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BMG
Jan 14, 2020 10:50:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Jan 14, 2020 10:50:47 GMT
Greens are clearly up 6% - somebody has to be up 😉 I reckon you might genuinely up 2% or so, partly because green issues are in the public consciousness right now due to Australia. However, most of the change seen is because we aren't comparing like with like. Not standing everywhere will have led to the Brexit Party (and to a lesser extent your party) doing worse in the General Election than VI polls would imply. I think this change is mostly a correction. Green vote was heavily squeezed by FPTP especially towards Labour. Greens up and Lab down very predictable and closer to what people actually want. BXP and Ukip up a bit as said above |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 14, 2020 16:05:53 GMT
Con Gain from Lab
Alyn and Deeside
Bedford
Coventry North West
Coventry South
Dagenham and Rainham
Newport West
Stockton North
Wansbeck
Warwick and Leamington
Weaver Vale
Lib Dem Gain from Lab
Sheffield Hallam
Conservative majority 100
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BMG
Jan 15, 2020 21:07:04 GMT
Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 15, 2020 21:07:04 GMT
Con Gain from Lab Alyn and Deeside Bedford Coventry North West Coventry South Dagenham and Rainham Newport West Stockton North Wansbeck Warwick and Leamington Weaver Vale Lib Dem Gain from Lab Sheffield Hallam Conservative majority 100 When I put 44/29/11/5/4 into Electoral Calculus, it also predicts a few extra Con gains from Lab: Canterbury; Chesterfield; Hemsworth; Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford; Oldham East and Saddleworth; Warrington North; Wolverhampton South East. |
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BMG
Jan 15, 2020 21:12:44 GMT
via mobile
Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 15, 2020 21:12:44 GMT
Yes but what purpose can it possibly serve? I suppose you could ask that about any poll carried out right up until the 2024 campaign begins. Consistency and academic interest, I suppose. For what they're worth we've had VI polls every month for several decades, regardless of what stage of a Parliament we're at. Gives the psephologists something to talk about, too. And they have, like it or not, had a profound impact on our political history. If there had been no polls conducted in 1990 showing the Tories well behind it would have been less likely that Thatcher would have been forced out. |
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BMG
Apr 11, 2020 17:08:44 GMT
andrea likes this
Post by archaeologist on Apr 11, 2020 17:08:44 GMT
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BMG
Apr 12, 2020 19:05:10 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Apr 12, 2020 19:05:10 GMT
Oh what excitement. Still, in the probably absence of any elections at all this year, people will have to get excited by the polls.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Mar 23, 2021 17:50:14 GMT
A poll of polls is always a better indicator (as ever). Still, nice not to see such a large Tory lead.
Edit - Just realised this is comparing to April 2020.
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Post by robert1 on Apr 29, 2021 6:43:40 GMT
NewsUK UK Politics-Indy today
'Boris Johnson extends poll lead despite sleaze allegations Survey finds popularity slump for Labour’s Keir Starmer ahead of crucial elections'
Shows a 2% increase in Tory lead from March. Anyone have full details? Not up on BMG site yet. I believe it is 39%-35% |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Apr 29, 2021 8:58:08 GMT
NewsUK UK Politics-Indy today
'Boris Johnson extends poll lead despite sleaze allegations Survey finds popularity slump for Labour’s Keir Starmer ahead of crucial elections'
Shows a 2% increase in Tory lead from March. Anyone have full details? Not up on BMG site yet. I believe it is 39%-35% There's nothing on their Twitter either.
A four point lead is pretty good for Labour all things considered.
Here's the slump. It's for Starmer rather than the party.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2021 10:22:08 GMT
The last poll from them was a fairly obvious (pro-Labour) outlier, so.....
Plus this effort (as with the latest ComRes) was actually done before things "went nuclear" on Monday.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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BMG
Apr 29, 2021 10:57:07 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on Apr 29, 2021 10:57:07 GMT
40% approval. 60% of the country still think he is a tit or have no opinion.
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BMG
Apr 29, 2021 12:52:58 GMT
via mobile
Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 29, 2021 12:52:58 GMT
Incumbents tend to have an inherent advantage of 5-10% on that particular question.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 6, 2022 10:40:25 GMT
And apparently they’re back:
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2022 14:27:48 GMT
TBH had forgotten they existed.
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2022 14:28:01 GMT
the Conservatives that is  |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 20, 2022 10:00:22 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 30, 2022 16:32:36 GMT
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Post by batman on Sept 30, 2022 16:44:22 GMT
lower than other polls today, but some of the other polls were sampled even more recently.........
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2022 11:47:41 GMT
lower than other polls today, but some of the other polls were sampled even more recently......... Apparently this pollster uses fairly "generous" assumptions about previously Tory don't knows in the same sort of way Opinium and Kantar do. Given that, 17% is pretty big. Well its pretty big objectively speaking, but you know what I mean  |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
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Post by iain on Oct 27, 2022 21:50:18 GMT
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