Scottish Council by elections

[Deleted]

Aug 12, 2015 22:44:25 GMT @fraser said:

I've lost the link however I understand labour had suspended their candidate in tomorrows Falkirk by election for sectarian remarks on social media.

feckin brilliant.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-33888551

[Pete Whitehead]

I don't suppose he would want to stay in the Labour party much longer anyway once its elected an IRA supporting leader

[maxque]

Aug 13, 2015 7:38:13 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don't suppose he would want to stay in the Labour party much longer anyway once its elected an IRA supporting leader

Why continuing fighting a war which was ended almost 20 years ago? Probably better to just forget about it for the sake of Northern Ireland future.

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm not fighting any war - You can (maybe) forgive your enemies when the war is over, but never forgive a traitor let alone let him run the country he reviles

[middleenglander]

The first 25 local council by-election seats since the 2015 General Election

Election Date	Authority	Ward	Result	Labour to SNP swing since 2012	Labour to SNP swing since 2007
9th July	North Lanarkshire	Thorniewood	SNP hold	25.3%	24.4%
30th July	Aberdeen	Hilton / Woodside / Stockethill	SNP hold	19.8%	17.6%
30th July	Aberdeen	Kincorth / Nigg / Cove	SNP hold	22.8%	21.2%
6th August	Glasgow	Anderston / City	SNP hold	20.1%	15.8%
6th August	Glasgow	Calton	SNP hold	24.9%	26.8%
6th August	Glasgow	Craigton	SNP hold	21.4%	22.1%
6th August	Glasgow	Langside	SNP gain from Green	13.1%	17.0%
6th August	South Lanarkshire	Hamilton South	SNP hold	15.6%	18.4%
13th August	Falkirk	Denny & Bankock	SNP hold	23.0%	24.4%
13th August	North Lanarkshire	Wishaw	SNP hold	20.8%	23.3%
18th August	Orkney	West Mainland	Orkney Manifesto win	n / a	n / a
10th September	Edinburgh	Leith Walk - 1st seat
		Leith Walk - 2nd seat
10th September	Midlothian	Midlothian West
17th September	South Ayrshire	Ayr East
1st October	Aberdeen	George Street / Harbour
1st October	Aberdeen	Midstocket / Rosemount
1st October	East Ayrshire	Irvine Valley
1st October	Fife	Glenrothes West & Kinglassie
1st October	Moray	Heldon & Laich
1st October	Stirling	Stirling East
1st October	West Lothian	Linlithgow
8th October	Huighland	Aird & Loch Ness
Pending	Western Isles	Westside & Ness
Possible	Fife	Rosyth

[middleenglander]

The SNP are defending 16 seats following resignations since the General Election with 3 more possible. So far there have been 9 by-elections with the party holding everyone comfortably / more than comfortably. These include all the most difficult contests on paper as of the 7 remaining Edinburgh, Leith Walk is the next most difficult where in 2012 Labour had a 4.7% majority on first preferences. Two of the rest had Labour less than 2% ahead in 2012 whilst in the other 4 SNP were ahead.

[marksenior]

Stirling East by election is on 1st October

[boogieeck]

www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/news/release.asp?newsID=4170

Cllr Joanna Strathdee has died. I am sure the link is wrong, she was I think selected to fight Aberdeen North at the GE but stood down when diagnosed. (Then) Cllr Kirsty Blackwood won it in the SNP landslide.

Joanna led the SNP into the last council elections but was deposed shortly afterwards, then reinstated when Cllr Rob Merson's two hour reign ended in ignominy when he failed in his promise to deliver a coalition with Indies.

[boogieeck]

That makes sense, although I do not recall it and should. Kevin Stewart was not on the listings

[Deleted]

Glenrothes West and Kinglassie on October the 1st. (Alan Seath will stand for Labour)Peter Grant having moved to Wesminster having at last beaten down the resistance of the Glenrothes electorate.

[boogieeck]

Conservative candidate for George Street, Brian Davidson. Described a veteran campaigner which does not do him justice.

Rosemount, Tom Mason, who the party described as "who hosted the strawberry tea" when former councillor 1996-1999 might have been more appropriate.

[middleenglander]

The first 25 local council by-election seats since the 2015 General Election

Election Date	Authority	Ward	Result	Labour to SNP swing since 2012	Labour to SNP swing since 2007
9th July	North Lanarkshire	Thorniewood	SNP hold	25.3%	24.4%
30th July	Aberdeen	Hilton / Woodside / Stockethill	SNP hold	19.8%	17.6%
30th July	Aberdeen	Kincorth / Nigg / Cove	SNP hold	22.8%	21.2%
6th August	Glasgow	Anderston / City	SNP hold	20.1%	15.8%
6th August	Glasgow	Calton	SNP hold	24.9%	26.8%
6th August	Glasgow	Craigton	SNP hold	21.4%	22.1%
6th August	Glasgow	Langside	SNP gain from Green	13.1%	17.0%
6th August	South Lanarkshire	Hamilton South	SNP hold	15.6%	18.4%
13th August	Falkirk	Denny & Bankock	SNP hold	23.0%	24.4%
13th August	North Lanarkshire	Wishaw	SNP hold	20.8%	23.3%
18th August	Orkney	West Mainland	Orkney Manifesto win	n / a	n / a
10th September	Edinburgh	Leith Walk - 1st seat	SNP hold	7.7%	7.6%
		Leith Walk - 2nd seat	Labour gain from Green
10th September	Midlothian	Midlothian West	SNP hold	6.2%	4.3%
17th September	South Ayrshire	Ayr East	SNP hold	6.9%	12.4%
1st October	Aberdeen	George Street / Harbour	SNP hold	11.4%	12.6%
1st October	Aberdeen	Midstocket / Rosemount	SNP gain from Conservative	6.5%	7.2%
1st October	East Ayrshire	Irvine Valley	SNP hold	5.8%	7.0%
1st October	Fife	Glenrothes West & Kinglassie	SNP hold	12.9%	6.7%
1st October	Moray	Heldon & Laich	Independent hold	n / a	n / a
1st October	Stirling	Stirling East	SNP hold	9.4%	6.9%
1st October	West Lothian	Linlithgow	SNP hold	-0.6%	-1.3%
7th October	Western Isles	West Side & Ness	No Description gain from Independent	n / a	n / a
8th October	Highland	Aird & Loch Ness	Liberal Democrat gain from SNP	n / a	n / a
Possible	Fife	Rosyth

