Preview of August 2015 by-elections, prediction competition

[Deleted]

Crosskeys

Julian Simmonds (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 60%
Chris Cook (Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales) 25%
Joe Smyth (UKIP) 15%

Pinhoe – Exeter BC

Cynthia Thompson (The Conservative Party Candidate) 44%
David Harvey (Labour Party) 34%
Alison Sheridan (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 11%
John Moreman (Green Party) 9%
Michael Payne (Liberal Democrat) 1%
David Smith (Independent) 1%

Denny & Banknock – Falkirk

Paul Garner (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 60%
Andrew Bell (Scottish Labour Party) 30%
David Grant (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 8%
Brian Capaloff (Scottish Green Party) 2%

Wishaw – North Lanarkshire

Rosa Zambonini (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 51%
Peter McDade (Scottish Labour Party) 37%
Marjory Borthwick (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 10%
Marie Feeney (Scottish Socialist Party) 1%
Gerard Neary (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1%
Neil Wilson (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 0

Glasbury – Powys

James Evans (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 50%
David Hood (Independent) 30%
Louise Davies (The Green Party Plaid Werdd) 10%
James Gibson-Watt (Welsh Liberal Democrats) 10%

Nuneaton Whitestone – Warwickshire CC

Jeff Morgan (The Conservative Party Candidate) 40%
Andrew Crichton (The Labour Party Candidate) 30%
Mick Ludford (Green Party) 20%
Alwyn Waite (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 10%

[hempie]

I've been away on hols so I won't be taking part in August's competition. Hopefully back in September.

[Robert Waller]

Crosskeys

Julian Simmonds (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 64%
Chris Cook (Plaid Cymru – The Party of Wales) 21%
Joe Smyth (UKIP) 15%

Pinhoe – Exeter BC

Cynthia Thompson (The Conservative Party Candidate) 36%
David Harvey (Labour Party) 41%
Alison Sheridan (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 9%
John Moreman (Green Party) 7%
Michael Payne (Liberal Democrat) 3%
David Smith (Independent) 4%

Denny & Banknock – Falkirk

Paul Garner (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 67%
Andrew Bell (Scottish Labour Party) 22%
David Grant (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 5%
Brian Capaloff (Scottish Green Party) 6%

Wishaw – North Lanarkshire

Rosa Zambonini (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 51%
Peter McDade (Scottish Labour Party) 35%
Marjory Borthwick (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 10%
Marie Feeney (Scottish Socialist Party) 2%
Gerard Neary (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1%
Neil Wilson (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 1

Glasbury – Powys

James Evans (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 47%
David Hood (Independent) 20%
Louise Davies (The Green Party Plaid Werdd) 4%
James Gibson-Watt (Welsh Liberal Democrats) 29%

Nuneaton Whitestone – Warwickshire CC

Jeff Morgan (The Conservative Party Candidate) 46%
Andrew Crichton (The Labour Party Candidate) 30%
Mick Ludford (Green Party) 12%
Alwyn Waite (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 12%

[Ben Walker]

Crosskeys (Caerphilly):
Labour // 60%
Ukip // 23%
Plaid Cymru // 17%

Pinhoe (Exeter):
Labour // 40%
Conservative // 38%
Ukip // 9%
Liberal Democrat // 6%
Green // 4%
Independent // 3%

Denny & Banknock (Falkirk):
SNP // 73%
Labour // 16%
Conservative // 6%
Green // 5%

North Lanarkshire (Wishaw):
SNP // 58%
Labour // 27%
Conservative // 9%
Scottish Socialist // 3%
Ukip // 2%
Liberal Democrat // 1%

Glasbury (Powys) result:
Conservative // 47%
Liberal Democrat // 23%
Independent // 21%
Green // 9%

Nuneaton Whitestone (Warwickshire) result:
Conservative // 47%
Labour // 30%
Green // 13%
Ukip // 10%

[marksenior]

