Panelbase

[lancastrian]

Nov 23, 2019 0:12:43 GMT andrewp said:

Nov 22, 2019 23:43:48 GMT pepperminttea said:

It's almost certain the Tories won't win by over 10%, the country is far too divided for that. Labour voters that dislike Corbyn and co. are coming and will continue to come home. The question really is whether Labour can cut into their lead enough to force another hung parliament (yes I would be still utterly shocked if they won outright, though I accept there is a possibility that it could happen and I'm ruling nothing out). 

The country is divided but the 40% Tory vote does look pretty solid, and for a lot of them, given that this is the last chance for a Brexit, minor campaign gaffes are not going to shift them, it would take something huge IMO. Labour are going to need to squeeze the Lib Dem and Green vote massively.

ive thought over the last few days, 10% is about the ideal lead for the Tories, if they got up to 15+ percent, you risk a situation where your supporters become less motivated and any waverers would get behind Labour.

The other interesting point is what percentage lead will give the Tories a majority? They got close with a 2.5% lead last time and would have got one with a 4/5% lead. My sense is that point won’t have shifted much, if anything the vote spread may favour the Tories more with The Labour vote being more solid in the safe seats in cities and less solid in the Hartlepools and Bolton’s.

How big a lead the Tories need to be to win depends a lot on their performance against the Lib Dems and SNP. In the unlikely event they lose no seats they only need around 5 gains - do badly in those contests and they could need 20 or 30.

I'm not sure the distribution of votes will be particularly helpful to the Tories - if Labour lose a lot of votes in London or the North East it won't make much difference. Plus the question of what impact the Brexit Party will have. In 2010 a seven point lead failed to give a majority.

And finally, given the record of the polls, if the Tories remain about 10 points ahead in the polls until polling day, how high is the likelihood of them losing the election?

[andrew111]

Nov 23, 2019 0:38:58 GMT lancastrian said:

Nov 23, 2019 0:12:43 GMT andrewp said:

The country is divided but the 40% Tory vote does look pretty solid, and for a lot of them, given that this is the last chance for a Brexit, minor campaign gaffes are not going to shift them, it would take something huge IMO. Labour are going to need to squeeze the Lib Dem and Green vote massively.

ive thought over the last few days, 10% is about the ideal lead for the Tories, if they got up to 15+ percent, you risk a situation where your supporters become less motivated and any waverers would get behind Labour.

The other interesting point is what percentage lead will give the Tories a majority? They got close with a 2.5% lead last time and would have got one with a 4/5% lead. My sense is that point won’t have shifted much, if anything the vote spread may favour the Tories more with The Labour vote being more solid in the safe seats in cities and less solid in the Hartlepools and Bolton’s.

How big a lead the Tories need to be to win depends a lot on their performance against the Lib Dems and SNP. In the unlikely event they lose no seats they only need around 5 gains - do badly in those contests and they could need 20 or 30.

I'm not sure the distribution of votes will be particularly helpful to the Tories - if Labour lose a lot of votes in London or the North East it won't make much difference. Plus the question of what impact the Brexit Party will have. In 2010 a seven point lead failed to give a majority.

And finally, given the record of the polls, if the Tories remain about 10 points ahead in the polls until polling day, how high is the likelihood of them losing the election?

I think the Tories need to fall back to around 37% like in 2010 not to get a majority. To gain any seats from the Tories Labour need to get within 2% of them, which really looks unlikely this time. But incumbency may save them enough marginals to hang onto a lot. Then there will be gains for SNP and Lib Dems but on current polls not so many

[curiousliberal]

Nov 23, 2019 14:09:16 GMT andrew111 said:

Nov 23, 2019 0:38:58 GMT lancastrian said:

How big a lead the Tories need to be to win depends a lot on their performance against the Lib Dems and SNP. In the unlikely event they lose no seats they only need around 5 gains - do badly in those contests and they could need 20 or 30.

I'm not sure the distribution of votes will be particularly helpful to the Tories - if Labour lose a lot of votes in London or the North East it won't make much difference. Plus the question of what impact the Brexit Party will have. In 2010 a seven point lead failed to give a majority.

And finally, given the record of the polls, if the Tories remain about 10 points ahead in the polls until polling day, how high is the likelihood of them losing the election?

