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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 6, 2015 6:25:55 GMT
Croydon, Selhurst ward The most surprising bit is the turnout. In the 10 previous by-elections in Croydon over the last 20 years (i.e. the ones I stood in) the turnout was between 26% and 29% in six of them. There were two outliers on 42% and 15%, and two higher on 37% and 32%. Clearly the lack of a Loony candidate is just bad for democracy. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 6, 2015 10:20:36 GMT
Suggests around 10% of the electorate would turn out just to vote against John Loony
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 6, 2015 11:07:16 GMT
The overall picture from these by-elections is of some slippage in UKIP support, which matches what we are seeing in the polls and on the doorstep, but that the state of electoral opinion is otherwise not much changed from 2013 and 2014. Needless to say, that isn't good news for the Tories. IIRC UKIP's highest rating with the UKPR polling average was 16%. They're now on 15%. So they have slipped but only very slightly. ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2 |
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hempie
Green
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Post by hempie on Mar 6, 2015 11:31:50 GMT
My guess is that you didn't put much if anything into it. I'm assuming that that ward is part of Holborn and St.Pancras, so im guessing there have been a lot of green activity over the last few months. As at last Saturday the Greens had not even started to deliver an election leaflet in the ward, they were due to start delivering on Sunday. No idea if they actually did deliver the whole ward.Relying on the regular ward newsletter and getting posters round to people. I did see a Lib Dem team in the ward on Saturday, judging by their very poor result they did not achieve much either. We really do not do by elections! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 6, 2015 11:34:57 GMT
I'm assuming that that ward is part of Holborn and St.Pancras, so im guessing there have been a lot of green activity over the last few months. As at last Saturday the Greens had not even started to deliver an election leaflet in the ward, they were due to start delivering on Sunday. No idea if they actually did deliver the whole ward.Relying on the regular ward newsletter and getting posters round to people. I did see a Lib Dem team in the ward on Saturday, judging by their very poor result they did not achieve much either. We really do not do by elections! Yes but people thought this one might be a bit of an exception, given where it is  |
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hedgehog
Non-Aligned
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Post by hedgehog on Mar 6, 2015 11:51:49 GMT
As at last Saturday the Greens had not even started to deliver an election leaflet in the ward, they were due to start delivering on Sunday. No idea if they actually did deliver the whole ward.Relying on the regular ward newsletter and getting posters round to people. I did see a Lib Dem team in the ward on Saturday, judging by their very poor result they did not achieve much either. We really do not do by elections! Yes but people thought this one might be a bit of an exception, given where it is This is a target constituency though ! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 6, 2015 12:03:53 GMT
I'm assuming that that ward is part of Holborn and St.Pancras, so im guessing there have been a lot of green activity over the last few months. As at last Saturday the Greens had not even started to deliver an election leaflet in the ward, they were due to start delivering on Sunday. No idea if they actually did deliver the whole ward.Relying on the regular ward newsletter and getting posters round to people. I did see a Lib Dem team in the ward on Saturday, judging by their very poor result they did not achieve much either. We really do not do by elections! You did do the Marshalswick South by-election  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 6, 2015 19:38:19 GMT
Not a good result for us in Camden, was expecting a much stronger performance here. It's the Natalie Effect!  |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 7, 2015 16:03:58 GMT
Croydon, Selhurst ward David Wood (Lab) 1517 (71.5%) Tirena Gunter (Con) 246 (11.6%) Tracey Hague (Green) 148 (7.0%) Annette Reid (UKIP) 147 (6.9%) Geoff Morley (Lib Dem) 65 (3.1%) total 2123 spoilt 13 turnout 2136 (18.6%) electorate 11,485 The most fun bit was seeing Councillor Wood extrapolating from an 18% turnout to predict victory for Labour in Croydon Central in the general election. All local elections are limited in that respect - but having said that, its a strong Labour performance and the London polling looks good for Labour, so its probably not too much of an exaggeration |
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