Scottish Council by elections

[AdminSTB]

We've had forum members contest by-elections many times before, but am I right in saying this is the first time a forum member has caused a by-election? If so, I owe Fraser a drink for the ad revenue it'll generate on my results site.

[Deleted]

Aug 3, 2015 9:06:10 GMT AdminSTB said:

We've had forum members contest by-elections many times before, but am I right in saying this is the first time a forum member has caused a by-election? If so, I owe Fraser a drink for the ad revenue it'll generate on my results site.

*cough*

[AdminSTB]

Aug 3, 2015 11:10:25 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Aug 3, 2015 9:06:10 GMT AdminSTB said:

We've had forum members contest by-elections many times before, but am I right in saying this is the first time a forum member has caused a by-election? If so, I owe Fraser a drink for the ad revenue it'll generate on my results site.

*cough*

I thought we didn't talk about that one... It was before the start of the by-election result list on my English Elections site anyway.

[middleenglander]

The first 25 local council by-election seats since the 2015 General Election

Election Date	Authority	Ward	Result	Labour to SNP swing since 2012	Labour to SNP swing since 2007
9th July	North Lanarkshire	Thorniewood	SNP hold	25.3%	24.4%
30th July	Aberdeen	Hilton / Woodside / Stockethill	SNP hold	19.8%	17.6%
30th July	Aberdeen	Kincorth / Nigg / Cove	SNP hold	22.8%	21.2%
6th August	Glasgow	Anderston / City	SNP hold	20.1%	15.8%
6th August	Glasgow	Calton	SNP hold	24.9%	26.8%
6th August	Glasgow	Craigton	SNP hold	21.4%	22.1%
6th August	Glasgow	Langside	SNP gain from Green	13.1%	17.0%
6th August	South Lanarkshire	Hamilton South	SNP hold	15.6%	18.4%
13th August	Falkirk	Denny & Bankock
13th August	North Lanarkshire	Wishaw
18th August	Orkney	West Mainland		n / a	n / a
10th September	Edinburgh	Leith Walk - 1st seat
		Leith Walk - 2nd seat
10th September	Midlothian	Midlothian West
17th September	South Ayrshire	Ayr East
1st October	Aberdeen	George Street / Harbour
1st October	Aberdeen	Midstocket / Rosemount
1st October	East Ayrshire	Irvine Valley
1st October	Fife	Glenrothes West & Kinglassie
1st October	Moray	Heldon * Laich
8th October	Highland	Aird & Loch Ness
Pending	Western Isles	Westside & Ness
Possible	Fife	Rosyth
Possible	Stirling	Stirling East
Possible	West Lothian	Linlithgow

[Deleted]

Jul 30, 2015 10:20:31 GMT @fraser said:

I this morning resigned from Aberdeen City Council the by election will be held in October. I've moved cities in order to concentrate on the most important roles I'll ever have, Jam Tart supporter, Husband, father, grandfather and part time taxi driver.

Fixed

[Deleted]

Gordon Matheson falls on his sword and is standing down this month. Of course he had that many knives in his back it ardley mattered.

[piperdave]

He is only allegedly resigning as leader of the Council. No official announcements as yet. And I'd be surprised if he resigned his seat before actually being elected to Holyrood. Given Labour's current form, I don't think they could stomach another by-election in Anderston/City when they'd actually lose a seat.

[middleenglander]

My reading is that there are 10 candidates for the 2 seats - Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, UKIP, Left Unity, Libertarian, Socialist and Independent. Surprised there are not 2 candidates for the SNP etc or is this a feature of "double" by-elections under the proportional system.

[andrewteale]

Two seats under STV would mean two quotas, or 67% of the vote. 60%-65% might be enough depending how the transfers work out. Realistically, nobody in Leith Walk is going to get close to that level - the leading score last time was 33.2% for Labour.

[Tony Otim]

The SNP would be the only ones who would possibly consider 2 candidates. I'm quite glad that they haven't, obviously. I have some mixed feelings as I do know the Labour candidate a little bit and she would probably make a good councillor, but we might actually hold our seat.

[piperdave]

There's nothing in the rules to prevent a party running as many candidates as it likes. You could even nominate 10 for a single vacancy but that would be electoral suicide so parties tend to only field as many as they think they can win. That's still a work in progress. And as Andrew mentioned above, you'd have to win 66.67% to guarantee the two seats, I reckon you could possibly go as low as 54% but you'd need each round of transfers to be falling well in your favour to pull that off. It will certainly be one of the more interesting by-election results we've had in a while.