Caerphilly Lab 52 Plaid 30 UKIP 18
Exeter Lab 39 Con 37 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 5 Green 5 Ind 3
Falkirk SNP 68 Lab 20 Con 6 Green 6
N Lanarks SNP 54 Lab 33 Con 6 SSP 3 Lib Dem 2 UKIP 2
Powys Con 39 Ind 30 Lib Dem 25 Green 6
Nuneaton Con 45 Lab 33 UKIP 12 Green 10

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CAERPHILLY Crosskeys: Lab 73, PC 19, UKIP 8
EXETER Pinhoe: Lab 40, C 38, UKIP 10, GP 6, L Dem 4, Ind 2
FALKIRK Denny and Banknock: SNP 70, Lab 22, C 5, SGP 3
NORTH LANARKSHIRE Wishaw: SNP 52, Lab 38, C 5, SSP 2, UKIP 2, L Dem 1
POWYS Glasbury: Ind 39, C 28, L Dem 22, GP 11
WARWICKSHIRE Nuneaton Whitestone: C 52, Lab 30, UKIP 13, GP 5

[maxque]

Crosskeys, Caerphilly: Lab 55.1, PC 25.3, UKIP 19.6
Pinhoe, Exeter: Lab 37.7, Con 37.4, UKIP 17.5, LD 3.5, Grn 2.9, Ind 1
Denny & Banknock, Falkirk: SNP 72, Lab 20, Con 5, Grn 3
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire: SNP 54, Lab 32, Con 8, LD 2, SSP 2, UKIP 2
Glasbury, Powys: Con 40, Ind 30.7, LD 23.2, Grn 6.1
Nuneaton Whitestone, Warwickshire: Con 47.2, Lab 28.9, Grn 13.1, UKIP 10.8

[Tony Otim]

Aug 12, 2015 12:21:03 GMT Tony Otim said:

Caerphilly:
Lab 67.2
PC 22.1
UKIP 10.7


Exeter:
Lab 45.1
Con 36.2
UKIP 10.5
Grn 3.8
LD 2.9
Ind 1.5


Falkirk:
SNP 60.2
Lab 28.3
Con 6.1
Grn 5.4


North Lanarkshire:
SNP 51.4
Lab 34.7
Con 8.2
UKIP 2.8
SSP 1.6
LD 1.3


Powys:
Con 57.2
Ind 21.2
LD 15.6
Grn 6.0


Warwickshire:
Con 50.2
Lab 26.5
UKIP 16.7
Grn 6.6

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 12, 2015 20:59:19 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Warwickshire CC - Nuneaton Whitestone

Con   46.8%
Lab   31.2%
UKIP 14.7%
Grn    7.3%


Exeter BC - Pinhoe

Con   39.4%
Lab   39.3%
UKIP 10.9%
Grn    3.9%
LD      3.6%
Ind     2.9%


Falikirk - Denny & Banknock

SNP 66.1%
Lab  25.9%
Con   5.1%
Grn   2.9%


North Lanarkshire - Wishaw

SNP  53.7%
Lab  32.9%
Con   8.9%
UKIP 1.9%
SSP   1.5%
LD     1.1%



Caerphilly CC - Crosskeys

Lab     64.4%
PC      21.6%
UKIP  14.0%


Powys CC - Glasbury

Con  42.5%
Ind   32.1%
LD    15.2%
Grn  10.2%

[middleenglander]

8 entries this week, all present and correct.

Caerphilly: 100% Labour hold, majority over Plaid Cymru ranging from 22% (Mark Senior) to 54% (David Boothroyd)
Exeter: 6 Labour hold, Just Lookung and Pete Whitehead a Conservative gain
Falkirk: 100% SNP hold on 1st preferences, majority over Labour ranging from 30% (Just Looking) to 57% (Atlas Snubbed)
North Lanarkshire: 100% SNP hold on 1st preferences, majority over Labour ranging from 14% (David Boothroyd & Just Looking) to 31% (Atlas Snubbed)
Powys: 7 Conservative hold (5 Independent 2nd with Atlas Snubbed & Robert Waller Liberal Democrat 2nd) with David Boothrod Independent gain
Warwickshire: 100% Conservative hold, majority ranging from 10% (Just Looking) to 23.7% (Tony Otim)

