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Post by marksenior on Mar 27, 2015 15:27:25 GMT
Why did the SNP do so well in this ward in 2007 and fall back so far in 2012 contrary to the behaviour of the SNP in most of Scotland ? Labour have about 10k dyed in the wool votes here. Anything else has as much to do with either the weather or who Raith Rovers are playing against . Perhaps you should ask an erudite LibDem or UKIPer resident in the ward. You'll find them all together in a phone box on the Markinch Road discussing how they were robbed. Your latest comment surpasses your previous ones in its idiocy . The ward electorate is around 13,000 so on a GE turnout that will be around 8,000 voters , Labour's 10,000 dyed in the wool votes leaves minus 2,000 for all other parties . |
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Post by marksenior on Mar 27, 2015 15:33:09 GMT
Looking at an actual election result from 2007 is not skimming over any poll at all . So from your solid on the ground experience - Why did the SNP do so relatively well in 2007 in the ward and unlike most of Scotland fall back in 2012 ? People should read my posts here, tbh  As previously stated, the SNP had generally poor results throughout Fife in 2012 (and Labour performed strongly in most areas) This was due to the unpopularity of the Nat-led council elected in 2007 (they started to run into trouble not long afterwards, and this was a factor in the "surprise" Labour hold in the 2008 Glenrothes by-election) These are good results for the SNP (actually Buckie is probably the best) but indicate they might not be quite in "clean sweep" territory. Which is a crumb of comfort right now. Yes I was aware of your posts on the subject but clearly our SNP poster relies on his incorrect local knowledge and has not got a clue . |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 27, 2015 15:37:11 GMT
Labour have about 10k dyed in the wool votes here. Anything else has as much to do with either the weather or who Raith Rovers are playing against . Perhaps you should ask an erudite LibDem or UKIPer resident in the ward. You'll find them all together in a phone box on the Markinch Road discussing how they were robbed. Your latest comment surpasses your previous ones in its idiocy . The ward electorate is around 13,000 so on a GE turnout that will be around 8,000 voters , Labour's 10,000 dyed in the wool votes leaves minus 2,000 for all other parties . The electorate for all the wards covering Glenrothes town is about 40,000. Fairly clear that this is what's being referred to here. |
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fourringcircus
Forum Regular
Toryism kills the humane spirit
Posts: 1,600 
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Post by fourringcircus on Mar 27, 2015 15:40:08 GMT
Thank-you EAL. Clear for all except the dwindling minority who go about pointing fingers and thinking everyone else is stupid.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 27, 2015 15:40:16 GMT
Well. You could have fooled us! Talking to a LibDem and a UKIPper from a Scottish perspective, you are obviously both easilly fooled in equal measure and you don't need me to add to your stupidity. Yet again, it appears that being 'SNP alligned' requires a thick skin here. If that's how you want it.....  I too am in Scotland and your stats did seem sketchy. |
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Post by marksenior on Mar 27, 2015 15:41:12 GMT
Your latest comment surpasses your previous ones in its idiocy . The ward electorate is around 13,000 so on a GE turnout that will be around 8,000 voters , Labour's 10,000 dyed in the wool votes leaves minus 2,000 for all other parties . The electorate for all the wards covering Glenrothes town is about 40,000. Fairly clear that this is what's being referred to here. All the comments previously have been related to this one ward not Glenrothes wide . |
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Post by marksenior on Mar 27, 2015 15:42:50 GMT
Thank-you EAL. Clear for all except the dwindling minority who go about pointing fingers and thinking everyone else is stupid. Certainly don't think everyone else is stupid , only those who make stupid comments !!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 27, 2015 15:43:30 GMT
It tends to make sense to interpret unclear comments in the manner in which they'd make most sense. It's perfectly possible to do that here and still think fourringcircus is less than entirely convincing.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 27, 2015 15:50:33 GMT
Send in the clowns.
