India

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 8:20:42 GMT Georg Ebner said:

May 16, 2024 11:58:49 GMT Georg Ebner said:

INDIA campaigned on Modi intending to abolish the quotas/reservations by changing the constitution. What was immediately ruled out by BJP, but brought them into defensive.
Though the real reason for an underPerFormance would be "the economy, stupid": By BJP being branded as the party of the urban rich a la 2004. Their image is better than 20 years ago, but there is a certain clandestine (i.e. publicly unarticulated) disSatisFaction of many with the present economical situation.

2 maps, which are helpful to understand India's present economical&social situation - on the one hand:



...on the other hand: InCome 2019 vs. 2024:

I can only imagine what the poverty rate in Bihar was before 2005 (when the Yadavs were kicked out)..

[iain]

There are reports that Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) and serial defector Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) are in conversations with Sharad Pawar, on behalf of the INDIA Alliance ...

I doubt it will come to much, but nervy times for the BJP.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 4, 2024 8:53:14 GMT iain said:

There are reports that Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) and serial defector Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) are in conversations with Sharad Pawar, on behalf of the INDIA Alliance ...

I doubt it will come to much, but nervy times for the BJP.

With INC being still at just 100 seats, that would be quite a chaosCoalition a la JD - its goal would not be more than getting rid of Modi.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 9:18:53 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 4, 2024 8:53:14 GMT iain said:

There are reports that Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) and serial defector Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) are in conversations with Sharad Pawar, on behalf of the INDIA Alliance ...

I doubt it will come to much, but nervy times for the BJP.

With INC being still at just 100 seats, that would be quite a chaosCoalition a la JD - its goal would not be more than getting rid of Modi.

I.N.D.I.A+JD(U)+TDP is still not enough for a majority.

Edit: decent chance that the NDA will also remain bigger.

[rcronald]

If I’m the BJP, I’m inviting the BSP into my alliance in UP ASAP.

I’d also try to negotiate an alliance of equals with AIADMK in TN like they have with the JDU in Bihar (if they disagree, just run separately, you have nothing to lose in TN).

[iain]

Jun 4, 2024 9:18:53 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 4, 2024 8:53:14 GMT iain said:

There are reports that Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) and serial defector Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) are in conversations with Sharad Pawar, on behalf of the INDIA Alliance ...

I doubt it will come to much, but nervy times for the BJP.

With INC being still at just 100 seats, that would be quite a chaosCoalition a la JD - its goal would not be more than getting rid of Modi.

Oh for sure, it would be totally nuts. But it is indicative of the new reality the BJP finds itself in, relying on very unreliable partners (JD(U) alone has 14 seats).

The NDA has been bouncing around between 290-300 seats (majority 272), with the BJP around 240.

[matureleft]

Our more expert posters may well put me right. India has a reputation for pretty transactional politics. This result suggests we will see some growth in that. Whatever one might think of Modi he did seek to address some of the problems holding back business activity which had been largely parked by earlier governments (although Manmohan Singh had a try at some bits). We may see some hesitancy/trade offs in that momentum.

A strong Indian economy is good not just for India.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 10:01:53 GMT iain said:

Jun 4, 2024 9:18:53 GMT Georg Ebner said:

With INC being still at just 100 seats, that would be quite a chaosCoalition a la JD - its goal would not be more than getting rid of Modi.

Oh for sure, it would be totally nuts. But it is indicative of the new reality the BJP finds itself in, relying on very unreliable partners (JD(U) alone has 14 seats).

The NDA has been bouncing around between 290-300 seats (majority 272), with the BJP around 240.

Naidu, and Kumar are pretty bribable, and looking the other way should get you RS votes from Jagan (corruption in human form) Reddy.

[cogload]

Jun 4, 2024 5:58:23 GMT cogload said:

Exit polls were trash then?

Yup.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 10:41:38 GMT cogload said:

Jun 4, 2024 5:58:23 GMT cogload said:

Exit polls were trash then?

