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Post by ibfc on Dec 4, 2020 17:15:05 GMT
Elections are taking place to the 150 member Municipal Corporation of Greater Hyderabad on 4 December. GHMC has a population of around 7 million and is unique in view of the outsized impact it has on the politics of its state of Telangana. 20% of the assembly constituencies in Telangana fall under GHMC and it generates almost 80% of the revenue of the state. The current composition of the GHMC is: Telangana Rashtra Samiti (the party ruling the state) -99 AIMIM (a Muslim party that controls the old city of Hyderabad)-44 BJP- 4 INC- 2 Telugu Desam Party-1 This election has become important due to the win of the BJP in the Dubbaka by poll last month by which the BJP has become the main opposition in the state. BJP has really upped the ante in campaigning with many national leaders including Amit Shah campaigning. TRS and MIM are in a sort of informal alliance where the MIM is contesting only 50 odd Muslim dominated seats in the old city and supporting the TRS in the remaining divisions. The BJP is targeting upwards of 50 seats to ensure that the TRS and MIM would need an alliance to take control of the Corporation. This would allow the BJP to make a credible play for power in the 2023 state elections and will help the BJP gain further defectors from the Congress before 2023. Results are on 4th and exit polls should be available on 1st. Results are out for 149/150 seats in GHMC : TRS: 55(-44) BJP: 48(+44) AIMIM: 44(-) INC: 2(-) Results in one division is withheld as the winning margin is lesser than the number of votes ruled invalid for having been marked with a stamp other than the official sign of swastika. TRS is leading in the seat and should win it. These results set up the 2023 assembly polls to be a straight fight between the TRS and the BJP. The BJP should also benefit as the above numbers mean the TRS will need the support of the MIM to run GHMC and this will provoke a backlash in Hindus across the state who consider the MIM to be the party of the Nizam (Telangana is around 85% Hindu). |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796 
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India
Dec 21, 2020 5:03:36 GMT
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 21, 2020 5:03:36 GMT
Kerala has had local elections. The far-left LDF gained ~4%, while the INC-led UDF lost ~0%, but many seats. Weak increases for BJP (from 13.4% to 14.5%).
But i have no real idea, what was going on - contrary to another person here...
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Post by ibfc on Dec 21, 2020 6:23:47 GMT
Kerala has had local elections. The far-left LDF gained ~4%, while the INC-led UDF lost ~0%, but many seats. Weak increases for BJP (from 13.4% to 14.5%). But i have no real idea, what was going on - contrary to another person here... Apologies, been meaning to write a fairly detailed post on this as Kerala is my home state but been a bit busy. Will get to it this week. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 27, 2020 22:42:35 GMT
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Post by ibfc on Jan 3, 2021 8:26:12 GMT
Kerala has had local elections. The far-left LDF gained ~4%, while the INC-led UDF lost ~0%, but many seats. Weak increases for BJP (from 13.4% to 14.5%). But i have no real idea, what was going on - contrary to another person here... Apologies, been meaning to write a fairly detailed post on this as Kerala is my home state but been a bit busy. Will get to it this week. Kerala’s politics is unique in India due to two basic characteristics: 1) it is the only state in India which has two minority religions in very significant numbers (Muslims are around 25% and Christians around 18%). The Hindus comprise of roughly 15% forward castes and 40% backward and scheduled castes. 2) It is the only state in India where communism as an ideology has deep roots among the common man especially among the backward and scheduled caste Hindus. The Muslims in Kerala primarily back the Muslim League while the Christians back either the INC or the Kerala Congress, a splinter of the INC formed in 1965 which is widely considered to be the proxy of the Catholic Church (especially in the hilly regions of the state dominated by Christians cultivating cash crops. The town of Kottayam is considered to be their headquarters and has been called the Rome of India.) The Muslims, Christians and most of the upper castes together backed the INC led UDF and acted as a counterweight to the CPI(M) led LDF. The two coalitions are almost evenly matched and the state has had alternating governments since 1982. The BJP had been generally inconsequential in the state. The above scenario started changing post the 2014 LS elections as the upper caste Hindu base of the INC started moving in huge numbers to the BJP in line with the national trend of Hindus deserting the INC en masse. This caused a