I think the Tories need to fall back to around 37% like in 2010 not to get a majority. To gain any seats from the Tories Labour need to get within 2% of them, which really looks unlikely this time. But incumbency may save them enough marginals to hang onto a lot. Then there will be gains for SNP and Lib Dems but on current polls not so many

That depends on where Labour end up and how well the SNP, the LDs, and a disparate group of other factions (BxP in a few seats, Claire Wright, Jason Zadroszny and SF in NI) perform in otherwise winnable seats. Let's not forget that Labour ending up with the same GB-wide voteshare would probably mean a higher voteshare in England and Wales given the continued decline of Scottish Labour. Personally I think the Conservatives probably need at least a 2% swing to gain a majority, though Curtice has argued it's 2.5%.

[andrew111]

Nov 23, 2019 15:05:05 GMT curiousliberal said:

Nov 23, 2019 14:09:16 GMT andrew111 said:

I think the Tories need to fall back to around 37% like in 2010 not to get a majority. To gain any seats from the Tories Labour need to get within 2% of them, which really looks unlikely this time. But incumbency may save them enough marginals to hang onto a lot. Then there will be gains for SNP and Lib Dems but on current polls not so many

That depends on where Labour end up and how well the SNP, the LDs, and a disparate group of other factions (BxP in a few seats, Claire Wright, Jason Zadroszny and SF in NI) perform in otherwise winnable seats. Let's not forget that Labour ending up with the same GB-wide voteshare would probably mean a higher voteshare in England and Wales given the continued decline of Scottish Labour. Personally I think the Conservatives probably need at least a 2% swing to gain a majority, though Curtice has argued it's 2.5%.

Labour being miles down in Scotland is one of a number of of reasons why they are unlikely to get the same vote share as in 2017, and us being well up on 2017 everywhere is another

[Deleted]

We haven't actually seen any polls on Scotland.

[justin124]

Nov 23, 2019 16:18:59 GMT andrew111 said:

Nov 23, 2019 15:05:05 GMT curiousliberal said:

That depends on where Labour end up and how well the SNP, the LDs, and a disparate group of other factions (BxP in a few seats, Claire Wright, Jason Zadroszny and SF in NI) perform in otherwise winnable seats. Let's not forget that Labour ending up with the same GB-wide voteshare would probably mean a higher voteshare in England and Wales given the continued decline of Scottish Labour. Personally I think the Conservatives probably need at least a 2% swing to gain a majority, though Curtice has argued it's 2.5%.

Labour being miles down in Scotland is one of a number of of reasons why they are unlikely to get the same vote share as in 2017, and us being well up on 2017 everywhere is another

But there has been very little Scotland polling. The last Panelbase poll conducted there in early October had voting intention as - SNP 39 Con 21 Lab 19 LD 13. Across GB Labour is at least 5 % higher since that poll and that might be reflected in their Scotland share too.

[curiousliberal]

Nov 23, 2019 16:29:14 GMT @priceofdawn said:

We haven't actually seen any polls on Scotland.

There's been a YouGov one within a month of the present date. Admittedly the national picture has shifted a lot since, but the general trend of opinion polling before and up to that point suggests Labour will punch below its weight in Scotland. The electrifying charisma of Richard Leonard won't, I think, be enough to save their overall vote-share, though I'll wager their campaigns in target constituencies may well pay off (in terms of garnering tactical votes etc) and deliver a couple of seat gains.

[justin124]

Nov 23, 2019 16:34:59 GMT curiousliberal said:

Nov 23, 2019 16:29:14 GMT @priceofdawn said:

We haven't actually seen any polls on Scotland.

There's been a YouGov one within a month of the present date. Admittedly the national picture has shifted a lot since, but the general trend of opinion polling before and up to that point suggests Labour will punch below its weight in Scotland. The electrifying charisma of Richard Leonard won't, I think, be enough to save their overall vote-share, though I'll wager their campaigns in target constituencies may well pay off (in terms of garnering tactical votes etc) and deliver a couple of seat gains.

I suspect that re-Westminster elections the leadership of the GB party matters far more than who happens to be the leader in Scotland. In the 1960s and 1970s , Harold Wilson was far more important in switching votes than Willie Ross. In 1997 and 2001 Blair mattered more than Dewar.

