|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Sept 3, 2015 12:21:30 GMT
Is that the Scottish Socialist Party winning Donegal?
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Sept 3, 2015 12:40:31 GMT
I don't know what your Wester Ross LD decision is based upon and I have no figures myself to dispute it, but from my own canvass in the heart of a small part of that area I would be much surprised if it was even as good as 51-49 to the LDs. Plenty of hard core Kennedy loyalty but much more enthusiasm on the doorstep for SNP.
|
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Sept 3, 2015 21:30:51 GMT
Good effort. If it helps I'm doing the same thing. Just for information the assumption that Labour support was high enough in the 'AB's' to see them top affluent wards is really based on Edinburgh South. If you look at their vote in seats with high AB's, it was lower than it was in less affluent seats (which the SNP won strongly) and indeed was jostling with the Conservatives for second place. SNP strength was uniform; that's why they won how they won despite people thinking there would be a Unionist 'get behind Labour' rally. It didn't happen. I'll explain more once I finish the damn thing.
SNP were way ahead in Milngavie based on ground reports. They were ahead in Bearsden North in 2007 so probably were again this year. Likewise, Almond in Edinburgh has been good for the SNP locally since the 80's.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427 
|
Post by iain on Sept 3, 2015 22:30:42 GMT
SNP were way ahead in Milngavie based on ground reports. They were ahead in Bearsden North in 2007 so probably were again this year. Likewise, Almond in Edinburgh has been good for the SNP locally since the 80's. I would be surprised by Milngavie - I think it has generally been the strongest LD ward. You are wrong about Bearsden North. It was carried fairly comfortably by the Tories in 2007, with the LDs also ahead of the SNP. In 2012 the SNP just beat the LDs and Tories into second, but well behind a former LD Independent. In Edinburgh West it looks as though Corstophine/Murrayfield would be the most likely ward to go LD. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 26, 2015 11:14:04 GMT
I'd definitely be interested in Essex.  Parts of Essex proved quite difficult and the results have to be treated as rather impressionistic. Areas of particular difficulty are those where partisan partcipation in local elections is erratic such as Maldon and Uttlesford and particularly in areas where local Independent or Resident groups are strong such as Southend, Castle Point and especially in Epping Forest. With those caveats, the Conservatives carried every major settlement in Essex with the exceptions of Clacton (UKIP), Tilbury (Labour) and South Ockendon (UKIP). The only other town which is close enough that it could plausibly have gone the other way was Harwich where I have the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Labour. No doubt EAL will be able to confirm or refute that hypothesis |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 26, 2015 11:15:25 GMT
|
|
Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 26, 2015 18:39:49 GMT
Just got back from a week's holiday in Pembrokeshire and would like to know if I have missed Ceredigion and/or Pembrokeshire?
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 26, 2015 19:13:44 GMT
Do people from Cardiganshire really go on holiday in Pembrokeshire? That's like me taking a holiday in Bedfordshire lol
Anyway since the last post prior to those I made today was over three weeks ago I think it's pretty clear you haven't 'missed' anything - I don't make posts on here that auto-delete or anything like that. Everything I have posted on this thread remains here.
In all seriousness, I may get round to doing rural Wales at some point but it's very low down my list of priorities and as you said yourself it would be impossible to come up with anything based on local elections which was much better than meaningless. It may well be that the local elections in 2017 will help a bit, but I doubt it. I imagine I will do every English county before I start on any part of Wales and when I do it will be Glamorganshire and Monmouthshire first.