[No Offence Alan]

I suspect that if the SNP fielded 2 candidates in the Leith Walk by-election, the result would be 1 SNP, 1 Lab elected.
As it is, with just 1 SNP candidate, I think the result will be 1 SNP, 1 Green elected.
This may have influenced their thinking.

[Tony Otim]

Aug 12, 2015 7:33:20 GMT No Offence Alan said:

I suspect that if the SNP fielded 2 candidates in the Leith Walk by-election, the result would be 1 SNP, 1 Lab elected.
As it is, with just 1 SNP candidate, I think the result will be 1 SNP, 1 Green elected.
This may have influenced their thinking.

Perhaps, although the first option equates to 2 coalition councillors, and the second 1 coalition and 1opposition in Edinburgh at the moment.

Locally relationships between the SNP and us have never been that friendly.

Realistically, I'd guess their vote will be around, 40%, maybe up to 45% tops. So 1 quota comfortably, but a lot of ground to make up for the second, so why risk it? In both cases, I'd reckon the second seat may well be too close to call. Certainly with 1 SNP candidate I'd guess they'd have a surplus and that a lot of that surplus will transfer to Greens, which may move us from 3rd to 2nd, but the same would be true after the elimination of the second SNP candidate, because I just don't see them doing well enough to get 2 in the top 3. Then it will depend how many Con and LD votes transfer which way or not at all. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't risk anything on calling the second seat here.

[Deleted]

Aug 12, 2015 22:44:25 GMT @fraser said:

I've lost the link however I understand labour had suspended their candidate in tomorrows Falkirk by election for sectarian remarks on social media.

feckin brilliant.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-33888551

[Pete Whitehead]

I don't suppose he would want to stay in the Labour party much longer anyway once its elected an IRA supporting leader

[maxque]

Aug 13, 2015 7:38:13 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don't suppose he would want to stay in the Labour party much longer anyway once its elected an IRA supporting leader

Why continuing fighting a war which was ended almost 20 years ago? Probably better to just forget about it for the sake of Northern Ireland future.

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm not fighting any war - You can (maybe) forgive your enemies when the war is over, but never forgive a traitor let alone let him run the country he reviles

[middleenglander]

The first 25 local council by-election seats since the 2015 General Election

Election Date	Authority	Ward	Result	Labour to SNP swing since 2012	Labour to SNP swing since 2007
9th July	North Lanarkshire	Thorniewood	SNP hold	25.3%	24.4%
30th July	Aberdeen	Hilton / Woodside / Stockethill	SNP hold	19.8%	17.6%
30th July	Aberdeen	Kincorth / Nigg / Cove	SNP hold	22.8%	21.2%
6th August	Glasgow	Anderston / City	SNP hold	20.1%	15.8%
6th August	Glasgow	Calton	SNP hold	24.9%	26.8%
6th August	Glasgow	Craigton	SNP hold	21.4%	22.1%
6th August	Glasgow	Langside	SNP gain from Green	13.1%	17.0%
6th August	South Lanarkshire	Hamilton South	SNP hold	15.6%	18.4%
13th August	Falkirk	Denny & Bankock	SNP hold	23.0%	24.4%
13th August	North Lanarkshire	Wishaw	SNP hold	20.8%	23.3%
18th August	Orkney	West Mainland	Orkney Manifesto win	n / a	n / a
10th September	Edinburgh	Leith Walk - 1st seat
		Leith Walk - 2nd seat
10th September	Midlothian	Midlothian West
17th September	South Ayrshire	Ayr East
1st October	Aberdeen	George Street / Harbour
1st October	Aberdeen	Midstocket / Rosemount
1st October	East Ayrshire	Irvine Valley
1st October	Fife	Glenrothes West & Kinglassie
1st October	Moray	Heldon & Laich
1st October	Stirling	Stirling East
1st October	West Lothian	Linlithgow
8th October	Huighland	Aird & Loch Ness
Pending	Western Isles	Westside & Ness
Possible	Fife	Rosyth

[middleenglander]

The SNP are defending 16 seats following resignations since the General Election with 3 more possible. So far there have been 9 by-elections with the party holding everyone comfortably / more than comfortably. These include all the most difficult contests on paper as of the 7 remaining Edinburgh, Leith Walk is the next most difficult where in 2012 Labour had a 4.7% majority on first preferences. Two of the rest had Labour less than 2% ahead in 2012 whilst in the other 4 SNP were ahead.

[marksenior]

Stirling East by election is on 1st October