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Post by boogieeck on May 10, 2015 12:38:50 GMT
My thanks to Harry Hayfield who put this idea into my head.
Two Aberdeen City Councillors were elected as MPs for the SNP. There may have been others elsewhere. Being the SNP, it will not be a random decision by the MP to stand down from the council , it will come when and as the party thinks benefits it most. I think the notional majority the SNP are defending in each seat is irrelevant, we have had a referendum and GE since then, much has changed and the SNP have by far the best voter identification on exactly what has changed. We may see a drip feed of by elections, but I suspect it is more likely that we will see them all go together to stretch other parties thin resources, create a bigger media event and give their activist base something to be involved in, but I would expect it to be reasonably soon while they are dominant
In both Kirsty Blackman's Hilton ward and Calum McCaig's Kincorth ward, I would expect them to hold.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 10, 2015 19:49:44 GMT
The new MP for Edinburgh North and Leith is also Cllr for Leith Walk ward - could be close, but would expect an SNP hold.
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Post by boogieeck on May 10, 2015 20:26:27 GMT
Also Drew Hendry in Inverness
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johnr
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Post by johnr on May 12, 2015 15:02:27 GMT
Peter Grant (Glenrothes) stepped down as leader of SNP group in Fife today - no word on stepping down as a councillor though.
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Post by irish observer on May 12, 2015 19:13:54 GMT
Aside from the 2 in Aberdeen the following by-elections should also occur in due course due to SNP resignations.
Drew Hendry - Highland - Aird and Loch Ness
Steven Paterson - Stirling - Stirling East
Peter Grant - Fife - Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
Douglas Chapman - Fife - Rosyth
John McNally - Falkirk - Denny and Banknock
Owen Thompson - Midlothian - Midlothian West
Martyn Day - West Lothian - Linlithgow
Deidre Brock - City of Edinburgh - Leith Walk
Alison Thewsliss - Glasgow City - Calton
Martin Docherty - Glasgow City - Anderston/City
Angela Crawley - South Lanarkshire - Hamilton South
Marion Fellows - North Lanarkshire - Wishaw
Alan Brown - East Ayrshire - Irvine Valley
Corri Wilson - South Ayrshire - Ayr East
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Post by boogieeck on May 13, 2015 8:02:45 GMT
Good work IO. Now tell me which ones are safe, which are in the mix and which would be lost under STV and which if lost could result in a council changing hands, for those are the questions. I would have thought the SNP would have fancied a Super Thursday in July to create a big silly season story but they know lots better than I do.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 13, 2015 8:30:32 GMT
Aside from the 2 in Aberdeen the following by-elections should also occur in due course due to SNP resignations. Drew Hendry - Highland - Aird and Loch Ness - Could be lost to a popular indy, otherwise will be SNPSteven Paterson - Stirling - Stirling East From 2012 Lab would be in the lead, but SNP must be in with a shout of holding nowPeter Grant - Fife - Glenrothes West and Kinglassie Should be SNP hold - led in 2012Douglas Chapman - Fife - Rosyth Again significant Lab lead in 2012, could well be SNP hold this timeJohn McNally - Falkirk - Denny and Banknock Safe SNP holdOwen Thompson - Midlothian - Midlothian West Should be sage SNPMartyn Day - West Lothian - Linlithgow Should be safe SNPDeidre Brock - City of Edinburgh - Leith Walk 5 point Lab lead in 2012, should go SNP, but Labour might hold up betterAlison Thewsliss - Glasgow City - Calton 25 point Lab lead in 2012, but its Glasgow so who knowsMartin Docherty - Glasgow City - Anderston/City 20 point Lab lead in 2012, see aboveAngela Crawley - South Lanarkshire - Hamilton South 20 point Lab lead in 2012, see GlasgowMarion Fellows - North Lanarkshire - Wishaw 23 point Lab lead in 2012, as aboveAlan Brown - East Ayrshire - Irvine Valley Safe SNP holdCorri Wilson - South Ayrshire - Ayr East Should SNP hold. |
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Post by boogieeck on May 13, 2015 8:40:34 GMT
Cheers Tony. Could be at least 17 council by elections on one day, which would be great fun and mildly historic. I don't see any risk of the SNP losing a council over it and a fair chance of holding 14+ seats.