|
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 26, 2015 19:20:19 GMT
Do people from Cardiganshire really go on holiday in Pembrokeshire? That's like me taking a holiday in Bedfordshire lol. Travelodge Luton just called and asked if you want breakfast on all days of your fortnight's stay. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 27, 2015 10:01:30 GMT
I think the Tories did carry Harwich. I'm pretty sure they also took Rowhedge (I don't have Mike Lilley's personal vote there). Unfortunately I can't find all my ward-sampling figures at the moment, but they were pretty rickety anyway. There's a possibility one or both of the central Harwich wards may have gone the other way and a very slim chance Quay went Labour, though I personally doubt the samples indicating the latter.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,780
|
Post by john07 on Sept 28, 2015 12:49:30 GMT
Good effort. If it helps I'm doing the same thing. Just for information the assumption that Labour support was high enough in the 'AB's' to see them top affluent wards is really based on Edinburgh South. If you look at their vote in seats with high AB's, it was lower than it was in less affluent seats (which the SNP won strongly) and indeed was jostling with the Conservatives for second place. SNP strength was uniform; that's why they won how they won despite people thinking there would be a Unionist 'get behind Labour' rally. It didn't happen. I'll explain more once I finish the damn thing. SNP were way ahead in Milngavie based on ground reports. They were ahead in Bearsden North in 2007 so probably were again this year. Likewise, Almond in Edinburgh has been good for the SNP locally since the 80's. Was that Ward not in West Lothian Constituency until fairly recently? West Lothian was a strong area for the SNP from the early 1960s and was the scene of the struggle between Billy Wolfe and Tam Dayell at a succession of General Elections. Prior to the introduction of STV I think that most, if not all, elected Edinburgh SNP councillors came from the South Queensferry and Kirklisten Wards which were transferred from West Lothian to the City. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,301
|
Post by maxque on Sept 30, 2015 22:07:31 GMT
Good effort. If it helps I'm doing the same thing. Just for information the assumption that Labour support was high enough in the 'AB's' to see them top affluent wards is really based on Edinburgh South. If you look at their vote in seats with high AB's, it was lower than it was in less affluent seats (which the SNP won strongly) and indeed was jostling with the Conservatives for second place. SNP strength was uniform; that's why they won how they won despite people thinking there would be a Unionist 'get behind Labour' rally. It didn't happen. I'll explain more once I finish the damn thing. SNP were way ahead in Milngavie based on ground reports. They were ahead in Bearsden North in 2007 so probably were again this year. Likewise, Almond in Edinburgh has been good for the SNP locally since the 80's. Was that Ward not in West Lothian Constituency until fairly recently? West Lothian was a strong area for the SNP from the early 1960s and was the scene of the struggle between Billy Wolfe and Tam Dayell at a succession of General Elections. Prior to the introduction of STV I think that most, if not all, elected Edinburgh SNP councillors came from the South Queensferry and Kirklisten Wards which were transferred from West Lothian to the City. Only part of it. Queensferry, Dalmeny and Kirkliston. Newbridge was in Midlothian and Cramond was in Edinburgh West. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,780
|
Post by john07 on Sept 30, 2015 22:29:53 GMT
Was that Ward not in West Lothian Constituency until fairly recently? West Lothian was a strong area for the SNP from the early 1960s and was the scene of the struggle between Billy Wolfe and Tam Dayell at a succession of General Elections. Prior to the introduction of STV I think that most, if not all, elected Edinburgh SNP councillors came from the South Queensferry and Kirklisten Wards which were transferred from West Lothian to the City. Only part of it. Queensferry, Dalmeny and Kirkliston. Newbridge was in Midlothian and Cramond was in Edinburgh West. Thanks. I thought the core of that ward came from the former West Lothian area. At one stage Norman Irons was the only SNP councillor on Edinburgh City and was elected from this area. He became Lord Provost as Labour had half the councillors and did a deal to ensure control of the City. He was a very respected figure in Edinburgh. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427
|
Post by iain on Oct 1, 2015 12:56:17 GMT
So I am now much happier with my map though not entirely confident with Highland, Aberdeen City and Dumfries & Galloway. Does anyone have some suggestions? I have every ward in Highland going yellow: is this plausible? (I made some changes to D&G, Highland and City of Edinburgh) I would have expected the Tweeddale wards to be more likely to go Tory than Annandale South? RDL has confirmed (from the count) that all wards in INB&S went SNP, but don't know about the rest of the Highlands. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2015 12:03:46 GMT
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427
|
Post by iain on Oct 10, 2015 14:59:01 GMT
What you doing next?
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427
|
Post by iain on Oct 10, 2015 16:37:22 GMT
I'd also be interested in Somerset and 'Avon'
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2015 17:28:31 GMT
I had been debating where to do next. EAL had asked me to do Cambridgeshire but he was being greedy as it was the same time he asked for Essex. Also I'm wary of doing too many counties in the East and South East early on and leaving potentially less interesting areas to the end. I've done quite a lot of the North country already by virtue of doing the Met boroughs, but I've done none of the Midlands counties outside the West Midlands county itself. I had decided, more or less at random, to do Leicestershire next, but as I've now been asked, Warwickshire it is. I'm looking forward to doing Avon very much btw |
|
|
|
Post by akmd on Oct 10, 2015 19:58:57 GMT
Thanks for doing East Sussex, Pete. Looking at that map, it seems Labour carried Brighton & Hove and Hastings. Am I right? Can I also request a map for Surrey at some point? I know it will be very blue but I'd like to know which wards were carried by parties other than the Conservatives.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 11, 2015 21:48:31 GMT
Thanks for doing East Sussex, Pete. Looking at that map, it seems Labour carried Brighton & Hove and Hastings. Am I right? Can I also request a map for Surrey at some point? I know it will be very blue but I'd like to know which wards were carried by parties other than the Conservatives. Brighton & Hove certainly (Brighton and Hove for that matter too), but that much was obvious already. I have the Tories narrowly carrying Hastings though despite winning a minority of wards, as they did also in Eastbourne of course |
|