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fourringcircus
Forum Regular
Toryism kills the humane spirit
Posts: 1,600
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Post by fourringcircus on Mar 27, 2015 15:58:59 GMT
I'm sure it might be best for all concerned if I go back into the shadows and leave you in ignorrance to discuss somewhere that you would fail to locate without a satnav. If by some miracle you got there, you'd stick out like a sore thumb and if you attempted dialogue with a local, you'd be utterly lost yet again. Mind and pack a 'lang spoon' if you ever venture to the ward in question.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 27, 2015 16:02:56 GMT
lmao
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cefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 906
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Post by cefin on Mar 27, 2015 16:09:17 GMT
The situation in Llantwit Major is this essentially
Llantwit is a conservative town, a couple of elections ago the former conservatives fell out with the then conservative leader of the council Jeff James and formed their own party Llantwit First.
The voters were quite happy to vote them in because they knew that the Llantwit First group were essentially Conservative.
However this term the Llantwit First party has thrown their lot in with the minority Labour administration in order to prop them up and gain a cabinet seat.
Which I'm sure has not gone down too well with the local Conservative leaning voters, a moot point that was pointed out to Llantwit First Leader Gwyn John at the time of him accepting the extra pay cabinet position with his new Labour chummies.
Perhaps we are seeing the prediction of chucking your lot in with labour in this area not being good for future voting prospects being borne out.
Oh and by the way the last local election in May 2012 were of course 6 months before the Labour inspired Rotherham fostering scandal in November of that year which kick started the so called UKIP surge. UKIP of course had a 100% candidate success rate at those elections in the Vale.
Lets hope that continues with more candidates in 2017.
Going by the great reaction from locals whilst we have been out leafleting in Llantwit for the General Election over the past two days it's a shame that we had no candidate at this time but already have two potential candidates prepared to stand in the immediate or May 2017 future.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 27, 2015 16:29:36 GMT
I'm sure it might be best for all concerned if I go back into the shadows and leave you in ignorrance to discuss somewhere that you would fail to locate without a satnav. If by some miracle you got there, you'd stick out like a sore thumb and if you attempted dialogue with a local, you'd be utterly lost yet again. Mind and pack a 'lang spoon' if you ever venture to the ward in question. OK, putting everything else aside, the swing in Glenrothes was 9.1% Labour to SNP since 2012 yes? And I don't think it's unfair to say SNP voters may well have been the most motivated to turn out at this point. According to the BBC's online swing calculator only one Labour seat falls to the SNP on a less than 10% swing (although I think Mike Smithson has it at four), so should you not be slightly concerned that, rather like Farage's million man army, the actual turnout doesn't seem to be matching your polling figures? Which leads to the other potential SNP difficulty that almost a quarter of those saying they intend to vote SNP say they have rarely, if ever, voted before, and history shows those voters are notoriously unreliable at actually breaking past habits. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 27, 2015 17:32:20 GMT
I'm sure it might be best for all concerned if I go back into the shadows and leave you in ignorrance to discuss somewhere that you would fail to locate without a satnav. If by some miracle you got there, you'd stick out like a sore thumb and if you attempted dialogue with a local, you'd be utterly lost yet again. Mind and pack a 'lang spoon' if you ever venture to the ward in question. OK, putting everything else aside, the swing in Glenrothes was 9.1% Labour to SNP since 2012 yes? And I don't think it's unfair to say SNP voters may well have been the most motivated to turn out at this point. According to the BBC's online swing calculator only one Labour seat falls to the SNP on a less than 10% swing (although I think Mike Smithson has it at four), so should you not be slightly concerned that, rather like Farage's million man army, the actual turnout doesn't seem to be matching your polling figures? Which leads to the other potential SNP difficulty that almost a quarter of those saying they intend to vote SNP say they have rarely, if ever, voted before, and history shows those voters are notoriously unreliable at actually breaking past habits. But on the other hand to be fair, the turnout will be much higher in a general election and the increase composed of people who otherwise don't bother to vote. |
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Post by Robert on Mar 27, 2015 17:42:34 GMT
Just back from dealing with other matters. Even at this late stage, may I apologise for having omitted one candidate's vote from the result I posted earlier. More haste, less speed I'm afraid.
