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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 20, 2015 12:19:49 GMT
Both are a bit moot. Using the standard formula, Bartley Green would be Tory in both 2010 and 2015 but I've been given to understand that Gisella Stewart far outpeforms her local running mates in that ward and that almost all the differential between local and general election voting patterns are accounted for there. Acocks Green is actually an error. I have it coloured yellow on the map but my spreadhseet shows Labour carrying it.
WRG to Hall Green again the formula for 2010 showed the Lib Dems carrying that ward with Labour carrying Moseley but I was assured b y somebody who was at the count that the actualite was the other way around
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 26, 2015 21:19:38 GMT
 Con Gain from Lib Dem (14) Oldham: Crompton, Saddleworth North Rochdale: Littleborough Lakeside Stockport: Bredbury & Woodley, Bredbury Green, Cheadle & Gatley, Cheadle Hulme South, Hazel Grove, Heald Green, Marple North, Marple South, Offerton, Stepping Hill Trafford: Village Con Gain from Lab (3) Bolton: Horwich North East, Smithills Wigan: Lowton East Lab Gain from Lib Dem (10) Manchester: Chorlton Park, City Centre, Didsbury East, Didsbury West, Withington Oldham: Saddleworth West & Lees, Shaw Rochdale: Balderstone & Kirkholt, Healey, Milnrow & Newhey Lab Gain from Con (7) Bolton: Hulton Stockport: Heatons North Trafford: Davyhulme East, Flixton Wigan: Orrell, Shevington with Lower Ground, Wigan Central |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 26, 2015 21:25:56 GMT
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Post by linders on Jun 27, 2015 17:59:04 GMT
Not convinced we outpolled Labour in any of those three Wigan wards in 2010 on the GE ballot. Or Heatons North.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2015 14:05:46 GMT
 Changes from 2010 Lab Gain from Con (21) Redbridge: Aldborough, Barkingside, Clayhall, Hainault, Wanstead. Waltham Forest: Hale End & Highams Park Tower Hamlets: Blackwall & Cubitt Town, Millwall Hammersmith & Fulham: North End Barnet: Coppetts Brent: Northwick Park Ealing: Cleveland Hillingdon: West Drayton Hounslow: Bedfont, Feltham North, Feltham West, Hanworth, Hounslow South. Wandsworth: Roehampton & Putney Heath Croydon: Waddon Bromley: Clock House Lab Gain from LD (23) Haringey: Alexandra, Crouch End, Fortis Green, Hornsey, Muswell Hill, Stroud Green. Camden: West End Brent: Dollis Hill, Dudden Hill, Kensal Green, Mapesbury, Willesden Green Lambeth: St Leonards, Streatham Hill, Streatham Wells Southwark: Cathedrals, Chaucer, East Dulwich, East Walworth, Grange, Newington, Riverside, South Bermondsey Con Gain from LD (22) Camden: Fortune Green Brent: Brondesbury Park Ealing: Southfield Richmond: Ham & Petersham, Hampton, Hampton North, Heathfield, Kew, North Richmond, South Twickenham, Twickenham Riverside, Whitton Kingston: Alexandra, Berrylands, Beverley, Canbury, Chessington North, Chessington South, St Marks, Surbiton Hill Sutton: Stonecot Southwark: Village Con Gain from Lab (2) Harrow: Kenton West Wandsworth: Queenstown UKIP Gain from Con (3) Havering: Goosehays, Rainham & Werrington, South Hornchurch 11 Boroughs saw no wards changing hands. Barking, Newham, Hackney, Islington and Lewisham all remained 100% Labour while Enfield, Merton, Greenwich, Bexley, Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster had the same mix of Conservative and Labour wards as before Labour will have won the GE vote in Roehampton fairly comfortably in 2010. After all the ward was split and there has been a history of split ticket voting (Con lical, Lab nationally in Wandsworth, and particularly in Roehampton) Im not convinced that we won Queenstown in 2015, although it was pretty close. Bedford must have been close too. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2015 14:17:23 GMT
Which is the sole LibDem ward in GManc?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 28, 2015 14:19:29 GMT
Which is the sole LibDem ward in GManc? Looks like Cheadle Hulme North. |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Jun 28, 2015 19:17:33 GMT
Looking forward to seeing Kent...  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 28, 2015 20:22:02 GMT
Which is the sole LibDem ward in GManc? Looks like Cheadle Hulme North. It is. (The ward I worked on May 7th. If only I could be cloned!  ) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 28, 2015 20:53:01 GMT
Labour will have won the GE vote in Roehampton fairly comfortably in 2010. After all the ward was split and there has been a history of split ticket voting (Con lical, Lab nationally in Wandsworth, and particularly in Roehampton) Im not convinced that we won Queenstown in 2015, although it was pretty close. Bedford must have been close too. There was no significant split ticket voting in Putney in 2010. The aggregate local elction vote based on average votes (which my figures were based on) was: Con 21476 50.3% Lab 10023 23.5% LD 7025 16.5% Grn 3804 8.9% BNP 218 0.5% oth 135 0.3% Con lead 26.8% (on top polling candidate it would be 25.9%) In the general election the result was Con 21223 52.0% Lab 11170 27.4% LD 6907 16.9% Grn 591 1.4% BNP 459 1.1% UKIP 435 1.1% Con lead 24.6% which represents a swing of 1.1% from Conservative to Labour between the two sets of elections while the Conservative lead in Roehampton in the locals was 2.5% on average vote and 2.7% on top vote. What the figures above show is a remarkable absence of Tory voters splitting their vote – their numerical general election vote is 99% of their local vote while the Lib Dem vote is 98% of theirs. It’s fairly clear that the extra 1000 or so Labour votes in the parliamentary election came from local Green voters and there were notably fewer of these in Roehampton than in any of the other wards. The figures I produced are in fact so close that it wouldn’t be at all possible for me to say that Labour didn’t carry the ward then, but there’s absolutely no basis in the available data to suggest that they would have done so ‘comfortably’ if at all. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2015 21:17:56 GMT
