP  1.8%
LD      1.4%


Glasgow - Langside

SNP   50.9%
Lab    23.2%
Grn      9.7%
Con      7.1%
LD        6.1%
TUSC   2.3%
UKIP    0.7%


South Lanarkshire - Hamilton South

SNP  48.5%
Lab   32.8%
Con  10.3%
Grn    2.7%
UKIP  1.8%
LD      1.7%
SCP    1.4%
Pir      0.8%

[Tony Otim]

Aug 5, 2015 19:57:26 GMT Tony Otim said:

Anderston/City
SNP 49.6
Lab 30.1
Grn 11.2
Con 6.4
LD 1.4
UKIP 0.8
Libertarian 0.5


Calton:
SNP 54.8
Lab 33.7
Grn 3.6
Con 3.1
No Desc 2.7
UKIP 0.8
LD 0.7


Craigton:
SNP 59.3
Lab 30.2
Con 5.4
Grn 2.9
LD 1.1
UKIP 1.1


Langside:
SNP 55.4
Lab 19.7
Grn 10.9
Con 6.8
LD 4.4
TUSC 2.1
UKIP 0.7


Hamilton South:
SNP 54.1
Lab 29
Con 10
Grn 2.1
LD 1.9
SCP 1.5
UKIP 0.9
Pirate 0.5

[middleenglander]

8 entries this week with Atlas Snubbed making a debut, Just Looking back but no hempie, having been around almost continuously. CatholicLeft fails to make his promised re-appearance.
Tony Otim gets 0.6 additional faults for adding to 99.4 % in Glasgow, Calton whilst Maxque gets 0.5% for adding to 100.5% in Glasgow, Anderson / City. Maxque also had 2 SNP candidates and no Labour candidate in Glasgow, Calton but I will only penalise him 10 faults rather than give SNP 88% and Labour 0% which may be seen as harsh, pending that is the actual result.

Everyone predicts that SNP will gain a first preference lead in all 5 seats. Indeed 77½% of the predictions are they will get 50% or more of first preferences although Glasgow, Craigton is the only seat where all 8 predict SNP is elected on first preference votes alone. David Boothroyd, Mark Senior and Robert Waller all predict SNP is elected on first preference votes in the 5 seats.

I understand the Glasgow count is tonight.

[maxque]

To be clear, in Calton, I predict SNP 1st and Lab 2nd.

[middleenglander]

Glasgow, Anderston / City
Tony Otim 8.1 faults, Maxque 8.5+0.5, Mark Senior 12.8, Pete Whitehead 14.0, Robert Waller 21.0, David Boothroyd 23.0, Atlas 24.2, Just Looking 29.2

Glasgow, Calton
Tony Otim 10.1+0.6 faults, Robert Waller 13.3, Mark Senior 13.8, Atlas 14.3, David Boothroyd 15.8, Pete Whitehead 20.5, Maxque 14.0+10, Just Looking 36.0

Glasgow, Craigton
Maxque 5.5 faults, Atlas 6.4, Mark Senior 6.5, Pete Whitehead 6.8, Robert Waller 9.0, David Boothroyd 9.6, Tony Otim 10.5, Just Looking 13.9

Glasgow, Langside
Pete Whitehead 12.8 faults, Atlas 14.6, Tony Otim 15.2, Mark Senior 19.8, David Boothroyd 22.6, Maxque 23.4, Robert Waller 26.8, Just Looking 41.4

South Lanarkshire, Hamilton South
Pete Whitehead 7.9 faults, Mark Senior 8.3, Maxque 12.8, Atlas 13.8, Robert Waller 15.7, Tony Otim 16.9, David Boothroyd 17.5, Just Looking 19.3

and for the week:

61.3 Mark Senior
61.4 Tony Otim
62.0 Pete Whitehead

73.3 Atlas
74.7 Maxque

85.9 Robert Waller
88.4 David Boothroyd
139.8 Just Looking

Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday
There are 6 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday

[Robert Waller]

Very well done to the top three.
A welcome return to form for Tonyotim! On my reckoning he was well ahead until the Hamilton result came in.
A good start for Atlas too.

[marksenior]

I attribute my top spot result to ............. pure luck

[finsobruce]

Aug 7, 2015 11:40:41 GMT marksenior said:

I attribute my top spot result to ............. pure luck

  lucky generals are always useful....

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 7, 2015 12:07:27 GMT finsobruce said:

Aug 7, 2015 11:40:41 GMT marksenior said:

I attribute my top spot result to ............. pure luck

  lucky generals are always useful....

I didn't realise Mark was such a Senior officer

i'll get my greatcoat...

[finsobruce]

Aug 7, 2015 12:15:55 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Aug 7, 2015 12:07:27 GMT finsobruce said:

  lucky generals are always useful....

I didn't realise Mark was such a Senior officer

i'll get my greatcoat...

Top Lib Dem in sensational by election triumph... (bar chart to follow)

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Mark for the week. Starting with 5 Scottish contests probably helped me get back on track