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Post by ibfc on May 3, 2021 2:43:49 GMT
While BJP managed to even expand its majority in Assam, in Puducherry it seems to be surprisingly close. They won a majority though. Several successful independents only one of whom (in Yanam) appears to have been the candidate of one of the alliances (DMK+). AIADMK somehow managed to get locked out despite being a part of the winning alliance. The independents were propped up by the N R Congress on seats it had officially allocated to AIADMK as a part of the alliance. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 3, 2021 10:13:37 GMT
Only the SE - TamilNadu (incl. Puducherry) - changed:  |
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Post by ibfc on Oct 3, 2021 19:12:22 GMT
Elections (at the state level) finally returned to India on 30 September after a five month long hiatus due to the second wave of the pandemic. Two sets of elections happened on Thursday: 1) re-elections for two seats in the West Bengal assembly which were postponed as candidates died due to Covid after the close of nomination; and 2) a by-poll each to the West Bengal Assembly and the Odisha Assembly.
Starting with the by-polls, the most crucial was the Bhabanipur bypoll in the Kolkata suburbs triggered by the reisgnation of Shobandeb Chattopadhyay of the Trinamool Congress to allow CM Mamta Banerjee to contest and become an MLA as she had lost her own seat in May. Bhabanipur was traditionally Mamta's seat and she had vacated it only for a grudge match with erstwhile lieutenant Suvendu Adhikari in the latter's home patch of Nandigram; a grudge match she lost while her party swept the state. As expected, Mamata easily won the seat. The results were as follows:
AITC: 71.9% (+13.5 from May)
BJP: 22.3% (-13.3 from May)
CPM: 3.6 (-.5 from May; INC had contested for the alliance in May)
The second by-poll was Pipli (Puri District in Odisha caused by the death of the ruling Biju Janata Dal MLA,Pradeep Maharathy who had held the seat continuously since 1985 except for the 1995-2000 period. The BJD fielded his son Rudra Maharathy who held on to the seat. The figures are below:
BJD: 53.6% (+2.7)
BJP: 42% (+0.2)
INC: 2.4% (-3.3)
The two re-polls were in the seats of Jangipur and Shamsergunj both of which are in the Murshidabad district of West Bengal. The district is around 70% Muslim and was allocated to India during partition only to serve as a link between North and South Bengal and has been an INC stronghold since then. Jangipur was the Lok Sabha seat of INC stalwart and former President of India, Pranab Mukherjee and his son represented the seat till 2019. Congress floor leader in the Lok Sabha, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury represents Barhampur constituency from the district. However, the seat along with the whole of Muslim dominated Central Bengal swung sharply to the AITC in May due to tactical voting by Muslims to stop the BJP. Demographically, Jangipur is around 50% Muslim and 50% Hindu while Shamergunj is 80% Muslim.The AITC won both the seats but the surprising fight shown by the INC in Shamergunj shows that there may still be some fight left in the party here. Interestingly, the INC candidate announced that he was joining the AITC on the day of the election. Anyway the results are as follows:
Jangipur
AITC 68.9% (+18.7 from May 2019 Lok Sabha))
BJP: 22.2% (-12.1)
RSP 4.6 (-15.5 from the combined INC + CPM vote in May 2019)
Shamsergunj
AITC 51.1% (+13.6)
INC 37.1 (-4.9)
BJP 5.8 (-10.9)
Obviously these are good results for the AITC but considering the huge ruling party advantage in money and muscle in by-polls in Bengal, neither the BJP nor the INC would be too disappointed. For the BJP,it shows they are now clearly the second party in the state which was something that was being questioned following the post poll violence in the state in May and the BJP leadership was accused of not protecting its cadre. I mentioned about the INC above but it is not sure if Muslims will divide in a Lok Sabha election.
As for Odisha, again considering the money and muscle power advantage of the BJD, the BJP did quite well to maintain its vote share and I would say the party should pick up Pipli in the next assembly assuming a stable national scenario.
