maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 22, 2015 9:55:34 GMT
Brent LB - Kenton - Bhiku Patel (Conservative) died
2014: Con 1798/1796/1669, Lab 1139/1040/946, Grn 348, LD 221/153/125
2011by: Con 1063, Lab 907, Ind 185, LD 179, Grn 75
2010: Con 2805/2667/2333, Lab 2218/1832/1799, LD 1013/782/630, Grn 287/265/230
2006: Con 1944/1891/1828, Lab 1043/976/779, LD 526/483/369, Grn 276
2002: Con 1712/1668/1660, Lab 1042/946/850, LD 276/269/214
Michaela Lichten (Green Party)
Vincent Lo (Labour Party)
Michael Maurice (Conservative Party Candidate)
Bob Wharton (Liberal Democrats)
Camden LB - St Pancras & Somers Town - Peter Brayshaw (Labour) died
2014: Lab 2511/2488/2423, Grn 562/526/440, Con 368/351/295, LD 245/192/178
2010: Lab 2744/2650/2614, LD 1024/1011/927, Grn 738/467/422, Con 721/701/688 (the top Green vote getter was Natalie Bennett, current Green leader)
2006: Lab 1399/1264/1212, Respect 781, Grn 517/369/213, Con 440/429/422, LD 433/332/317, Ind 181
2002: Lab 960/902/865, LD 379/353/349, Con 263/259/249, Grn 219/124/116, SocA 211
Shahin Ahmed (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Zack Polanski (Liberal Democrats)
Tina Swasey (Green Party)
Paul Tomlinson (Labour Party)
Croydon LB - Selhurst - Gerry Ryan (Labour) died
2014: Lab 2086/2079/1996, Con 546/515/471, UKIP 504/396, Grn 341/269/267, LD 240, Ind 128, TUSC 88, Communist 77
2010: Lab 3355/3353/3324, Con 1407/1286/1240, LD 1150, Grn 516/515/515, Communist 93
2006: Lab 1652/1597/1452, Con 906/893/861, Grn 588, LD 570
2002: Lab 1685/1641/1535, Con 597/558/540, LD 367/335/332
Tirena Gunter (Conservative Party Candidate)
Tracey Hague (Green Party)
Geoff Morley (Liberal Democrats)
Annette Reid (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
David Wood (Labour Party Candidate)
Essex CC - Bocking - Gordon Helm (UKIP) died
2013: UKIP 1340, Con 1320, Lab 1226, Grn 126, LD 91
2009: Con 1814, Lab 997, UKIP 859, LD 572, BNP 318, Grn 299
2005: Lab 3231, Con 3010, LD 1362, Grn 449
Stephen Canning (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Michael Ford (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
John Malam (Green Party Candidate)
Peter Sale (Independent)
Lynn Watson (The Labour Party Candidate)
Lynn Watson is the former Labour councillor for that seat (and defeated candidate in 2009 and 2013).
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 22, 2015 11:49:29 GMT
So two really easy forecasts and Bocking which I remember being a level crossing on a branch line where I was unaccountably often held up by the infrequent trains. A gorgeous three-way marginal which anyone could win. It ought to be rock sold Conservative but might well revert to Labour as the two bald men scrap in the dust for the runner up comb? This is a test for UKIP to start proving it can hold seats and resist pre-GE squeezes. I rather fear it may fail those tests.
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maxque
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Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Feb 22, 2015 12:36:40 GMT
I don't see why Bocking should be rock Conservative. Conservatives are growing in Braintree and Bocking (which is pretty much the same town), but Labour is still well-alive there. At the district level, Labour still have 3 councillors on 7 in Bocking (since 2007, before they had 4/7).
The Conservative progress is clearer in Braintree town. In 2003, 7 Lab and 2 LD; in 2007, 5 Con, 3 Lab and 1 LD; in 2011 6 Con and 3 Lab, but by-elections made that 5 Lab, 4 Con now.
At the county level, Braintree is Conservative, but it was won by less than 100 votes over Labour. So, clearly Labour still have some ressources, there. There is no reason it should be rock conservative and Labour doesn't need a Con-UKIP split to win (and I suppose a significant part of local UKIP voters are former Labour voters who would vote Lbour if given only the choice between Labour and Conservatives).
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Post by froome on Feb 22, 2015 13:02:04 GMT
Bocking has a great claim to fame for organic gardeners. It was where the HDRA (Henry Doubleday Research Association), which is now known as Garden Organic, began, in the home of Lawrence D. Hills. I visited his 2 acre garden there about 1980 and spent a very pleasant hour wandering around undisturbed, admiring the enormous cabbages and generally soaking up inspiration. HDRA moved to their present headquarters in Ryton (Warwicks) some years later, and there is now a road called Doubleday Gardens built where his garden was.
