India

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 9, 2024 11:49:47 GMT ibfc said:

Oct 9, 2024 10:44:36 GMT The Bishop said:

The result in Haryana is all the more remarkable because the early returns there did indeed point to a crushing BJP defeat. What on earth happened?

The first hour of counting is always postal ballots which are cast by government officials on election duty. INC actually led in 74 of the 90 seats in postal ballots. Government officials have been backing INC across the country due to a demand for rollback of pension reforms introduced in the early 2000s. Normal votes are only counted by around 0900 IST and the BJP started taking the lead as soon as this started. In general, following the first hour of counting in India is a waste of time. For context a seat having 200,000 voters would have around 1000 postal ballots or so.

Ah, insightful - thanks!
But after having watched several elections i can't remember such a huge bias. Certainly not in the LS-election. (Did the ECI perhaps follow the demand of INDIA to count them not at the beginning?) And weren't the PV once more in favour of BJP?

[ibfc]

Oct 9, 2024 13:51:43 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 9, 2024 11:49:47 GMT ibfc said:

The first hour of counting is always postal ballots which are cast by government officials on election duty. INC actually led in 74 of the 90 seats in postal ballots. Government officials have been backing INC across the country due to a demand for rollback of pension reforms introduced in the early 2000s. Normal votes are only counted by around 0900 IST and the BJP started taking the lead as soon as this started. In general, following the first hour of counting in India is a waste of time. For context a seat having 200,000 voters would have around 1000 postal ballots or so.

Ah, insightful - thanks!
But after having watched several elections i can't remember such a huge bias. Certainly not in the LS-election. (Did the ECI perhaps follow the demand of INDIA to count them not at the beginning?) And weren't the PV once more in favour of BJP?

Yes historically postal votes have helped BJP but that has changed post the pension farcas. Also government employees in Haryana are disproportionately Jats as past CMs have consistently favoured the community. The biggest poll plank of the BJP for the last 10 years has been transparent recruitment to government jobs which helps smaller communities and it was the only reason the party was not destroyed after 10 years of mediocre rule. Nobody else wanted Jat rule back.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 9, 2024 17:53:02 GMT ibfc said:

Oct 9, 2024 13:51:43 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Ah, insightful - thanks!
But after having watched several elections i can't remember such a huge bias. Certainly not in the LS-election. (Did the ECI perhaps follow the demand of INDIA to count them not at the beginning?) And weren't the PV once more in favour of BJP?

Yes historically postal votes have helped BJP but that has changed post the pension farcas. Also government employees in Haryana are disproportionately Jats as past CMs have consistently favoured the community. The biggest poll plank of the BJP for the last 10 years has been transparent recruitment to government jobs which helps smaller communities and it was the only reason the party was not destroyed after 10 years of mediocre rule. Nobody else wanted Jat rule back.

Fascinating inSights You wrote here en passant! Read/heard noThing about that in India's English media, let alone those here in the West. Just like all the media"pundits" were surprised by the outCome, while You real inSiders weren't.

[Georg Ebner]

Maharashtra & Jharkhand are going to be counted in 2 days - but the exitPolls are already out.

For both states they are mixed, but in the case of Jharkhand they surely overpolled the ruling INDIA-coalition and NDA should be comfortably ahead.
Perhaps the same applies also to Maharashtra (just vice versa), but that's less certain.

Contrary to that - which is little more than gossip - ibfc could provide us real inSights, of course.

[Georg Ebner]

...and interestingly Maharashtra was not only the expensivest regional election, but received surprisingly also the highest turnOut in 28 years.
So either a Modi-wave? Or people being upset by the BJP splitting SHS and NCP?

[rcronald]

Nov 21, 2024 11:47:43 GMT Georg Ebner said:

...and interestingly Maharashtra was not only the expensivest regional election, but received surprisingly also the highest turnOut in 28 years.
So either a Modi-wave? Or people being upset by the BJP splitting SHS and NCP?

I wouldn’t be surprised if nationalist voters who didn’t turn out in the GE because of complacency came out in droves this time.

[ibfc]

Expect an NDA landslide in Maharashtra and a very tight election in Jharkhand.

[rcronald]

Nov 21, 2024 13:47:09 GMT ibfc said:

Expect an NDA landslide in Maharashtra and a very tight election in Jharkhand.

Imprison the entire corrupt Soren Clan if the NDA wins in Jharkhand.