There are a lot of by-polls (both for the Lok Sabha and state assemblies) scheduled for end October and some of them are quite interesting/crucial. Will try to give a preview. As an aside, the money and muscle advantage in by-polls varies from state and is generally the most in Eastern and Southern India (except Kerala) and the least in Northern India. This primarily comes from the fact that the Election Commission does not take over the administration during by-polls unlike normal polls. This generally gives the ruling party a free run. This factor needs to be generally kept in mind while analysing by-polls (and local body polls) apart from of course differential turnout.
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Georg Ebner
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India
Nov 2, 2021 11:08:15 GMT
Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 2, 2021 11:08:15 GMT
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Post by ibfc on Nov 2, 2021 11:41:53 GMT
There’s also a loss and a gain in Karnataka and 2 gains and one loss in Madhya Pradesh. The pattern is basically local factors. Almost all results on expected lines. I am sorry but I’ll get to this soon.
P.S: The winning Shiv Sena candidate in Dadra is the wife of the deceased MP. He was found dead in Mumbai a few months back and both the Sena and his family have said that he was bumped off by the BJP.
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The Bishop
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Nov 2, 2021 13:32:41 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Nov 2, 2021 13:32:41 GMT
TIL that Shiv Sena is still a thing  |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 2, 2021 14:03:25 GMT
The Chief Minister of India’s richest state leads the party  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 22, 2021 13:21:17 GMT
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maxque
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Dec 24, 2021 17:26:11 GMT
Post by maxque on Dec 24, 2021 17:26:11 GMT
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Post by seanryanj on Dec 24, 2021 17:42:23 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Dec 27, 2021 15:07:28 GMT
ibfc likes this
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 27, 2021 15:07:28 GMT
Chandigarh: Unfortunately the number of seats was increased (and no key/maps found by me), making any comparison 2016 & 2021 impossible:  |
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Post by ibfc on Dec 27, 2021 15:46:30 GMT
Chandigarh: Unfortunately the number of seats was increased (and no key/maps found by me), making any comparison 2016 & 2021 impossible: The wards are different as delimitation was conducted in the city after adding 13 villages to the limits of the Corporation. For instance, the new Ward 1 is full of ex villages while most of old Ward 1 is new Ward 2. The real importance of these results though lie in what they indicate for Punjab elections due in February. The chances of an AAP majority have drastically increased post these results. |
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Georg Ebner
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India
Dec 30, 2021 23:37:49 GMT
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 30, 2021 23:37:49 GMT
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Post by ibfc on Dec 31, 2021 4:40:08 GMT
The detailed results that were declared yesterday can be found at this handle :
Elections were held in various urban areas around the state where elections had previously been delayed due to delimitation and reservation issues. Urban areas are grouped into corporations, municipalities and town councils based on their overall population.
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Post by ibfc on Jan 1, 2022 2:50:37 GMT
Thank you and wish you the same. |
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Post by ibfc on Jan 9, 2022 3:40:56 GMT
Elections have been announced for the five state assemblies of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. Goa, Punjab and Uttarakhand will vote on February 14 while Manipur votes in two phases on 27 February and 3 March. Uttar Pradesh votes in seven phases from February 10 to March 7. All results will be declared on March 10.
The Congress currently rules Punjab while the BJP rules the other four.
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Post by ibfc on Jan 18, 2022 8:28:19 GMT
The Aam Aadmi Party has announced Bhagwant Mann as its CM candidate for Punjab with this video:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 18, 2022 15:06:01 GMT
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Post by ibfc on Feb 18, 2022 18:34:29 GMT
I should admit that the work was all Georg’s and my role was limited to downloading excel sheets off the ECI website and mailing them to Georg. For some reason, the past results section of the website is blocked to non Indian visitors. |
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Georg Ebner
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Feb 28, 2022 0:03:04 GMT
ibfc likes this
Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 28, 2022 0:03:04 GMT
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