India

[Georg Ebner]

IndiaToday reports, that BJP lost 38 SC-seats. INDIA plus 56 there and in OBC-ones.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 4, 2024 5:35:00 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 4, 2024 5:32:33 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Where do You see it?
Hilariously they don't show, how much is counted.

all of the headlines (online) suggest ‘early trends’ , and TimesNow have some actual numbers where it seems like the states where it’s not actually early are MP,Delhi, and Kerala.

Can You post the link, please - i can not and not find that.

[cogload]

Exit polls were trash then?

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 5:50:19 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 4, 2024 5:35:00 GMT rcronald said:

all of the headlines (online) suggest ‘early trends’ , and TimesNow have some actual numbers where it seems like the states where it’s not actually early are MP,Delhi, and Kerala.

Can You post the link, please - i can not and not find that.

Key Candidates section: www.timesnownews.com/elections/karnataka-lok-sabha-election-results

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 5:58:23 GMT cogload said:

Exit polls were trash then?

1.Early results
2.If the trends continue, trash exit polls in UP,WB,MH,TN, but pretty decent in most other states.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 4, 2024 6:00:18 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 4, 2024 5:50:19 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Can You post the link, please - i can not and not find that.

Key Candidates section: www.timesnownews.com/elections/karnataka-lok-sabha-election-results

The winner's % is shown here, not the % counted:



After hours i heard at IndiaToday at least, that "less than half" is done.

[Deleted]

WOW Modi cracked the Tamil Nadu and Kerala blue wall

[dizz]

Jun 4, 2024 6:35:30 GMT @weld said:

WOW Modi cracked the Tamil Nadu and Kerala blue wall

They look rather blue to me and as for Maharashtra - 🤣 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[rcronald]

AP is going to get so much money and development…..

[iain]

Pretty astonishing stuff so far, if it holds. Big inroads from the INDIA Alliance into the Hindi belt, no BJP advance in West Bengal and Modi’s majority basically dependent on the last minute deals he did with TDP, JD(U) and others.

[Sibboleth]

The strikingly poor BJP results in UP are rather telling, given that the state government there is fully cloud cuckoo and has been bad on development issues.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 7:13:13 GMT Sibboleth said:

The strikingly poor BJP results in UP are rather telling, given that the state government there is fully cloud cuckoo and has been bad on development issues.

Interesting that in UP (BJP), Karnataka (INC), and Andhra Pradesh (YSRCP), are all underperforming compared to expectations, and all are awful on develop issues. I just feel bad for Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. 😅

[rcronald]

The BJP is going to have to push some extremely hard labour/trade reforms, how much do we expect Congress to go along with it to increase employment? Would they accept an increase to welfare in the meantime to keep their opposition to it civilised?

[iain]

The results in Punjab are (not unexpectedly I suppose) an absolute mess.

[iain]

Jun 4, 2024 7:18:25 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 4, 2024 7:13:13 GMT Sibboleth said:

The strikingly poor BJP results in UP are rather telling, given that the state government there is fully cloud cuckoo and has been bad on development issues.

Interesting that in UP (BJP), Karnataka (INC), and Andhra Pradesh (YSRCP), are all underperforming compared to expectations, and all are awful on develop issues. I just feel bad for Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. 😅

I don’t think the INC are underperforming in Karnataka - they are behind in the state but I don’t remember any expectation they would be ahead, and they’re on track to make a significant number of gains.

The best BJP results look to be in Odisha (versus BJD rather than the opposition alliance) and Madhya Pradesh.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 7:41:34 GMT iain said:

Jun 4, 2024 7:18:25 GMT rcronald said:

Interesting that in UP (BJP), Karnataka (INC), and Andhra Pradesh (YSRCP), are all underperforming compared to expectations, and all are awful on develop issues. I just feel bad for Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. 😅

I don’t think the INC are underperforming in Karnataka - they are behind in the state but I don’t remember any expectation they would be ahead, and they’re on track to make a significant number of gains.

The best BJP results look to be in Odisha (versus BJD rather than the opposition alliance) and Madhya Pradesh.

There was a strong expectation on the ground for major BJP losses in the state. If the government there wasn’t pushing it with some rather controversial programs/proposals, the BJP would have lost more.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 7:38:03 GMT iain said:

The results in Punjab are (not unexpectedly I suppose) an absolute mess.

Decent chance of 2 Khalistani victories.

[rcronald]

Omar Abdullah just conceded in Kashmir.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 1, 2024 15:14:11 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 1, 2024 10:21:18 GMT rcronald said:

my guess: slight BJP increase, slight decrease for the allies. So a small net gain or no change for the NDA.

Seems, You were right and my pessimism wrong - most exitPolls predict (as most pundits had done) 350+ for NDA:

Turns out, that i was by expecting stagnation not too pessimistic, but too optimistic!
300 seats for NDA were my absolute minimum imaginable and now it could be even less!

[Georg Ebner]

May 16, 2024 11:58:49 GMT Georg Ebner said:

May 15, 2024 11:21:05 GMT The Bishop said:

If this election does turn out less well "than expected" for the BJP (of course, it would require one of the miracles of our age for them not to clearly win it) then I do wonder if Modi publicly saying he wanted the biggest blowout ever might be a factor. I did say it appeared just a tad hubristic at the time....

INDIA campaigned on Modi intending to abolish the quotas/reservations by changing the constitution. What was immediately ruled out by BJP, but brought them into defensive.
Though the real reason for an underPerFormance would be "the economy, stupid": By BJP being branded as the party of the urban rich a la 2004. Their image is better than 20 years ago, but there is a certain clandestine (i.e. publicly unarticulated) disSatisFaction of many with the present economical situation.

2 maps, which are helpful to understand India's present economical&social situation - on the one hand:



...on the other hand: InCome 2019 vs. 2024: