Local council byelections 26 March

[Tony Otim]

Mar 27, 2015 11:51:45 GMT marksenior said:

Western Isles result

Ind 437 SNP 302

59.1% vs 40.9%

[fourringcircus]

Mar 27, 2015 11:44:37 GMT marksenior said:

Statistics are clearly not your strong suit but certainly not as weak as your knowledge of the local area . Your earlier comment that the area is solidly Labour completely ignores the fact that in 2007 the SNP outpolled Labour in the ward by 2 to 1 .

I studied statistics and could give you a vast range of percentages to show whatever I wanted to.  I also lived in Glenrothes for a time, am married to a woman from Glenrothes and could get round the town in my sleep.  Since your strongest point appears to be incorrect personal assumptions, perhaps you should be looking inward before you hit the keyboard.  With 61 LibDem votes in this ward, I reckon my dog could have secured more than this, so perhaps that's the reason for the snide comments?

[marksenior]

Mar 27, 2015 12:44:44 GMT fourringcircus said:

Mar 27, 2015 11:44:37 GMT marksenior said:

Statistics are clearly not your strong suit but certainly not as weak as your knowledge of the local area . Your earlier comment that the area is solidly Labour completely ignores the fact that in 2007 the SNP outpolled Labour in the ward by 2 to 1 .

I studied statistics and could give you a vast range of percentages to show whatever I wanted to.  I also lived in Glenrothes for a time, am married to a woman from Glenrothes and could get round the town in my sleep.  Since your strongest point appears to be incorrect personal assumptions, perhaps you should be looking inward before you hit the keyboard.  With 61 LibDem votes in this ward, I reckon my dog could have secured more than this, so perhaps that's the reason for the snide comments?

I have no axe to grind viz a viz Labour v SNP in Glenrothes but I can look at the 2007 results for example in the ward and see that SNP outpolled Labour by 2 to 1 and clearly see that your statement that the area was solidly Labour was , is and shall always be gibberish . The fact that you say that you know the area like the back of your hand would therefore indicate that you know that you are talking gibberish but are doing so for partisan political reasons .

[afleitch]

Glenrothes is one of Labour's strongest seats in 2010 yet was strong SNP the following year.Glenrothes has been nothing but a strong Labour seat at Westminster. Based on 2010 guesstimates (using polling district data from 2007 rather than what Baxter does) the SNP are up 33% on how that ward would have polled in 2010 and Labour down 19%.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 27, 2015 12:55:32 GMT afleitch said:

Glenrothes is one of Labour's strongest seats in 2010 yet was strong SNP the following year.Glenrothes has been nothing but a strong Labour seat at Westminster. Based on 2010 guesstimates (using polling district data from 2007 rather than what Baxter does) the SNP are up 33% on how that ward would have polled in 2010 and Labour down 19%.

Differential turnout, completely different types of elections. Meaningless comparison.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The SNP have held Armadale and Blackridge - on transfers, not on first preferences.

[Robert Waller]

Mar 27, 2015 11:50:03 GMT Tony Otim said:

That looks like both a reasonably good turnout and a decent-ish Conservative result behind a very impressive SNP one. Looking like a very good day for the Nats at the moment.

Well, I did think that the SNP might do well in one of their strongest areas, as the Independent was billed as a (minor) 'local celebrity', having appeared in some cookery programme. - and celebrities do not usually succeed in trying to parlay whatever fame they have amassed into electoral politics.

I think there's only Armadale to come. I wonder if the time it is taking to announce the final result is an indicator that the SNP have done well there against an Independent as well.

[fourringcircus]

Mar 27, 2015 12:49:33 GMT marksenior said:

your statement that the area was solidly Labour was , is and shall always be gibberish . The fact that you say that you know the area like the back of your hand would therefore indicate that you know that you are talking gibberish but are doing so for partisan political reasons .

My 'gibberish' is solid, on the ground, experience.  Nothing partisan about it.  Unless you hail from the town (which I doubt), then with respect, it's your skimming over polls and commenting from afar on that basis alone which is (and always will be) ill-informed.

[marksenior]

Mar 27, 2015 13:55:26 GMT fourringcircus said:

Mar 27, 2015 12:49:33 GMT marksenior said:

your statement that the area was solidly Labour was , is and shall always be gibberish . The fact that you say that you know the area like the back of your hand would therefore indicate that you know that you are talking gibberish but are doing so for partisan political reasons .

My 'gibberish' is solid, on the ground, experience.  Nothing partisan about it.  Unless you hail from the town (which I doubt), then with respect, it's your skimming over polls and commenting from afar on that basis alone which is (and always will be) ill-informed.

Looking at an actual election result from 2007 is not skimming over any poll at all . So from your solid on the ground experience - Why did the SNP do so relatively well in 2007 in the ward and unlike most of Scotland fall back in 2012 ?