[middleenglander]

Caerphilly, Crosskeys
Maxque 8.9 faults, Mark Senior 11.5, Atlas Snubbed & Just Looking 18.7, Robert Waller 26.7, Pete Whitehead 27.5, Tony Otim 33.1, David Boothroyd 44.7

Exeter, Pinhoe
Pete Whitehead 11.3 faults, Just Looking 21.1, Atlas Snubbed & David Boothroyd 12.7+10, Tony Otim 13.6+10, Robert Waller 15.8+10, Mark Senior 16.7+10, Maxque 19.7+10

Falkirk Denny & Banknock
Atlas Banknock 11.1 faults, Mark Senior 13.4, David Boothroyd & Maxque 16.3, Robert Waller 17.4, Pete Whitehead 22.3, Tony Otim 28.8, Just Looking 30.5

North Lanarkshire, Wishaw
Robert Waller 4.4 faults, Pete Whitehead 6.0, Tony Otim 7.2, Maxque 8.3, Just Looking 8.4, Mark Senior 8.8, David Boothroyd 12.8, Atlas Snubbed 14.3

Powys, Glasbury
Robert Waller 32.8+10 faults, Mark Senior 41.3+10, Atlas Snubbed 42.7+10, Maxque 42.9+10, Tony Otim 57.5+10, Pete Whitehead 58.3+10, Just Looking 68.7+10, David Boothroyd 69.3+10

Warwickshire, Nuneaton Whitestone
David Boothroyd 14.2 faults, Tony Otim 16.3, Pete Whitehead 23.1, Maxque & Robert Waller 27.3, Atlas Snubbed & Mark Senior 29.3, Just Looking 43.3

and for the week
Mark Senior 141.0 faults, Maxque 143.5, Robert Waller 144.5, Atlas Snubbed 149.0, Pete Whitehead 158.6, Tony Otim 176.5, David Boothroyd 189.9, Just Looking 200.8

and for the month to date:

202.4 Mark Senior
218.2 Maxque

220.6 Pete Whitehead
222.2 Atlas Snubbed

230.4 Robert Waller
237.9 Tony Otim

278.4 David Boothroyd
340.6 Just Looking

Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday

There are 4 by-elections next week, 1 on Tuesday and 3 on Thursday. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Mark again for the week.

[Pete Whitehead]

Have the byelection results themselves been posted somewhere else because on the relevant thread I can only see results for Caerphilly, Exeter and North Lanarkshire ?

[middleenglander]

Aug 14, 2015 8:29:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Have the byelection results themselves been posted somewhere else because on the relevant thread I can only see results for Caerphilly, Exeter and North Lanarkshire ?

see my thread Results of by-elections - August 2015

[Pete Whitehead]

I see. That is not the correct procedure

[middleenglander]

Aug 14, 2015 9:06:40 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I see. That is not the correct procedure

Who says?

[Pete Whitehead]

Me. Of course it is fine for you to summarise the results in this way - in fact its great that you do. But the results should initially be reported on the correct by-election thread as those for the other three by-elections were. It isn't your fault that they weren't

[Robert Waller]

He's also probably put them down in the wrong order, Pete!

Seriously, I also was waiting on the 13 August thread ... that's where results usually appear first.
Just thrown by no-one putting them up there, as you say, not ME's 'fault' in any way.
I've tried to copy them across as I guess others will be doing the same thing as us. But I've lost the formatting, mostly, as I'm a dunce at that kind of thing.

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 14, 2015 9:43:32 GMT Robert Waller said:

He's also probably put them down in the wrong order, Pete!

Well I'm used to that - everyone puts them in the wrong order apart from me

[lennon]

Aug 14, 2015 9:54:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Aug 14, 2015 9:43:32 GMT Robert Waller said:

He's also probably put them down in the wrong order, Pete!

Well I'm used to that - everyone puts them in the wrong order apart from me

I'm going to regret asking this - but what is the "right" order? Alphabetic by Country, then Authority, then Ward name? Order in which they became vacant? Likelihood of a UKIP victory? Crow flies distance from Hertfordshire?