Yup.

If you look at the exit polls state by state, you’ll see that they were wrong in roughly 3-4 states, it’s just that they are some of the largest and the misses were massive.

[rcronald]

In Rajasthan, the BJP suffered major losses because they were viewed as too pro Rajput by Jats.
In Western UP, the BJP suffered major loses because they were viewed as too pro Jat by Rajputs….

[rcronald]

Suresh Gopi has officially won in Thrissur by roughly 75K votes, becoming the first BJP candidate to win a Lok Sabha constituency in Kerala’s history.

[iain]

Amusingly it looks as though the BJP have lost Faizabad, home of Modi's flagship Ayodhya Ram Mandir temple.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 14:14:07 GMT iain said:

Amusingly it looks as though the BJP have lost Faizabad, home of Modi's flagship Ayodhya Ram Mandir temple.

the UP BJP needs to clean house. The fact that their regional leaders inside the state didn’t notice the collapse (more precisely, the big shift of Mayawati voters to the SP) is one of the most extreme example of political malpractice that I’ve seen outside of the Anglo world in a long, long time.

[rcronald]

Looks like Naidu has decided to stick with the NDA, so Nitish Kumar can’t really switch alliances again.

[Georg Ebner]

ComParison of vote-% (with having still no certainty, how final the numbers are):

NDA decreased by 3%, UPA->INDIA increased by 11.5% or 5%, if we take correctly MGB (the 2019-alliance of BSP+SP in UttarPradesh) into acCount. Thus NDA ended this time by votes only minimally ahead.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 14:34:20 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 4, 2024 14:14:07 GMT iain said:

Amusingly it looks as though the BJP have lost Faizabad, home of Modi's flagship Ayodhya Ram Mandir temple.

the UP BJP needs to clean house. The fact that their regional leaders inside the state didn’t notice the collapse (more precisely, the big shift of Mayawati voters to the SP) is one of the most extreme example of political malpractice that I’ve seen outside of the Anglo world in a long, long time.

The BJP basically has a decent excuse for every state where it didn’t do well, except for UP.

•The Rajasthan BJP is in the middle of a civil war.
•The Haryana BJP noticed that they were in deep trouble and changed their leadership just before the election.
•Bengali voters are threatened with violence in much of the state if they vote against the AITC.
•The BJP was screwed in heavily Christian NE India the moment the Manipur conflict broke out.
•Maharashtra is just a mess.

[ibfc]

Jun 4, 2024 11:53:32 GMT rcronald said:

In Rajasthan, the BJP suffered major losses because they were viewed as too pro Rajput by Jats.
In Western UP, the BJP suffered major loses because they were viewed as too pro Jat by Rajputs….

Forget that, the former happened in Northern Rajasthan and the latter in Western Rajasthan. Also I have a feeling that both things happened simultaneously in certain seats in UP like Muzaffarnagar.

[ibfc]

Jun 4, 2024 9:43:29 GMT rcronald said:

If I’m the BJP, I’m inviting the BSP into my alliance in UP ASAP.

I’d also try to negotiate an alliance of equals with AIADMK in TN like they have with the JDU in Bihar (if they disagree, just run separately, you have nothing to lose in TN).

The BSP vote is really not transferable to the BJP.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 15:44:51 GMT ibfc said:

Jun 4, 2024 11:53:32 GMT rcronald said:

In Rajasthan, the BJP suffered major losses because they were viewed as too pro Rajput by Jats.
In Western UP, the BJP suffered major loses because they were viewed as too pro Jat by Rajputs….

Forget that, the former happened in Northern Rajasthan and the latter in Western Rajasthan. Also I have a feeling that both things happened simultaneously in certain seats in UP like Muzaffarnagar.

I wonder how differently the election would turned out if Vasundhara Raje didn’t decide to burn the party to the ground because she was bitter over something.