massive loss to the UDF in the 2016 assembly elections as the Left was by and large able to hold on to its backward caste Hindu base. This allowed the Left to sweep Hindu majority districts en masse and even gained in Muslim majority Malappuram district by supporting Muslim independents against the Muslim League. This should have resulted in establishing a period of Left hegemony in the state but for the intervention of the Sabarimala issue in 2018. This was basically a judgment of the Indian Supreme Court which stated that women of mensturating age should be permitted to visit the shrine. This was not allowed as the deity is considered to be celibate. The Left welcomed the verdict while there were massive protests across the state against it and the BJP and the INC both opposed it. This had an impact in the 2019 Parliamentary elections as the BJP managed to get both forward caste and backward caste Hindu votes in seats where they had strong candidates while the INC got back it’s forward caste votes in seats where the BJP had weak candidates. This coupled with overwhelming Muslim and Christian consolidation for the INC as the party best suited to block Modi at the national level led the UDF to win 19/20 seats in the state. The Left basically needs the BJP at around 17% vote share to sweep elections but in 2019, the BJP was either 20+ or below 15 (the sweet spot for the UDF). The INC however got very confident due to the parliamentary elections and started messing around with the Kerala Congress whose patriarch, K M Mani had died in 2019. They propped up his long time rival P J Joseph as his successor though the bulk of the Kerala Congress cadre as well as voters supported his son, Jose K Mani. The INC was aiming to kill off the KC and get its basically pro INC base back for itself. There was also a calculation that Jose K Mani had nowhere to go as the KC voters are traditionally the most conservative and anti Left in Kerala while at the same time not having a particular love for Modi. Jose Mani however took up the challenge and jumped ship to the LDF which was eager to try again to break into the Christian heartlands. The Church backed Jose wholeheartedly as it saw the attempt to cut the KC as an attempt to undercut church influence. The election period then saw a massively Islamophobic campaign in Christian social media attacking the UDF and the INC for being totally beholden to the Muslim League. The INC further messed things up by indulging in rampant factionalism and the election saw lots of INC rebels everywhere. The election thus saw a perfect storm for the UDF and the LDF won 11/14 of the district panchayats (all the areas in a district not covered by a municipality or a corporation), 5 out of 6 corporations and held the UDF to a tie in municipalities which are traditionally a UDF stronghold in the state. The only district panchayats the UDF won were the Muslim League stronghold of Malappuram (the district is 70% Muslim), Earnakulam and Wayanad on a coin toss (Rahul Gandhi represents Wayanad in the Parliament though his seat includes areas from Malappuram and Calicut district too). The BJP increased its vote share (the extent varies from source to source as these elections see a whole lot of independents including those supported by parties making it difficult to calculate votes properly) but didn’t make the expected breakthrough of taking control of the Trivandrum corporation. It increased its municipality numbers from 1 to 2 adding Pandalam, the town with which the deity at Sabarimala is associated with and expanded its majority in its stronghold of Palakkad. However, the BJP is increasingly facing the reality that any talk of BJP winning results in massive tactical voting by LDF or the UDF in favour of the other front. See this for more background on Christian Muslim issues which hurt the UDF : www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.news18.com/amp/news/politics/turkeys-hagia-sophia-and-other-key-factors-that-propelled-cpim-to-big-win-in-kerala-local-body-elections-3189404.html |
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Post by ibfc on Feb 19, 2021 11:04:14 GMT
Election results for urban municipal bodies in Punjab came out over the last couple of days. Punjab is the state that is the epicentre of farm protests rocking the country and as expected, the ruling INC swept the polls. However, the scale of the win has been unexpected with the INC sweeping 7/8 of municipal corporations (basically cities) and 87 of the 109 municipalities (basically towns). The INC is expected to gain power in around 100 of the municipalities. The opposition Akali Dal (BJP’s estranged ally), AAP and BJP gained 285, 62 and 49 wards respectively as opposed to the INC’s 1399. The Akalis and BJP both lost control of several bodies for the first time in decades as a part of this wipe out. Punjab faces Assembly elections in 2022 February and these elections were considered a precursor to the same.