[carlton43]

Mar 27, 2015 12:44:44 GMT fourringcircus said:

Mar 27, 2015 11:44:37 GMT marksenior said:

Statistics are clearly not your strong suit but certainly not as weak as your knowledge of the local area . Your earlier comment that the area is solidly Labour completely ignores the fact that in 2007 the SNP outpolled Labour in the ward by 2 to 1 .

I studied statistics and could give you a vast range of percentages to show whatever I wanted to.  I also lived in Glenrothes for a time, am married to a woman from Glenrothes and could get round the town in my sleep.  Since your strongest point appears to be incorrect personal assumptions, perhaps you should be looking inward before you hit the keyboard.  With 61 LibDem votes in this ward, I reckon my dog could have secured more than this, so perhaps that's the reason for the snide comments?

Well. You could have fooled us!  

[Robert]

Result

SNP 1620
Lab 1009
Con 225
Grn 90

[Sibboleth]

What strikes me as interesting is that turnout in Scottish local byes are still low.

[fourringcircus]

Mar 27, 2015 14:14:12 GMT carlton43 said:

Well. You could have fooled us!

Talking to a LibDem and a UKIPper from a Scottish perspective, you are obviously both easilly fooled in equal measure and you don't need me to add to your stupidity.

Yet again, it appears that being 'SNP alligned' requires a thick skin here.  If that's how you want it.....

[Robert Waller]

Mar 27, 2015 14:37:58 GMT Robert said:

Result

SNP 1620
Lab 1009
Con 225
Grn 90

This has to be wrong - there is no Independent vote recorded - and it doesn't appear to be after transfers either.

[carlton43]

Mar 27, 2015 14:39:40 GMT Sibboleth said:

What strikes me as interesting is that turnout in Scottish local byes are still low.

Yes. If the Tartan Surge is hot to trot, why so few enthused to turn out?

[marksenior]

Mar 27, 2015 14:42:32 GMT fourringcircus said:

Mar 27, 2015 14:14:12 GMT carlton43 said:

Well. You could have fooled us!

Talking to a LibDem and a UKIPper from a Scottish perspective, you are obviously both easilly fooled in equal measure and you don't need me to add to your stupidity.

Yet again, it appears that being 'SNP alligned' requires a thick skin here.  If that's how you want it.....

It is nothing to do with you being SNP aligned , just the stupid comments you have made .

now to repeat the question .

With you extensive local knowledge of the area - Why did the SNP do so well in this ward in 2007 and fall back so far in 2012 contrary to the behaviour of the SNP in most of Scotland ?

[East Anglian Lefty]

Good SNP results, obviously, but at least the Labour vote share hasn't declined too precipitously. Difficult to draw too many conclusions based on low turnout, but suggests there might still be a way to mitigate the damage.

[marksenior]

Mar 27, 2015 14:48:27 GMT Robert Waller said:

Mar 27, 2015 14:37:58 GMT Robert said:

Result

SNP 1620
Lab 1009
Con 225
Grn 90

This has to be wrong - there is no Independent vote recorded - and it doesn't appear to be after transfers either.

First preference %s were

SNP 43.4
Lab 27.0
Ind 20.3
Con 6.8
Gre 2.4

[fourringcircus]

Mar 27, 2015 14:50:03 GMT marksenior said:

Why did the SNP do so well in this ward in 2007 and fall back so far in 2012 contrary to the behaviour of the SNP in most of Scotland ?    

Labour have about 10k dyed in the wool votes here.  Anything else has as much to do with either the weather or who Raith Rovers are playing against.  Perhaps you should ask an erudite LibDem or UKIPer resident in the ward.  You'll find them all together in a phone box on the Markinch Road discussing how they were robbed.

[The Bishop]

Mar 27, 2015 14:01:35 GMT marksenior said:

Mar 27, 2015 13:55:26 GMT fourringcircus said:

My 'gibberish' is solid, on the ground, experience.  Nothing partisan about it.  Unless you hail from the town (which I doubt), then with respect, it's your skimming over polls and commenting from afar on that basis alone which is (and always will be) ill-informed.

Looking at an actual election result from 2007 is not skimming over any poll at all . So from your solid on the ground experience - Why did the SNP do so relatively well in 2007 in the ward and unlike most of Scotland fall back in 2012 ?

People should read my posts here, tbh

As previously stated, the SNP had generally poor results throughout Fife in 2012 (and Labour performed strongly in most areas) This was due to the unpopularity of the Nat-led council elected in 2007 (they started to run into trouble not long afterwards, and this was a factor in the "surprise" Labour hold in the 2008 Glenrothes by-election)

These are good results for the SNP (actually Buckie is probably the best) but indicate they might not be quite in "clean sweep" territory. Which is a crumb of comfort right now.