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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 27, 2015 10:17:10 GMT
I'd definitely be interested in Essex. Cambridgeshire too if you're minded to continue with this.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jul 27, 2015 11:27:29 GMT
Scilly please.  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 27, 2015 11:46:52 GMT
Don't be, erm, silly  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 27, 2015 13:31:22 GMT
The Scilly Isles will have to be done when I do Cornwall which is going to be nitghtmarish enough as it is. There are guides to partisan voting habits of the Scily Isles from European elections. I shan't bother with the individual wards thereof of course.
I hope to do the whole of England in due course - Wales will be tricky but I'll give it a go. Scotland is probably not doable now with the STV wards
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 27, 2015 14:27:15 GMT
In all honesty Wales will be almost impossible thanks to all the Independents in local elections (not helped by here in Ceredigion a Plaid Cymru councillor winning a by-election in 2008, was then being deselected by Plaid for the local elections in 2012 and stood as an Independent against another Independent who in 2008 was a Liberal Democrat against the Liberal Democrats). The ward in question was Aberystwyth, Rheidol and went like this in 2008, 2008 by-election and 2012
Local Elections 2008: Lib Dem 490 (68%), Plaid 197 (27%), Con 38 (5%)
By-election 2008: Plaid 271 (40%), Lib Dem 252 (37%), Independent (former Lib Dem in 2004) 98 (15%), Labour 36 (5%), Conservatives 17 (3%)
Local Elections 2012: Independent (Plaid winner in by-election) 207 (33%), Plaid Cymru 143 (23%), Lib Dem 137 (22%), Independent (former Lib Dem in 2008) 120 (19%), Conservative 22 (4%)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 27, 2015 19:36:10 GMT
Its a serious problem but I wouldn't say impossible. In any case what you say applies to parts of rural Wales but not to Cardiff, Swansea, Newport and much else in South Wales. Some English districts are going to present the same kind of problems (eg Eden). There are ways to deal with this using census data which can be a pretty good way of predicting voting behaviour, not least in relation to the Plaid Cymru vote which is heavily tied to Welsh language speaking.
But of coure any data produced from these areas is going to have to be taken with a lot more salt than those in Met boroughs which had local elections on the same day which were contested by all parties
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 8, 2015 21:06:11 GMT
I'm working on Gloucestershire - I've done most of the base data which is what takes the most time. I had not expected Humberside to grab my interest but for reasons which will be apparent to those who follow my posts on another thread I have done the notional results for this non-county. No comparisons with previous elections possible as I had not done Humberside previously. The pattern is, to say the least, predictable  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 8, 2015 21:07:44 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 8, 2015 23:19:24 GMT
There's some kind of wiki page which has a bunch of ward maps for each county but I can't find it at the moment as I'm on a new computer - have it bookmarked on my old one and one at work
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Aug 8, 2015 23:38:28 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 8, 2015 23:46:53 GMT
Well thats much better than the one I had bookmarked - more up to date and far more comprehensive. Maps of whole regions too |
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 9, 2015 12:14:43 GMT
Damn! I'd really like 2003 ward boundaries for South Ayrshire (and additionally North and East Ayrshire and East Renfrewshire). If anyone finds any 2003 boundary outlines for East Renfrewshire/Ayrshire please let me know ! Wow... commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Scottish_wards_2012.svgAnyone care to fill this in for 2015 ? Give me a little while. Done.   |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 20, 2015 20:52:49 GMT
Ask and you shall receive... Would you mind doing Gloucestershire please?      |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427
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Post by iain on Aug 20, 2015 20:56:56 GMT
I'm sceptical of your Cheltenham results. I'd have expected to see the LDs carry:
Hesters Way, St Mark's, St Paul's
But be further behind in areas like Hatherley.
Could you email me the results just for Cheltenham please?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 20, 2015 21:13:29 GMT
I'm sceptical of your Cheltenham results. I'd have expected to see the LDs carry: Hesters Way, St Mark's, St Paul's But be further behind in areas like Hatherley. You would have expected that and I did too - I was quite surprised by how evenly spread the Lib Dem vote was. Cheltenham is one of these annoying places that didn't have local elections in May 2015 so I had to use the 2014 results as a base, which isn't ideal. In those elections though the results in Hesters Way and Up Hatherley were actually very similar. I don't have a very good handle on these 'new' 2 member Cheltenham wards but had a better understanding of the old wards and it looks to me like a large part of the old Hesters Way is now in Springbank. One issue here is that you had a sizeable UKIP local vote in some of these working class wards in 2014 and according to a uniform flow of votes (where LDs, UKIP and Labour are all down and the Tories up), this benefits the Tories. Certainly when I looked at this area in the past, even in the quite close 1992 election, the Lib Dems were utterly solid in the West and North of the town (St Marks, St Peters, ST Pauls and Hesters Way) with the Tories almost equally solid in the East and South but this does seem to levelled out somewhat subsequently (which I suppose is in line with the kind of class realignment we have seen everywhere). I do share some of your scepticism though |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427
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Post by iain on Aug 20, 2015 21:18:28 GMT
I'm sceptical of your Cheltenham results. I'd have expected to see the LDs carry: Hesters Way, St Mark's, St Paul's But be further behind in areas like Hatherley. You would have expected that and I did too - I was quite surprised by how evenly spread the Lib Dem vote was. Cheltenham is one of these annoying places that didn't have local elections in May 2015 so I had to use the 2014 results as a base, which isn't ideal. In those elections though the results in Hesters Way and Up Hatherley were actually very similar. I don't have a very good handle on these 'new' 2 member Cheltenham wards but had a better understanding of the old wards and it looks to me like a large part of the old Hesters Way is now in Springbank. One issue here is that you had a sizeable UKIP local vote in some of these working class wards in 2014 and according to a uniform flow of votes (where LDs, UKIP and Labour are all down and the Tories up), this benefits the Tories. Certainly when I looked at this area in the past, even in the quite close 1992 election, the Lib Dems were utterly solid in the West and North of the town (St Marks, St Peters, ST Pauls and Hesters Way) with the Tories almost equally solid in the East and South but this does seem to levelled out somewhat subsequently (which I suppose is in line with the kind of class realignment we have seen everywhere). I do share some of your scepticism though You could also compare to the 2010 local results to give an idea of the GE turnout. The 2014 results were very odd, with stonking LD performances in places like Benhall and Park, but lacklustre results in safer seats, partly due to where was worked. Obviously there's no perfect way to do it though! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 20, 2015 21:27:10 GMT
Yes I did base the turnout figures on those from 2010 but it may have made sense to use some other election results as well which is what I have generally done when I'm not working with results from the same day. The 2012 results also seem to show a slightly different picture, with the LDs being much stronger in Hesters Way etc
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Post by matt84 on Aug 21, 2015 10:38:13 GMT
This is amazing work Pete. I would love to see North Wales, but that would be a massive piece of work I guess!
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Post by matt1977 on Aug 21, 2015 16:19:24 GMT
I agree with Matt84 - amazing work Pete.I have a question - how did you work out ward electorates/turnout in London, I ask as Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus based his estimates on the number of postcodes in each ward (which has produced some very strange numbers!) - thanks |
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Post by afleitch on Aug 21, 2015 18:47:19 GMT
Baxters calculations aren't bad. I've done ones for Scotland. I'm currently doing them if I can back to 1983...
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