While the INC is obviously in pole position to win the Assembly polls, one should be wary of reading too much for the reason that the Akalis and the AAP are both parties of rural Punjab while the INC’s main opposition in Punjabi towns (which are Hindu dominated as compared to the rural parts which are Sikh dominated) is the BJP which is currently in disarray in Punjab due to the protests. The party found it difficult to campaign in many areas. Punjab also has a tradition of the ruling party dominating local polls as well as by polls. However, it would be very surprising if the INC don’t retain power next time in the state.
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Post by ibfc on Feb 26, 2021 7:23:16 GMT
The six municipal corporations (cities) of Gujarat went for elections on Sunday and the results were declared yesterday. The results are as follows:
1) Ahmedabad (192 seats)- BJP 158, INC 25, AIMIM 7, Ind 1
2) Surat (120 seats)- BJP 93, AAP 27
3) Vadodara (Baroda) (76 seats)- BJP 69, INC 7
4) Rajkot (72 seats)- BJP 68, INC 4
5) Jamnagar (64 seats)- BJP 50, INC 11, BSP 3
6) Bhavnagar (52 seats)- BJP 44, INC 8
The results are an improvement for the BJP in terms of seats in all cities (especially Rajkot which was almost a dead heat last time) and in vote share in all cities except Surat. Surat was the epicentre of the Patidar caste agitation which rocked the state in 2016 and whose leader, Hardik Patel is now the working president of the state unit of the INC. however, there were some issues between Hardik and movement’s Surat leaders which led to all of them contesting on AAP tickets. The significance of the result is that these 6 cities account for around 40/182 seats in the Gujarat assembly and the BJP’s lock on them is the basis of their continuous wins in Gujarat since 1995.
Elections to towns and rural local bodies are scheduled for Sunday and the results should be out next week.
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Post by ibfc on Feb 27, 2021 6:25:25 GMT
Elections have been announced for the legislative assemblies of four states (Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala) and the union territory of Puducherry in April. The results will be out on 2 May. The elections will be held in 3 phases in Assam, 8 phases in West Bengal and in a single phase in the other three states/territory. This is the largest set of state elections in India as these states contribute 116/543 seats to the Lok Sabha and have a combined electorate of 180 million. The sizes of the assemblies are as follows:
1) Assam (126 seats)- Ruled by the BJP in coalition with the regionalist Asom Gana Parishad (a Party that is now a mere shadow of its former self). Erstwhile ally, the Bodo People’s Front has been dumped for two new allies in Bodoland, the United People’s Party Liberal and the Gana Suraksha Party. The main opposition INC will be fighting in alliance with the All India United Democratic Front, a party representing Bangladeshi Muslim migrants and the communist parties. This is almost going to be a repeat of the 2019 Lok Sabha where the INC and AIUDF had an alliance everywhere except the three Muslim majority parliamentary seats. The state is around 65% Hindu and 30% Muslim but the Muslim population is unevenly distributed and upper Assam is almost 90% Hindu.
2) West Bengal (294 seats)- Ruled by Mamta Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress since 2011. Main opposition in the Assembly is a coalition of the INC and the Left but the practical opposition is the BJP which won 19/42 seats in the 2019 Parliamentary elections. The BJP and Trinamool will be fighting alone while the INC Left alliance has tied up with a newly created Islamist group led by a Muslim religious leader. The state is around 70% Hindu and 27% Muslim.
3) Tamil Nadu (234 seats)- Ruled by the AIADMK which has somehow survived the chaos triggered after the death of its supreme leader Jayalalitha in 2016, AIADMK is in an alliance with the BJP, the PMK (representing the Vanniayar caste), actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK and the PT representing the Pallar community of scheduled castes. The opposition will be the DMK in alliance with the INC, the Communists, the VCK representing the Adi Dravidar community of scheduled castes, the MDMK (a DMK splinter), the Muslim League and a couple of smaller outfits. The same alliances had faced off in 2019 and the DMK had won by a margin of 38-1 and a vote share of 50%.