[boogieeck]

Theatre Director and landlord offers to represent the austerity hit poor of Rosemount. Noblesse Oblige

[middleenglander]

Jul 14, 2015 8:57:15 GMT middleenglander said:

Jul 2, 2015 14:37:23 GMT middleenglander said:

Irish Observer provided us on 12th May with a list of 16 SNP Councillors who had been elected as MPs. So far I make it 11 have resigned as Councillors with another 5 to go.

Kirsty Blackman - Aberdeen - Hilton / Woodside / Stockethill
Callum McCaig - Aberdeen - Kincorth / Nigg / Cove
Drew Hendry - Highland - Aird and Loch Ness
Steven Paterson - Stirling - Stirling East
Peter Grant - Fife - Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
Douglas Chapman - Fife - Rosyth
John McNally - Falkirk - Denny and Banknock
Owen Thompson - Midlothian - Midlothian West
Martyn Day - West Lothian - Linlithgow
Deidre Brock - City of Edinburgh - Leith Walk
Alison Thewsliss - Glasgow City - Calton
Martin Docherty - Glasgow City - Anderston / City
Angela Crawley - South Lanarkshire - Hamilton South
Marion Fellows - North Lanarkshire - Wishaw
Alan Brown - East Ayrshire - Irvine Valley
Corri Wilson - South Ayrshire - Ayr East

now 1 to go

All now resigned.

[boogieeck]

I can report (probably exclusively) from Fort Augustus on the banks of Loch Ness that Greens, SNP and Lib Dem 1 have posters affixed to lampposts. The startling fact is of course that there are lampposts.

[afleitch]

I’ve been looking at the total number of votes cast in local authority by-elections in Scotland since ‘the event.’ Here are the figures

SNP 48.8
LAB 24.2
CON 11.7
LIB 5.2
GRN 5.0

The results in those same wards in 2012 was as follows:

SNP 34.9
LAB 38.3
CON 9.3
LIB 4.7
GRN 4.6

Bearing in mind that the SNP topped the poll (just) in 2012, then the wards being fought are slightly more ‘Labour’ than the national average.

The change in vote across those seats was therefore;

SNP +13.9
LAB -14.1
CON +2.5
LIB 0.5
GRN +0.4

Remember, this is a change on 2012, If this change happened across all seats in Scotland then you’d get the following result (using proportional rather than UNS)

SNP 45.2
LAB 19.8
CON 16.9
LIB 7.3
GRN 2.5

So while on raw totals, the Labour and SNP position looks comparable to the General election, in fact adjusting for the neck and neck 2012 results suggests that Labour are doing worse (and the Conservatives significantly better) than they did in the GE. Given that Labour have posted pooer results in Holyrood/Local Elections for many years than they do at the GE, this is to be expected.

There have also been four by-elections each in Aberdeen and Glasgow, so we can look at some regional variance too;

Aberdeen

SNP +16.8
LAB -14.6
CON +6
LIB -0.8
GRN +1.2

Glasgow

SNP +19.6
LAB -19.9
CON +1.9
LIB -0.8
GRN +2.4

[boogieeck]

Confirmation as if it were needed that the Scottish Conservative party need to adopt a position that can be portrayed as anti Glasgow. The message we have is unpopular in Glasgow and environs and increasingly popular elsewhere.

The Nat master plan is two fold, to make Scotland demonstrably different form England in any conceivable way to foment division and to make every part of Scotland the same as every other part of Scotland to forge a feeling of national identity. The Scottish Conservative party need to do offering the exact opposite, which includes promoting regional difference

[maxque]

There is an huge caveat, it's very irregular.

In Linlithgow, Conservatives lost 13% and were 3rd in a ward where they were usually 2nd or 1st.
It's the reverse in East Ayrshire.

[Tony Otim]

As mentioned elsewhere, there's a large personal vote for the Conservative incumbent in Linlithgow which obviously didn't transfer to another candidate.

For Labour there is some encouragement that the direction of travel does seem to have at least reversed, but they're still looking generally at a swing against since 2012. This suggests that currently next May would still see them lose seats, but there's time for that to change yet.

[piperdave]

Taking the results we've had over the last couple of months, you'd at least be looking at the SNP to take the second seat in those three-member wards where it is a battle between them and Labour. Candidate nomination and vote management strategies will be key and, as you say, there's still plenty of time to play for it all.