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Post by afleitch on Mar 27, 2015 17:46:58 GMT
I'm sure it might be best for all concerned if I go back into the shadows and leave you in ignorrance to discuss somewhere that you would fail to locate without a satnav. If by some miracle you got there, you'd stick out like a sore thumb and if you attempted dialogue with a local, you'd be utterly lost yet again. Mind and pack a 'lang spoon' if you ever venture to the ward in question. OK, putting everything else aside, the swing in Glenrothes was 9.1% Labour to SNP since 2012 yes? And I don't think it's unfair to say SNP voters may well have been the most motivated to turn out at this point. According to the BBC's online swing calculator only one Labour seat falls to the SNP on a less than 10% swing (although I think Mike Smithson has it at four), so should you not be slightly concerned that, rather like Farage's million man army, the actual turnout doesn't seem to be matching your polling figures? Which leads to the other potential SNP difficulty that almost a quarter of those saying they intend to vote SNP say they have rarely, if ever, voted before, and history shows those voters are notoriously unreliable at actually breaking past habits. Well of course the swing is 'only' 9.1% since 2012, when the SNP pipped Labour nationally. But we are talking about a swing since 2010, when Labour were 22% ahead of them nationally. And given how rock solid Glenrothes was for Lindsay Roy, so much so it's one of the last seats to remain 'red' when you key in crazy SNP vote leads into forecast models. So the result is in line with that. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 27, 2015 18:28:22 GMT
OK, putting everything else aside, the swing in Glenrothes was 9.1% Labour to SNP since 2012 yes? And I don't think it's unfair to say SNP voters may well have been the most motivated to turn out at this point. According to the BBC's online swing calculator only one Labour seat falls to the SNP on a less than 10% swing (although I think Mike Smithson has it at four), so should you not be slightly concerned that, rather like Farage's million man army, the actual turnout doesn't seem to be matching your polling figures? Which leads to the other potential SNP difficulty that almost a quarter of those saying they intend to vote SNP say they have rarely, if ever, voted before, and history shows those voters are notoriously unreliable at actually breaking past habits. But on the other hand to be fair, the turnout will be much higher in a general election and the increase composed of people who otherwise don't bother to vote. That's slightly debatable; yes, turnout will be substantially higher at the GE, but my post was really questioning whether the SNP voters would have been more motivated than anyone else's voters yesterday, so formed a greater percentage of yesterday's electorate than, particularly Labour voters. As for the increase at the GE being "composed of people who otherwise don't bother to vote", well yes and no - yes, people who don't regularly vote in local elections, but my near 25% figure comprises people telling various pollsters that they never vote full stop. The great unknown is whether the SNP can buck the historical trend and get these people to vote for the first time (accepting that a chunk of them will be first-time voters anyway). The polls are also highlighting this by recording lower "certain to vote" and "may vote for another party" numbers in the SNP totals. To be clear, I'm not underplaying the threat to Labour, or the existence of a SNP surge, merely pointing out that the SNP face a challenge in turning those polling numbers into real votes, which they thus far don't appear to have succeeded in doing. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 27, 2015 18:42:01 GMT
OK, putting everything else aside, the swing in Glenrothes was 9.1% Labour to SNP since 2012 yes? And I don't think it's unfair to say SNP voters may well have been the most motivated to turn out at this point. According to the BBC's online swing calculator only one Labour seat falls to the SNP on a less than 10% swing (although I think Mike Smithson has it at four), so should you not be slightly concerned that, rather like Farage's million man army, the actual turnout doesn't seem to be matching your polling figures? Which leads to the other potential SNP difficulty that almost a quarter of those saying they intend to vote SNP say they have rarely, if ever, voted before, and history shows those voters are notoriously unreliable at actually breaking past habits. Well of course the swing is 'only' 9.1% since 2012, when the SNP pipped Labour nationally. But we are talking about a swing since 2010, when Labour were 22% ahead of them nationally. And given how rock solid Glenrothes was for Lindsay Roy, so much so it's one of the last seats to remain 'red' when you key in crazy SNP vote leads into forecast models. So the result is in line with that. Unless you've seen figures I haven't we don't know that the SNP were 22% ahead of Labour in that Ward in 2010. The fact that the SNP topped the first preferences in 2007 and took two out of the four seats, suggests there was strength for them here from way back. For all we know, in the absence of detailed figures, Lindsay Roy may have lost this Ward in 2010, and thus we can only judge on the figures available, which show a lower than needed swing to the SNP, and in increase (albeit minor) in Labour's vote from their 2007 nadir, neither of which neatly fit the "Labour wipeout" narrative. |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 27, 2015 19:21:25 GMT