4) Kerala (140 seats)- Ruled by the Left Democratic Front comprising of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Communist Party of India, Kerala Congress (Mani) representing the Catholics farmers of central Kerala, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Loktantrik Janata Dal (a splinter of the JD(S), the Nationalist Congress Party, the Indian National League (a splinter of the Muslim League) and other splinters of the Kerala Congress. The opposition United Democratic Front comprises of the INC, the Muslim League, the Kerala Congress (Joseph), the Revolutionary Socialist Party and other splinters of the Kerala Congress. The BJP led NDA is a marginal player in the state having around 15% vote share and 1 seat in the state assembly and also has the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (a Party representing the backward Ezhava community) and yet more splinters of the Kerala Congress. The state is 55% Hindu, 26% Muslim and 18% Christian.
5) Puducherry (30 seats)- Puducherry is a really small union territory that comprises of four enclaves (Puducherry, Karaikal, Yanam and Mahe) which were the last four French outposts in Peninsular India. The vast majority of the population live in Puducherry itself which is in Northern Tamil Nadu while Karaikal is in central Tamil Nadu, Yanam in Andhra Pradesh and Mahe is in Kerala. Puducherry and Karaikal together contribute 28/30 seats in the assembly and therefore, the politics here are an extension of Tamil Nadu. The same alliances that fight in Tamil Nadu will fight here though the NDA here will by the AINRC ( a party formed by ex CM, N Rangaswamy) and the BJP which has got a lot of INC defectors recently. The INC leads the opposition here with the DMK playing second fiddle. The INC led the government here till this week when a spate of defections led to the government losing its majority.
Opinion polls should come out in March and I will keep updating here. Will be hoping to give more detailed backgrounds on the states but wouldn’t want to commit.
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Post by ibfc on Mar 4, 2021 7:00:01 GMT
The six municipal corporations (cities) of Gujarat went for elections on Sunday and the results were declared yesterday. The results are as follows: 1) Ahmedabad (192 seats)- BJP 158, INC 25, AIMIM 7, Ind 1 2) Surat (120 seats)- BJP 93, AAP 27 3) Vadodara (Baroda) (76 seats)- BJP 69, INC 7 4) Rajkot (72 seats)- BJP 68, INC 4 5) Jamnagar (64 seats)- BJP 50, INC 11, BSP 3 6) Bhavnagar (52 seats)- BJP 44, INC 8 The results are an improvement for the BJP in terms of seats in all cities (especially Rajkot which was almost a dead heat last time) and in vote share in all cities except Surat. Surat was the epicentre of the Patidar caste agitation which rocked the state in 2016 and whose leader, Hardik Patel is now the working president of the state unit of the INC. however, there were some issues between Hardik and movement’s Surat leaders which led to all of them contesting on AAP tickets. The significance of the result is that these 6 cities account for around 40/182 seats in the Gujarat assembly and the BJP’s lock on them is the basis of their continuous wins in Gujarat since 1995. Elections to towns and rural local bodies are scheduled for Sunday and the results should be out next week. The results of the polls to the remaining local bodies came out on Tuesday and are as follows: District Panchayats (31) BJP: 31 (+23) INC :0 (-23) Taluk Panchayats (231) BJP: 198 (+107) INC : 30(-110) Municipalities (81) BJP : 75 (+20) INC : 2 (-14) The results are fairly important because it shows that the BJP has pushed back INC attempts to make a comeback in rural Gujarat. Both 2015 local polls and more importantly, the assembly polls of 2017 saw huge INC gains in rural Gujarat and it was only the cities that saved the BJP in 2017. This also obviously punctures the narrative that all farmers in India are protesting against the government and shows that the bulk of the protestors are Jat Sikhs from Punjab and to an extent Hindu Jats from Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh. The bigger concern here for the INC is that the party's entire strategy has been based on not changing its approach while believing voters will finally get tired of the BJP. This is in my view, a reasonable strategy but this election shows that it may not be so straightforward. The BJP has ruled Gujarat since 1998 and the INC last won an election there in 1985. This gives a pro BJP account of the result: www.news18.com/amp/news/opinion/opinion-key-lessons-from-gujarat-local-body-elections-for-our-political-class-3491249.html?__twitter_impression=true |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 30, 2021 10:49:44 GMT
