Local council byelections 26 March

[AdminSTB]

I think the SNP are the most likely to benefit since Yes voters are likely to turn out again for the change of having a huge SNP contingent in Westminster. As you say, No voters are left with more-of-the-same regardless of whether they lean Tory or Labour, so it'll be little surprise if turnout in that camp collapses.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 27, 2015 16:29:36 GMT timmullen1 said:

Mar 27, 2015 15:58:59 GMT fourringcircus said:

I'm sure it might be best for all concerned if I go back into the shadows and leave you in ignorrance to discuss somewhere that you would fail to locate without a satnav. If by some miracle you got there, you'd stick out like a sore thumb and if you attempted dialogue with a local, you'd be utterly lost yet again. Mind and pack a 'lang spoon' if you ever venture to the ward in question.

OK, putting everything else aside, the swing in Glenrothes was 9.1% Labour to SNP since 2012 yes? And I don't think it's unfair to say SNP voters may well have been the most motivated to turn out at this point. According to the BBC's online swing calculator only one Labour seat falls to the SNP on a less than 10% swing (although I think Mike Smithson has it at four), so should you not be slightly concerned that, rather like Farage's million man army, the actual turnout doesn't seem to be matching your polling figures? Which leads to the other potential SNP difficulty that almost a quarter of those saying they intend to vote SNP say they have rarely, if ever, voted before, and history shows those voters are notoriously unreliable at actually breaking past habits.

This is true but I think the thing that Labour should be careful about is that the local by-election results seem to be falling more in line with the Scottish polling the closer to the election we get. The first by-elections after the referendum showed little sign of the SNP surge at all, these ones show some, although not to the extent of the national polls.

[timmullen1]

Mar 28, 2015 13:09:01 GMT Tony Otim said:

Mar 27, 2015 16:29:36 GMT timmullen1 said:

OK, putting everything else aside, the swing in Glenrothes was 9.1% Labour to SNP since 2012 yes? And I don't think it's unfair to say SNP voters may well have been the most motivated to turn out at this point. According to the BBC's online swing calculator only one Labour seat falls to the SNP on a less than 10% swing (although I think Mike Smithson has it at four), so should you not be slightly concerned that, rather like Farage's million man army, the actual turnout doesn't seem to be matching your polling figures? Which leads to the other potential SNP difficulty that almost a quarter of those saying they intend to vote SNP say they have rarely, if ever, voted before, and history shows those voters are notoriously unreliable at actually breaking past habits.

This is true but I think the thing that Labour should be careful about is that the local by-election results seem to be falling more in line with the Scottish polling the closer to the election we get. The first by-elections after the referendum showed little sign of the SNP surge at all, these ones show some, although not to the extent of the national polls.

Point well taken; the general thrust of my original comment was intended as "yes there is a surge towards the SNP, but I don't think it's at a total wipeout stage" (yet). I'm also (and I should have said this originally) hugely reluctant to transpose local election results into General Election forecasts (as evidenced by comments I've made elsewhere that in my City I think Labour will see a significant increase in their majorities in all three Westminster seats but get marmalised in the City Council elections on the same day).