The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 8, 2018 9:41:14 GMT
So many people going mad that the Tories have gained a seat from Labour In a division where they came top last year. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Sept 8, 2018 9:51:58 GMT
So many people going mad that the Tories have gained a seat from Labour In a division where they came top last year. so many do not understand the system, the local press could do a better job explaining |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 8, 2018 10:10:47 GMT
In a division where they came top last year. so many do not understand the system, the local press could do a better job explaining Nonetheless, a Labour councillor has been replaced by a Tory councillor, and there's no other description for it than a Tory gain from Labour. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 8, 2018 10:13:55 GMT
so many do not understand the system, the local press could do a better job explaining Nonetheless, a Labour councillor has been replaced by a Tory councillor, and there's no other description for it than a Tory gain from Labour. Yes, we have had this discussion here before re Scottish by-elections (including when there has actually been a swing *against* the winning party!) I agree with you, but also suspect the previous poster was referring more to those depicting this as some sort of epochal event when it is really "small earthquake, not many hurt" territory  |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Sept 8, 2018 11:11:47 GMT
Nonetheless, a Labour councillor has been replaced by a Tory councillor, and there's no other description for it than a Tory gain from Labour. Yes, we have had this discussion here before re Scottish by-elections (including when there has actually been a swing *against* the winning party!) I agree with you, but also suspect the previous poster was referring more to those depicting this as some sort of epochal event when it is really "small earthquake, not many hurt" territory Tories went from 54% to 37%. Clearly Tories hold on to seat by narrow margin, most of this was the Windaelickersgate effect publications.fifedirect.org.uk/c64_Transfers_Report_Ward_6_-_Inverkeithing__Dalgety_Bay_07092018_000427.pdf |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 8, 2018 11:32:16 GMT
Yes, we have had this discussion here before re Scottish by-elections (including when there has actually been a swing *against* the winning party!) I agree with you, but also suspect the previous poster was referring more to those depicting this as some sort of epochal event when it is really "small earthquake, not many hurt" territory Tories went from 54% to 37%. Clearly Tories hold on to seat by narrow margin, most of this was the Windaelickersgate effect publications.fifedirect.org.uk/c64_Transfers_Report_Ward_6_-_Inverkeithing__Dalgety_Bay_07092018_000427.pdfTories went from 37% to 37% if you're rounding the nearest whole number. The comments of their candidate having practically zero effect. As some of us predicted would be the case. The result was utterly unspectacular. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 8, 2018 11:35:17 GMT
How on earth did we gain 1% of the vote with a Government like this one?  Differential Turnout - turnout was much better in the more Tory inclined parts of the ward. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Sept 8, 2018 13:54:49 GMT
feck it, tory seat goes to tories
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 8, 2018 15:19:41 GMT
Comfortable first innings lead, which he then extended at every stage except the exclusion of the Green. Yes, more Labour to Conservative transfers that Labour to SNP. As a party and as an individual, rather lacking in toxicity. Stuck on the council with you. The overall effect of the transfers was that the gap between the Tories and the SNP narrowed by 56 votes. I think it would be fairer to say that neither of them were exactly transfer friendly. AND THERE WERE MORELAB TO SNP TRANSFERS THAN LAB TO CON ONES. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2018 12:18:57 GMT
Hopefully we'll get the full preferences spreadsheet eventually, but percentage transfers in each round:
Exclusion of Lib: Con 23.1, Ind C 23.1, Lab 15.4, LD 15.4, n/t 15.4, Ind M 7.7
Exclusion of Ind M: Ind C 51.2, n/t 14.6, LD 12.2, Con 9.8, SNP 7.3, Lab 2.4, Grn 2.4
Exclusion of Grn: SNP 37.2, LD 22.5, Lab 18.2, n/t 8.9, Ind C 7.8, Con 5.4
Exclusion of Ind C: n/t 26.5, Con 22.1, SNP 19.5, LD 18.9, Lab 12.9
Exclusion of LD: n/t 35.4, Lab 25.9, Con 21.7, SNP 17.1
Exclusion of Lab: n/t 55.1, SNP 23.7, Con 21.2
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2018 12:39:33 GMT
Also interesting is the percentage of 2nd, 3rd etc. preferences for each candidate: 1st preferences: Con 37.3, SNP 28.1, Lab 12.0, LD 9.1, Ind C 8.4, Grn 4.2, Ind M 0.6, Lib 0.2 2nd preferences: n/t 31.0, LD 15.5, Ind C 14.1, Grn 12.4, Lab 10.1, SNP 6.5, Con 6.2, Ind M 3.7, Lib 0.6 3rd preferences: n/t 53.3, LD 9.7, Ind C 8.7, Lab 7.5, Grn 6.9, Ind M 6.7, SNP 3.3, Con 2.3, Lib 1.0 publications.fifedirect.org.uk/c64_PreferenceSummary_Report_All_Contests_07092018_000425.pdfConservatives the least popular second and third preference of all the significant parties, very closely followed by the SNP. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 14, 2018 12:43:25 GMT
