BMG

[Lord Twaddleford]

Sept 23, 2017 16:56:28 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Sept 23, 2017 15:20:56 GMT cogload said:

Did he ever have  hair? I think we should be told.

Don't think this is a wig:

It's a wig. Patrick Stewart has been bald since he was 18.

[thetop]

[jigger]

BMG got the June election wrong by the largest margin of any pollster and they have had some rather erratic polls since the General election as well. Although it's important to never dismiss their polls out of hand, I have the least confidence in their polls. Opinium's poll looks more likely.

[thetop]

There might an Angus Reed effect going on where they wildly overstate the party likeliest to win.

[tamar]

Oct 11, 1974 18:08:41 GMT thetop said:

There might an Angus Reed effect going on where they wildly overstate the party likeliest to win.

This is the Tories' lowest showing in any poll during this Parliament, and their last poll was Labour's lowest showing during this Parliament, so I suspect you're right.

[Deleted]

Oct 8, 2017 13:23:14 GMT jigger said:

BMG got the June election wrong by the largest margin of any pollster and they have had some rather erratic polls since the General election as well. Although it's important to never dismiss their polls out of hand, I have the least confidence in their polls. Opinium's poll looks more likely.

But YouGov got it right, lets see what their next poll says. If it confirms it then I would say it is a trend...

[jigger]

Oct 8, 2017 13:55:38 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Oct 8, 2017 13:23:14 GMT jigger said:

BMG got the June election wrong by the largest margin of any pollster and they have had some rather erratic polls since the General election as well. Although it's important to never dismiss their polls out of hand, I have the least confidence in their polls. Opinium's poll looks more likely.

But YouGov got it right, lets see what their next poll says. If it confirms it then I would say it is a trend...

Well You Gov's most recent poll suggested a swing to the Conservatives from their previous poll. Also BMGs fieldwork for its poll is much more out-of-date than the Opinium and You Gov polls. 

[Deleted]

Oct 8, 2017 14:00:45 GMT jigger said:

Oct 8, 2017 13:55:38 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

But YouGov got it right, lets see what their next poll says. If it confirms it then I would say it is a trend...

Well You Gov's most recent poll suggested a swing to the Conservatives from their previous poll. Also BMGs fieldwork for its poll is much more out-of-date than the Opinium and You Gov polls. 

Ah, but that those polls were taken before the Mother of all Party Conferences cock-up...

[The Bishop]

That poll from YouGov also suggested Corbyn had slashed May's lead in the "best PM" question, so I am a bit wary of it until further polling evidence emerges.

[jigger]

Oct 8, 2017 14:03:36 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Oct 8, 2017 14:00:45 GMT jigger said:

Well You Gov's most recent poll suggested a swing to the Conservatives from their previous poll. Also BMGs fieldwork for its poll is much more out-of-date than the Opinium and You Gov polls. 

Ah, but that those polls were taken before the Mother of all Party Conferences cock-up...

Not quite - the fieldwork dates for more than half of the Opinium and half of the You Gov poll came after the Leader of the Conservative Party addressed the Conservative Party Conference. 

[Deleted]

Oct 8, 2017 14:06:13 GMT jigger said:

Oct 8, 2017 14:03:36 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Ah, but that those polls were taken before the Mother of all Party Conferences cock-up...

Not quite - the fieldwork dates for more than half of the Opinium and half of the You Gov poll came after the Leader of the Conservative Party addressed the Conservative Party Conference. 

I guess those questioned were still on automatic "Tory Leader's Speech approval" mode. The shock will have taken some time to set in.

[tamar]

Oct 8, 2017 13:55:38 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

Oct 8, 2017 13:23:14 GMT jigger said:

BMG got the June election wrong by the largest margin of any pollster and they have had some rather erratic polls since the General election as well. Although it's important to never dismiss their polls out of hand, I have the least confidence in their polls. Opinium's poll looks more likely.

But YouGov got it right, lets see what their next poll says. If it confirms it then I would say it is a trend...

YouGov's model got it right, their final poll was just as wrong as everyone else's.

[greenchristian]

Oct 8, 2017 14:47:24 GMT tamar said:

Oct 8, 2017 13:55:38 GMT @williamhone1780 said:

But YouGov got it right, lets see what their next poll says. If it confirms it then I would say it is a trend...

YouGov's model got it right, their final poll was just as wrong as everyone else's.

Though that was mostly because they made methodology changes to that final poll (can anybody say "herding"?). If they hadn't, their final poll would have been pretty close to their model.

[archaeologist]

Full figures from BMG

www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independentbmg-poll-labour-take-polling-lead/

Con  37  (-2)
Lab  42  (+4)
LDm  10  (+2)
UKIP  4  (-2)
Grn  3  (-1)
Oth  4  (0)


29th Sept. with changes from  15th Sept.

Not that I actually believe opinion polls any more!

[thetop]

“Imagine a scenario where the UK Government and the European Union were unable to reach a deal – a scenario sometimes referred to as a “no deal” Brexit. A “no deal” Brexit would result in the UK having no preferential trading and customs arrangements with the EU, leaving us to trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. In this scenario, would you support a new in-out referendum on EU membership?”

54% Support
46% Against

More information in the LeftFootForward article:

74% of 18-24 year olds would back a new referendum in the event of ‘no deal’, compared to only 40% of over 55s with a view.

31% of Conservatives would back a second vote, compared 70% of current Labour supporters.

[...]

The figure is particularly high for Scotland, with 77% of Scots supporting a fresh in-out vote if talks were unsuccessful. That drops to 42% of people in the East of England.

A surprising one in five (21%) Leave voters would support another referendum if the negotiations failed and the UK was left to trade under World Trade Organisation rules. 80% of Remain voters would back a fresh vote.

Funny how symmetrical things are in the bold parts. Apparently more polling from the same batch is to be released in the following days.

[Deleted]

Oct 9, 2017 6:50:03 GMT archaeologist said:

Full figures from BMG

www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independentbmg-poll-labour-take-polling-lead/

Con  37  (-2)
Lab  42  (+4)
LDm  10  (+2)
UKIP  4  (-2)
Grn  3  (-1)
Oth  4  (0)


29th Sept. with changes from  15th Sept.

Not that I actually believe opinion polls any more!

Con 40 (+3)
Labour 40 (-2)

[Chris from Brum]

Where is this being cited (apart from here?) Are full figures available?

[The Bishop]

Not yet, apparently. But the above has been confirmed on the Britain Elects site.

[Andrew_S]

Feb 14, 2018 13:52:54 GMT The Bishop said:

Not yet, apparently. But the above has been confirmed on the Britain Elects site.

Details:

www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmg-independent-conservatives-labour-neck-neck-latest-voting-intention-poll/

Con 40% (+3)
Lab 40% (nc)
LD 8% (-1)
UKIP 5% (nc)
Greens 4% (+1)
SNP 2% (-1)

[Andrew_S]

"CON 39        (+1)
LAB 38        (-2)
LD 11 (+1)
UKIP 3 (-1)
GRN 4 (+1)
SNP 4        (=)

Fieldwork 10th-13th Apr (Changes vs 13th-16th Mar)
N=1,562"