He developed the Bocking strain of comfrey plants, which are one of the best natural fertilisers available for organic use, very easy to grow and rampant.
Quite surprised to see that Labour were so competitive there, but they did have a sizeable rural vote in parts of Essex until not that long ago.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 22, 2015 13:36:37 GMT
Bocking isn't rural. It's north Braintree.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 22, 2015 15:23:01 GMT
I don't see why Bocking should be rock Conservative. Conservatives are growing in Braintree and Bocking (which is pretty much the same town), but Labour is still well-alive there. At the district level, Labour still have 3 councillors on 7 in Bocking (since 2007, before they had 4/7). The Conservative progress is clearer in Braintree town. In 2003, 7 Lab and 2 LD; in 2007, 5 Con, 3 Lab and 1 LD; in 2011 6 Con and 3 Lab, but by-elections made that 5 Lab, 4 Con now. At the county level, Braintree is Conservative, but it was won by less than 100 votes over Labour. So, clearly Labour still have some ressources, there. There is no reason it should be rock conservative and Labour doesn't need a Con-UKIP split to win (and I suppose a significant part of local UKIP voters are former Labour voters who would vote Lbour if given only the choice between Labour and Conservatives). Sorry. I have no specialist insight. It just seemed to be stolid wealthy little rural communities that looked 'conservative' when I used to drive through it. The seat is termed Bocking so I assumed not too much of Braintree or anywhere large in it? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 22, 2015 17:27:29 GMT
You assume wrong. It's got everything north of the old A120 (before they built the bypass), much of which would primarily think of itself as Braintree.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 22, 2015 18:45:15 GMT
You assume wrong. It's got everything north of the old A120 (before they built the bypass), much of which would primarily think of itself as Braintree. Was it different say 30+ years ago? |
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Post by David Ashforth on Feb 22, 2015 19:07:09 GMT
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maxque
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Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Feb 22, 2015 21:31:12 GMT
You assume wrong. It's got everything north of the old A120 (before they built the bypass), much of which would primarily think of itself as Braintree. Was it different say 30+ years ago? Wikipedia has a quotation from a book of HG Wells from 1916 saying than they were divided by a single road and than both sides were "indistinguishable". If it wasn't for historical reasons, Bocking would be North Braintree since at least one century and people would think of Bocking as a neighbourhood. The boundary is literally going through Braintree Town Centre. It's not wealthy either, it's even quite poor for Essex. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 22, 2015 22:50:39 GMT
You assume wrong. It's got everything north of the old A120 (before they built the bypass), much of which would primarily think of itself as Braintree. Was it different say 30+ years ago? Before my time and I don't know Bocking as well as Braintree proper, so I couldn't say for sure. No doubt there's been a fair amount of new development in the past three decades, but the area covered by the division would still have been predominantly urban back then. You're sure it's Bocking you were thinking of? Braintree has been the end of the line for over half a century, and even when there were rail links to Bishop's Stortford, I don't think the line went through Bocking. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 22, 2015 22:53:29 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Feb 22, 2015 23:03:06 GMT
A gorgeous three-way marginal which anyone could win. It ought to be rock sold Conservative but might well revert to Labour as the two bald men scrap in the dust for the runner up comb?. Stephen Canning is not bald. He's only 22 and he's rather cute. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 22, 2015 23:27:50 GMT
Was it different say 30+ years ago? Before my time and I don't know Bocking as well as Braintree proper, so I couldn't say for sure. No doubt there's been a fair amount of new development in the past three decades, but the area covered by the division would still have been predominantly urban back then. You're sure it's Bocking you were thinking of? Braintree has been the end of the line for over half a century, and even when there were rail links to Bishop's Stortford, I don't think the line went through Bocking. It doesn't appear to have done.... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bishop's_Stortford-Braintree_Branch_Line EDIT: no idea why the link has gone funny like that. re-done it several times. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 22, 2015 23:32:31 GMT
It's because the automatic link builder assumes an apostrophe is the end of the link ('cos no-one would ever put an apostrophe in a URL).
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 22, 2015 23:59:26 GMT
Sorry chaps! Invalid input. You are quite correct, not Bocking, and wrong part of Essex. I really thought i was making sense at the time.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 4, 2015 2:09:44 GMT
Naughty doings from Labour in the Kenton by election, alleging that the Conservative candidate isn't voting for himself. They've apologised.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 4, 2015 21:11:37 GMT
Naughty doings from Labour in the Kenton by election, alleging that the Conservative candidate isn't voting for himself. They've apologised. Wouldn't that be his business? |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 4, 2015 21:17:41 GMT
Naughty doings from Labour in the Kenton by election, alleging that the Conservative candidate isn't voting for himself. They've apologised. Wouldn't that be his business? It wasn't him. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 4, 2015 22:31:26 GMT
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