Panelbase

[Deleted]

Certainly todays launch looked good for Brexit Party. Almost had me convinced. Odds on Tory majority slashed in aftermath. Tories sending out the Spartans to combat Farage ofc they may not need to worry as it cpuld be 2015 all over again which is Farage line. Trying to gage opinion from my brexit friends who aren't political but have voted tory and like boris. They are very quiet. Shy tories or genuinely undecided. I think Farage does pose a problem for Boris in the same way Raab did which is why they got rid of him in the leadership race.

[Jack]

"A week is a long time in politics" doesn't really apply here.

[Deleted]

Panelbase have polled how people feel about a second independence referendun and the headline is Labour voters are not opposed to it. No numbers at the moment but does suggest that threat of a second independence referendum isnt as pertinent as it was in 2015

[andrew111]

Nov 8, 2019 20:58:05 GMT @priceofdawn said:

Panelbase have polled how people feel about a second independence referendun and the headline is Labour voters are not opposed to it. No numbers at the moment but does suggest that threat of a second independence referendum isnt as pertinent as it was in 2015

It was not a possible independence referendum that gave Labour problems in England in 2015 but the perception that Salmond would be telling Milliband what to do..

[justin124]

Nov 8, 2019 17:00:23 GMT Jack said:

"A week is a long time in politics" doesn't really apply here.

The poll shows a Lab to Con swing of 3.8% . On the basis of UNS , it implies 35 gains from Labour offset by 7 losses to LDs and 8 to SNP to leave them with 338 seats - a majority of 26.

[Andrew_S]

[andrewp]

Nov 15, 2019 15:16:14 GMT Andrew_S said:

I think that’s the Tories highest score so far isn’t it?

[Chris from Brum]

Nov 15, 2019 16:08:36 GMT andrewp said:

Nov 15, 2019 15:16:14 GMT Andrew_S said:

I think that’s the Tories highest score so far isn’t it?

Peaking too early?

[johng]

Postal voters will make up a significant number of voters (about 25%?) and they'll be voting soon.

[lancastrian]

If what Panelbase are picking up here is voters in already Tory seats switching back to the Tories in the absence of the Brexit Party, how useful is this swing either to the Tories or to anyone trying to analyse the polls?

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Nov 15, 2019 16:54:43 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Nov 15, 2019 16:08:36 GMT andrewp said:

I think that’s the Tories highest score so far isn’t it?

Peaking too early?

I've heard we're bringing out our manifesto late this cycle, so I'd expect a slight boost from that. Especially with our focus on crime and immigration.

[formerfifer]

FWIW, the results for Panelbase from the same period of the campaign in 2017 showed a Conservative lead of 17% with Cons @ 48% and Lab @31%.

[manchesterman]

I wish people would stop comparing this campaign with 2017. That was the worst Tory campaign ever and one of Labour's best ever. It's massively unlikely (even if Labour do have a good campaign and Johnson makes the odd gaffe) that that will even come close to being repeated this time

[myth11]

Nov 15, 2019 20:36:06 GMT manchesterman said:

I wish people would stop comparing this campaign with 2017. That was the worst Tory campaign ever and one of Labour's best ever. It's massively unlikely (even if Labour do have a good campaign and Johnson makes the odd gaffe) that that will even come close to being repeated this time

The lib dems and greens both have more people and money compared to 2017 and currently hurt labour double the amount that they hurt the cons.

[andrew111]

Nov 15, 2019 18:23:19 GMT johng said:

Postal voters will make up a significant number of voters (about 25%?) and they'll be voting soon.

26th Nov they will be given to Royal Mail in Kirklees, so basically still 2 weeks

[Jack]

[redtony]

Labour cutting the Tory lead by 3 points in one week Is not Bad. WAs it just due to the debate and the Manifesto launch? It also seems they are getting some Brexit votes.

[pepperminttea]

Nov 22, 2019 21:35:06 GMT redtony said:

Labour cutting the Tory lead by 3 points in one week Is not Bad. WAs it just due to the debate and the Manifesto launch? It also seems they are getting some Brexit votes.

It's almost certain the Tories won't win by over 10%, the country is far too divided for that. Labour voters that dislike Corbyn and co. are coming and will continue to come home. The question really is whether Labour can cut into their lead enough to force another hung parliament (yes I would be still utterly shocked if they won outright, though I accept there is a possibility that it could happen and I'm ruling nothing out). 

[andrewp]

Nov 22, 2019 23:43:48 GMT pepperminttea said:

Nov 22, 2019 21:35:06 GMT redtony said:

Labour cutting the Tory lead by 3 points in one week Is not Bad. WAs it just due to the debate and the Manifesto launch? It also seems they are getting some Brexit votes.

It's almost certain the Tories won't win by over 10%, the country is far too divided for that. Labour voters that dislike Corbyn and co. are coming and will continue to come home. The question really is whether Labour can cut into their lead enough to force another hung parliament (yes I would be still utterly shocked if they won outright, though I accept there is a possibility that it could happen and I'm ruling nothing out). 

The country is divided but the 40% Tory vote does look pretty solid, and for a lot of them, given that this is the last chance for a Brexit, minor campaign gaffes are not going to shift them, it would take something huge IMO. Labour are going to need to squeeze the Lib Dem and Green vote massively.

ive thought over the last few days, 10% is about the ideal lead for the Tories, if they got up to 15+ percent, you risk a situation where your supporters become less motivated and any waverers would get behind Labour.

The other interesting point is what percentage lead will give the Tories a majority? They got close with a 2.5% lead last time and would have got one with a 4/5% lead. My sense is that point won’t have shifted much, if anything the vote spread may favour the Tories more with The Labour vote being more solid in the safe seats in cities and less solid in the Hartlepools and Bolton’s.

[Jack]