Also interesting is the percentage of 2nd, 3rd etc. preferences for each candidate: 1st preferences: Con 37.3, SNP 28.1, Lab 12.0, LD 9.1, Ind C 8.4, Grn 4.2, Ind M 0.6, Lib 0.2 2nd preferences: n/t 31.0, LD 15.5, Ind C 14.1, Grn 12.4, Lab 10.1, SNP 6.5, Con 6.2, Ind M 3.7, Lib 0.6 3rd preferences: n/t 53.3, LD 9.7, Ind C 8.7, Lab 7.5, Grn 6.9, Ind M 6.7, SNP 3.3, Con 2.3, Lib 1.0 publications.fifedirect.org.uk/c64_PreferenceSummary_Report_All_Contests_07092018_000425.pdfConservatives the least popular second and third preference of all the significant parties, very closely followed by the SNP. Yes but it must be remembered that the cons and SNP had significantly more 1st preferences and so had sognificantly fewer potential 2nd and 3rd prefs compared to say the lib dems. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2019 21:27:06 GMT
If i may revive a thread EDINBURGH UA; Leith Walk (Lab resigned): Candidates: ALEXANDER, Steven (UKIP) CALDWELL, Jack (Liberal Democrat) GARDNER, Nick (Labour) ILLINGWORTH, Kevin (Independent) JACOBSEN, David Don (Socialist Labour Party) LAIRD, Tim (Libertarian) MCCROSKIE, Dan (Conservative) MUNN, Rob (SNP) SCOTT, John Ferguson (Independent) SLATER, Lorna (Green) STIRLING, Paul Mitchell (For Britain) "Tim" Laird, I am fairly sure will in fact be Tam (Thomas) Laird, Leader of the Scottish Libertarian Party. Pleasant company over a pint, rabid Yesser however. When a party leader cant even get known by the correct Christian name, the party is in trouble. Aberdeen Labour are cluttering up the internet for Nick Gardner. Dan McCroskrie is a nice guy. I last met him when he was handing out "Strong and Stable " banners at Theresa May's famous "gathering in a forest" meeting four miles from my home. His candidature is evidence of one of the many malaises in the Scottish Conservative Party as was his candidature in the Western Isles. He hails from Ayrshire. He is employed by Central office, who now micro manage the entire Scottish Party. This month they are re-selecting MSPs for elections due in over two years time. Their MPs include at least two who were employed directly by the party prior to being elected with no other electoral/political/business/career track record in their <30 years. A Libertarian being such a staunch nationalist strikes me as slightly odd for some reason. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Apr 14, 2019 22:07:05 GMT
If i may revive a thread "Tim" Laird, I am fairly sure will in fact be Tam (Thomas) Laird, Leader of the Scottish Libertarian Party. Pleasant company over a pint, rabid Yesser however. When a party leader cant even get known by the correct Christian name, the party is in trouble. Aberdeen Labour are cluttering up the internet for Nick Gardner. Dan McCroskrie is a nice guy. I last met him when he was handing out "Strong and Stable " banners at Theresa May's famous "gathering in a forest" meeting four miles from my home. His candidature is evidence of one of the many malaises in the Scottish Conservative Party as was his candidature in the Western Isles. He hails from Ayrshire. He is employed by Central office, who now micro manage the entire Scottish Party. This month they are re-selecting MSPs for elections due in over two years time. Their MPs include at least two who were employed directly by the party prior to being elected with no other electoral/political/business/career track record in their <30 years. A Libertarian being such a staunch nationalist strikes me as slightly odd for some reason. Will feel at home with the Stalinists and my Trot friends |
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peters
Forum Regular
Posts: 11 
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Post by peters on Jul 12, 2019 12:15:38 GMT
If i may revive a thread "Tim" Laird, I am fairly sure will in fact be Tam (Thomas) Laird, Leader of the Scottish Libertarian Party. Pleasant company over a pint, rabid Yesser however. When a party leader cant even get known by the correct Christian name, the party is in trouble. Aberdeen Labour are cluttering up the internet for Nick Gardner. Dan McCroskrie is a nice guy. I last met him when he was handing out "Strong and Stable " banners at Theresa May's famous "gathering in a forest" meeting four miles from my home. His candidature is evidence of one of the many malaises in the Scottish Conservative Party as was his candidature in the Western Isles. He hails from Ayrshire. He is employed by Central office, who now micro manage the entire Scottish Party. This month they are re-selecting MSPs for elections due in over two years time. Their MPs include at least two who were employed directly by the party prior to being elected with no other electoral/political/business/career track record in their <30 years. A Libertarian being such a staunch nationalist strikes me as slightly odd for some reason.
Being a nationalist would be odd indeed for a libertarian, wanting to get rid of another level of government makes perfect sense for one.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 17, 2019 19:14:13 GMT
I would love this thread to remain bumped if the you would all humour me. BTW, Torry in Aberdeen by election due, I know three of the candidates well enough to offer a view. I don't know the one who will win though. Well, it will probably be a week or two before I get the thread up for that week's elections, but I'll tag you when I do so you can share your thoughts... Or you could just share them here and now, up to you really... |
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