Labour will have won the GE vote in Roehampton fairly comfortably in 2010. After all the ward was split and there has been a history of split ticket voting (Con lical, Lab nationally in Wandsworth, and particularly in Roehampton) Im not convinced that we won Queenstown in 2015, although it was pretty close. Bedford must have been close too. There was no significant split ticket voting in Putney in 2010. The aggregate local elction vote based on average votes (which my figures were based on) was: Con 21476 50.3% Lab 10023 23.5% LD 7025 16.5% Grn 3804 8.9% BNP 218 0.5% oth 135 0.3% Con lead 26.8% (on top polling candidate it would be 25.9%) In the general election the result was Con 21223 52.0% Lab 11170 27.4% LD 6907 16.9% Grn 591 1.4% BNP 459 1.1% UKIP 435 1.1% Con lead 24.6% which represents a swing of 1.1% from Conservative to Labour between the two sets of elections while the Conservative lead in Roehampton in the locals was 2.5% on average vote and 2.7% on top vote. What the figures above show is a remarkable absence of Tory voters splitting their vote – their numerical general election vote is 99% of their local vote while the Lib Dem vote is 98% of theirs. It’s fairly clear that the extra 1000 or so Labour votes in the parliamentary election came from local Green voters and there were notably fewer of these in Roehampton than in any of the other wards. The figures I produced are in fact so close that it wouldn’t be at all possible for me to say that Labour didn’t carry the ward then, but there’s absolutely no basis in the available data to suggest that they would have done so ‘comfortably’ if at all. Apologies - had thought the split ticketing which was certainly a feature earlier in the decade (given that at one point 18/18 cllrs were tory in a labour seat) had lasted slightly longer than it had - thanks for the analysis! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 28, 2015 22:00:36 GMT
Incidentally I have the Tories 112 votes ahead in Queenstown in 2015 (1.7%) so I'm moderately confident about calling that. Bedford has an 11 vote Labour lead so that is totally 'too close to call'. In fact I only had an 11 vote Labour lead in Queenstown in 2010 so that is also too close to call - quite plausibly it voted Tory then (as indeed it did quite comfortably in the locals that day - more so than Roehampton). There's always going to be a number of wards that are so close that in reality one can never be sure but of course one must take the result that the formula produces (as long as it's plausible, and i've followed London elections in detail for long enough that I know if a result i've come up with 'feels' right or not (my instincts possibly not quite so reliable WRT Wigan))
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2015 11:18:16 GMT
 Lab Gain from Con Sefton: Ravenmeols Wirral: Pensby and Thingwall Con Gain from LD Sefton: Ainsdale, Cambridge |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2015 11:19:41 GMT
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jul 2, 2015 11:04:02 GMT
Interesting the high UKIP vote in those Lib Dem wards.
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Post by thirdchill on Jul 2, 2015 11:07:47 GMT
Interesting the high UKIP vote in those Lib Dem wards. Well it is southport which electorally plays by it's own rules. Localism plays very well (hence the lib dem vote, they have a formidable campaign machine in southport) and it is quite a socially conservative area that isn't uniformly wealthy (certainly a lot less so than Formby) so UKIP will do pretty well too. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 6, 2015 6:14:26 GMT
When Mr. Teale meant, that UKIP might with some luck win Southport I first thought he made a joke, but obviously it was seriously minded!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2015 15:34:49 GMT
 Lab Gain from Con Bradford: Thornton and Allerton Calderdale: Calder, Todmorden * Kirklees: Cleckheaton Wakefield: Pontefract South, Wakefield West Lab Gain from Lib Dem Bradford: Bolton and Undercliffe, Eccleshill Kirklees: Almondbury, Golcar Leeds: Headingley Con Gain from Lab Calderdale: Warley Leeds: Morley South Wakefield: Horbury & South Ossett Con Gain from Lib Dem Kirklees: Colne Valley * I'm dubious about the Tories carrying these wards in 2010 but its what my figures from then show and i'm not going to change those retrospectively. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2015 15:36:26 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 6, 2015 15:53:50 GMT
When you have done all these calculations, could I make a request of a spreadsheet with all the data?
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