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Post by ibfc on Apr 30, 2021 12:51:02 GMT
Elections have been announced for the legislative assemblies of four states (Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala) and the union territory of Puducherry in April. The results will be out on 2 May. The elections will be held in 3 phases in Assam, 8 phases in West Bengal and in a single phase in the other three states/territory. This is the largest set of state elections in India as these states contribute 116/543 seats to the Lok Sabha and have a combined electorate of 180 million. The sizes of the assemblies are as follows: 1) Assam (126 seats)- Ruled by the BJP in coalition with the regionalist Asom Gana Parishad (a Party that is now a mere shadow of its former self). Erstwhile ally, the Bodo People’s Front has been dumped for two new allies in Bodoland, the United People’s Party Liberal and the Gana Suraksha Party. The main opposition INC will be fighting in alliance with the All India United Democratic Front, a party representing Bangladeshi Muslim migrants and the communist parties. This is almost going to be a repeat of the 2019 Lok Sabha where the INC and AIUDF had an alliance everywhere except the three Muslim majority parliamentary seats. The state is around 65% Hindu and 30% Muslim but the Muslim population is unevenly distributed and upper Assam is almost 90% Hindu. 2) West Bengal (294 seats)- Ruled by Mamta Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress since 2011. Main opposition in the Assembly is a coalition of the INC and the Left but the practical opposition is the BJP which won 19/42 seats in the 2019 Parliamentary elections. The BJP and Trinamool will be fighting alone while the INC Left alliance has tied up with a newly created Islamist group led by a Muslim religious leader. The state is around 70% Hindu and 27% Muslim. 3) Tamil Nadu (234 seats)- Ruled by the AIADMK which has somehow survived the chaos triggered after the death of its supreme leader Jayalalitha in 2016, AIADMK is in an alliance with the BJP, the PMK (representing the Vanniayar caste), actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK and the PT representing the Pallar community of scheduled castes. The opposition will be the DMK in alliance with the INC, the Communists, the VCK representing the Adi Dravidar community of scheduled castes, the MDMK (a DMK splinter), the Muslim League and a couple of smaller outfits. The same alliances had faced off in 2019 and the DMK had won by a margin of 38-1 and a vote share of 50%. 4) Kerala (140 seats)- Ruled by the Left Democratic Front comprising of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Communist Party of India, Kerala Congress (Mani) representing the Catholics farmers of central Kerala, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Loktantrik Janata Dal (a splinter of the JD(S), the Nationalist Congress Party, the Indian National League (a splinter of the Muslim League) and other splinters of the Kerala Congress. The opposition United Democratic Front comprises of the INC, the Muslim League, the Kerala Congress (Joseph), the Revolutionary Socialist Party and other splinters of the Kerala Congress. The BJP led NDA is a marginal player in the state having around 15% vote share and 1 seat in the state assembly and also has the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (a Party representing the backward Ezhava community) and yet more splinters of the Kerala Congress. The state is 55% Hindu, 26% Muslim and 18% Christian. 5) Puducherry (30 seats)- Puducherry is a really small union territory that comprises of four enclaves (Puducherry, Karaikal, Yanam and Mahe) which were the last four French outposts in Peninsular India. The vast majority of the population live in Puducherry itself which is in Northern Tamil Nadu while Karaikal is in central Tamil Nadu, Yanam in Andhra Pradesh and Mahe is in Kerala. Puducherry and Karaikal together contribute 28/30 seats in the assembly and therefore, the politics here are an extension of Tamil Nadu. The same alliances that fight in Tamil Nadu will fight here though the NDA here will by the AINRC ( a party formed by ex CM, N Rangaswamy) and the BJP which has got a lot of INC defectors recently. The INC leads the opposition here with the DMK playing second fiddle. The INC led the government here till this week when a spate of defections led to the government losing its majority. Opinion polls should come out in