[curiousliberal]

Nov 23, 2019 16:45:26 GMT justin124 said:

Nov 23, 2019 16:34:59 GMT curiousliberal said:

There's been a YouGov one within a month of the present date. Admittedly the national picture has shifted a lot since, but the general trend of opinion polling before and up to that point suggests Labour will punch below its weight in Scotland. The electrifying charisma of Richard Leonard won't, I think, be enough to save their overall vote-share, though I'll wager their campaigns in target constituencies may well pay off (in terms of garnering tactical votes etc) and deliver a couple of seat gains.

I suspect that re-Westminster elections the leadership of the GB party matters far more than who happens to be the leader in Scotland. In the 1960s and 1970s , Harold Wilson was far more important in switching votes than Willie Ross. In 1997 and 2001 Blair mattered more than Dewar.

Up to a point, but I'd argue that's shifted since the SNP breakout of 2015 and the impetus subsequently thrust on all Scottish parties to act, or appear to act, a bit more autonomously. IMO Ruth Davidson gave the Scottish Conservatives a pretty hefty boost in 2017.

[No Offence Alan]

Nov 23, 2019 16:31:27 GMT justin124 said:

Nov 23, 2019 16:18:59 GMT andrew111 said:

Labour being miles down in Scotland is one of a number of of reasons why they are unlikely to get the same vote share as in 2017, and us being well up on 2017 everywhere is another

But there has been very little Scotland polling. The last Panelbase poll conducted there in early October had voting intention as - SNP 39 Con 21 Lab 19 LD 13. Across GB Labour is at least 5 % higher since that poll and that might be reflected in their Scotland share too.

if the Daily Record or Scottish Daily Mirror were confident that SLAB were doing well they would commission a poll, wouldn't they?

[andrew111]

Nov 23, 2019 16:31:27 GMT justin124 said:

Nov 23, 2019 16:18:59 GMT andrew111 said:

Labour being miles down in Scotland is one of a number of of reasons why they are unlikely to get the same vote share as in 2017, and us being well up on 2017 everywhere is another

But there has been very little Scotland polling. The last Panelbase poll conducted there in early October had voting intention as - SNP 39 Con 21 Lab 19 LD 13. Across GB Labour is at least 5 % higher since that poll and that might be reflected in their Scotland share too.

Labour have continued to do really badly in Scottish local by-elections compared to all the others. Whatever happens all but one of Labour's seats in Scotland are hyper marginal and a tiny swing to SNP will see them fall

[manchesterman]

Scottish Labour MPs = Ian Murray after Dec 12 - no?

[Tom]

Scottish Panelbase Poll for Sunday Times

SNP - 40%
Con - 28%
Lab - 20%
LD - 11%
BXP <1%

[curiousliberal]

Also for Panelbase (same poll):
 - Remain 52% (+1)
 - Leave 48% (-1)

Unexpected Green surge amidst what is presumably a squeeze (although the last spike in voter registration may contribute to a higher Labour total), but within the margin of error.

[The Bishop]

Nov 29, 2019 12:34:24 GMT curiousliberal said:

Also for Panelbase (same poll):
 - Remain 52% (+1)
 - Leave 48% (-1)

Unexpected Green surge amidst what is presumably a squeeze (although the last spike in voter registration may contribute to a higher Labour total), but within the margin of error.

Would that even show up in polls, certainly this quickly?

[curiousliberal]

Nov 29, 2019 13:51:29 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 29, 2019 12:34:24 GMT curiousliberal said:

Also for Panelbase (same poll):
 - Remain 52% (+1)
 - Leave 48% (-1)

Unexpected Green surge amidst what is presumably a squeeze (although the last spike in voter registration may contribute to a higher Labour total), but within the margin of error.

Would that even show up in polls, certainly this quickly?

Yes - the deadline was midnight 26 November, and the sampling dates are all after this.

[The Bishop]

Yes I know, but do pollsters pick it up right away? If a large number were indeed not previously registered voters, quite possibly not.

[lancastrian]

Nov 29, 2019 13:54:38 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes I know, but do pollsters pick it up right away? If a large number were indeed not previously registered voters, quite possibly not.

Polls in this country are generally just of the adult population - do any actually ask if you are registered to vote? People who have recently registered might give themselves a higher likelihood to vote though.

[Deleted]

[Chris from Brum]

EU Ref
Remain 52% (NC)
Leave 48% (NC)

"Unfinished business"