They should do a Super Thursday for our sake if nothing else. It also gives them the advantage in terms of having enough volunteers to fight all 17. Nobody else does.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 13, 2015 9:50:07 GMT
Though it should be pointed out that, remarkably, SLab has gained members both during and after this GE campaign.
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johnr
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Post by johnr on May 13, 2015 18:18:07 GMT
Though it should be pointed out that, remarkably, SLab has gained members both during and after this GE campaign. I keep hearing this, but nothing specific. UK Party has now gained 30,000 since the election. |
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2015 19:33:38 GMT
Though it should be pointed out that, remarkably, SLab has gained members both during and after this GE campaign. I keep hearing this, but nothing specific. UK Party has now gained 30,000 since the election. You've got me, thats worth 30,000 |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 26, 2015 15:00:53 GMT
Andy May (SNP) also resigned today from Aberdeen City Council. George Street and the Harbour by-election on 1st October worth counting the day after. That seems a very long way away for a by-election. I thought they had to happen quicker than that in Scotland by law? |
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kevin
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Post by kevin on May 26, 2015 15:02:45 GMT
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 27, 2015 7:51:32 GMT
That seems a very long way away for a by-election. I thought they had to happen quicker than that in Scotland by law? The Cllr concerned has not resigned yet he has given notice that he will be resigning in July. OK, that makes more sense. |
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Post by boogieeck on Jun 5, 2015 16:48:57 GMT
Why congratulations? Has he defected to SNP?
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Post by David Boothroyd on Jun 23, 2015 13:56:11 GMT
(Midlothian West ward)
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Post by boogieeck on Jun 24, 2015 9:09:04 GMT
www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/618571/twenty-councillors-in-marischal-square-probe/Among which is the Non aligned administration member, Cllr Fraser Forsyth. He informed the P&J that once the probe is complete he will resign his seat as he intends to move to England, triggering a by election in the Rosemount/Midstocket ward. Earlier, much earlier, speaking exclusively to Boogieeck he said "I would have resigned earlier but I am not giving these delusional muppets the satisfaction of claiming that they forced me to resign. Once we are cleared, I can go". At least he may have said that, or I may be filling in the gaps in conversation based on how well I know him. Who knows.
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Post by Benjamin on Jun 30, 2015 7:29:41 GMT
There will be a two-seat by-election in Leith Walk in Edinburgh on 10th September. SNP councillor Deirdre Brock was elected to Westminster for Edinburgh North & Leith, and Green councillor (and party co-convenor) Maggie Chapman has stood down to focus on the Holyrood campaign in North East Scotland, where she is at the top of the list.
Edit: This is still subject to confirmation from the returning officer, though this is what is expected to happen.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 2, 2015 14:37:23 GMT
Irish Observer provided us on 12th May with a list of 16 SNP Councillors who had been elected as MPs. So far I make it 11 have resigned as Councillors with another 5 to go.
Kirsty Blackman - Aberdeen - Hilton / Woodside / Stockethill
Callum McCaig - Aberdeen - Kincorth / Nigg / Cove
Drew Hendry - Highland - Aird and Loch Ness
Steven Paterson - Stirling - Stirling East
Peter Grant - Fife - Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
Douglas Chapman - Fife - Rosyth
John McNally - Falkirk - Denny and Banknock
Owen Thompson - Midlothian - Midlothian West
Martyn Day - West Lothian - Linlithgow
Deidre Brock - City of Edinburgh - Leith Walk
Alison Thewsliss - Glasgow City - Calton
Martin Docherty - Glasgow City - Anderston / City
Angela Crawley - South Lanarkshire - Hamilton South
Marion Fellows - North Lanarkshire - Wishaw
Alan Brown - East Ayrshire - Irvine Valley
Corri Wilson - South Ayrshire - Ayr East
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 2, 2015 14:51:35 GMT
There will be a two-seat by-election in Leith Walk in Edinburgh on 10th September. SNP councillor Deirdre Brock was elected to Westminster for Edinburgh North & Leith, and Green councillor (and party co-convenor) Maggie Chapman has stood down to focus on the Holyrood campaign in North East Scotland, where she is at the top of the list. Edit: This is still subject to confirmation from the returning officer, though this is what is expected to happen. I think this will be the first multiple vacancy by-election in Scotland since 2007 (and thus the first STV (as opposed to AV by-election).). Will be interesting to see how many candidates each party puts up. I'd guess the SNP will go for 2, Conservatives, LDs and Greens for 1. Labour would be the question mark? Probably only 1. |
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