March and I will keep updating here. Will be hoping to give more detailed backgrounds on the states but wouldn’t want to commit. The results of these elections will be declared on Sunday. The exit polls came out yesterday and broadly point to a DMK (UPA) sweep in Tamil Nadu, a narrow but comfortable win for the NDA in Assam, comfortable wins for the Left Democratic Front in Kerala and a win for the NDA in Puducherry. With respect to West Bengal, polls range from a comfortable BJP win to a hung assembly with BJP having an edge to a comfortable Trinamool Congress win. The normally reliable Axis My India poll has given a range of predictions which captures all of the above scenarios in Bengal. Not listing down all the exit polls because there have been a lot of them and most of them are fairly random. FWIW, my personal opinion is in line with the exit poll consensus on Assam, Puducherry and TN and I expect a comfortable win for the BJP in Bengal. However, in Kerala I think the consensus is wrong and the INC led United Democratic Front should eke out a Narrow majority. The best case for the LDF IMO seems to be a hung assembly. Both the fronts have a large number of small parties, so a hung assembly can turn out to be quite entertaining. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 30, 2021 14:03:19 GMT
However, in Kerala I think the consensus is wrong and the INC led United Democratic Front should eke out a Narrow majority. The best case for the LDF IMO seems to be a hung assembly. Both the fronts have a large number of small parties, so a hung assembly can turn out to be quite entertaining. Ah, interesting. A hung parliament would be fun: UDF relying on NDA would split UDF and a GrandCoalition would be the dream of BJP... |
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Post by ibfc on Apr 30, 2021 16:52:11 GMT
However, in Kerala I think the consensus is wrong and the INC led United Democratic Front should eke out a Narrow majority. The best case for the LDF IMO seems to be a hung assembly. Both the fronts have a large number of small parties, so a hung assembly can turn out to be quite entertaining. Ah, interesting. A hung parliament would be fun: UDF relying on NDA would split UDF and a GrandCoalition would be the dream of BJP... The former is impossible so it'll either have to be smaller parties jumping ship or a grand coalition. |
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India
May 2, 2021 4:51:22 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on May 2, 2021 4:51:22 GMT
Very early in the count but looks neck and neck in WB. Easy BJP win in Assam, easy (but not the blowout of the LS polls) DMK win in TN. And much easier than expected Commie win in Kerala.
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India
May 2, 2021 7:13:25 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on May 2, 2021 7:13:25 GMT
Mamata is running away with it now.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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India
May 2, 2021 11:01:14 GMT
Post by Georg Ebner on May 2, 2021 11:01:14 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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India
May 2, 2021 11:10:13 GMT
Post by Georg Ebner on May 2, 2021 11:10:13 GMT
While BJP managed to even expand its majority in Assam, in Puducherry it seems to be surprisingly close.
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India
May 2, 2021 20:05:24 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on May 2, 2021 20:05:24 GMT
While BJP managed to even expand its majority in Assam, in Puducherry it seems to be surprisingly close. They won a majority though. Several successful independents only one of whom (in Yanam) appears to have been the candidate of one of the alliances (DMK+). AIADMK somehow managed to get locked out despite being a part of the winning alliance. |
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India
May 2, 2021 20:06:10 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on May 2, 2021 20:06:10 GMT
Mamata is running away with it now. Although not for her own seat, which she - barely - lost... |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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May 2, 2021 22:34:30 GMT
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Post by mboy on May 2, 2021 22:34:30 GMT
This seems extremely unwise:
But given that the government's plan seems to have been "pretend nothing is happening so as not to affect voting", one could argue that the strategy has been very effective...
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