Fife, Glenrothes West & Kinglassie - SNP gain from Labour| Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 2,539 | 55.3% | +12.8% | +7.2% | | Labour | 1,643 | 35.8% | -5.4% | +1.5% | | Conservative | 202 | 4.4% | +1.4% | -1.6% | | UKIP | 146 | 3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 61 | 1.3% | -0.3% | -4.4% | | Pensioner |
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| -5.2% |
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| -3.7% | -5.8% | | Independent |
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| -2.8% |
| Total votes
| 4,591 |
| 89% | 71% |
Swing Labour to SNP 9.1% since 2012 and 2.8% since 2007 Moray, Buckie - SNP gain from Independent| Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2014 B | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,485 | 59.5% | +23.5% | +14.4% | +26.9% | | Independent | 696 | 27.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 315 | 12.6% | +4.9% | +5.5% | +2.3% | | Labour |
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| -11.8% |
| -13.9% | | Previous Independents |
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| -44.6% | -47.9% | -43.2% | | Total votes | 2,496 |
| 134% | 99% | 68% |
Swing if meaningful Independent to SNP ~20% since 2014 by-election, ~17% since 2012 and ~21% since 2007 Vale Of Glamorgan, Llantwit Major - Conservative gain from Llantwit First| Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | since 2008 "top" | since 2008 "average" | | Conservative | 1,016 | 40.8% | +18.7% | +18.9% | +7.6% | +8.6% | | Llantwit First | 1,004 | 40.3% | -15.8% | -13.2% | -8.4% | -7.9% | | Labour | 378 | 15.2% | +0.5% | -0.7% | +3.9% | +3.8% | | Plaid Cymru | 95 | 3.8% | -3.5% | -5.0% | -3.1% | -4.5% | | Total votes | 2,493 |
| 68% | 82% | 64% | 77% |
Swing Llantwit First Independent to Conservative ~16% / 17% since 2012 and ~8% since 2008 Western Isles, Benbecula & North Uist - Independent gain from Labour who did not contest the seat| Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Independent | 437 | 59.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | SNP | 302 | 40.9% | +24.4% | from nowhere | | Previous Independents |
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| -64.6% | -65.1% | | Labour |
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| -18.9% | -34.9% | | Total votes | 739 |
| 69% | Row 6 column 5 |
Swing not meaningful West Lothian, Armadale & Blackridge - SNP hold - first preference votes | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,620 | 43.4% | +20.5% | +13.6% | | Labour | 1,009 | 27.1% | +9.5% | +3.4% | | Independent | 756 | 20.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 255 | 6.8% | +4.0% | +2.3% | | Green | 90 | 2.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independents |
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| -56.7% | -38.6% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.4% | | Scottish Socialist |
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| -1.0% | | Total votes | 3,730 |
| 83% | 66% |
Swing not meaningful
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Mar 27, 2015 20:03:49 GMT
A good week overall. A good question being asked about turnout though in these wards. The referendum was the process of asking the single biggest question in Scottish politics and people really believed it was important and either answer would have a huge effect on the rest of their lives. I don't think anyone would feel the same way about local government and so turnout is much as it was for the 2012 elections. And it seems to me that while Westminster and Holyrood voting patterns are converging, there is still a difference with local elections with local characters and different administrations defending different records in their respective areas.
I seriously doubt that turnout on 7 May will be that close to 85% again. Higher than the other parts of the UK is likely, but maybe more like 70%. There is the prospect of less change, a swapping of Milliband and Cameron's positions in the Commons is not as threatening as breaking up the Union or being shackled within it, depending on your point of view.
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