India

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 4, 2024 2:46:55 GMT ibfc said:

India Today has the best panel.

Yes, numberCrunching instead of the chatter at the others.

[Georg Ebner]

Mostly PostalVotes counted, but disappointing for NDA in Maharashtra&Haryana&Karnataka (unsurprising) and UttarPradesh (surprising - but now and again i have thought, that SP might be too strong there now for a blowOut).

[Georg Ebner]

WestBengal presently a tossUp, so as expected (but worse than in some exitPolls).
Strong perFormance of BJP in Odisha, though.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 3:40:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Mostly PostalVotes counted, but disappointing for NDA in Maharashtra&Haryana&Karnataka (unsurprising) and UttarPradesh (surprising - but now and again i have thought, that SP might be too strong there now for a blowOut).

Are postals even indicative of actual full results? The UP results are borderline absurd (more than 20 INDIA gains)…

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 4, 2024 3:42:30 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 4, 2024 3:40:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Mostly PostalVotes counted, but disappointing for NDA in Maharashtra&Haryana&Karnataka (unsurprising) and UttarPradesh (surprising - but now and again i have thought, that SP might be too strong there now for a blowOut).

Are postals even indicative of actual full results? The UP results are borderline absurd (more than 20 INDIA gains)…

If i remember correctly, the PV are BJP-leaning; also the urban areas and the rural ones not, of course.

[Georg Ebner]

They seem to present the fastest counting:

www.timesnownews.com/elections

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 3:49:47 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 4, 2024 3:42:30 GMT rcronald said:

Are postals even indicative of actual full results? The UP results are borderline absurd (more than 20 INDIA gains)…

If i remember correctly, the PV are BJP-leaning; also the urban areas and the rural ones not, of course.

But look at the current results in places like Arunachal East, the BJP just won the legislative election by a landslide and is supposedly trailing in the LK election….

[Georg Ebner]

Now INDIA is leading in UttarPradesh...

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 3:59:09 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Now INDIA is leading in UttarPradesh...

If the results in UP hold, Yogi is definitely not replacing Modi…

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 4, 2024 4:10:48 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 4, 2024 3:59:09 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Now INDIA is leading in UttarPradesh...

If the results in UP hold, Yogi is definitely not replacing Modi…

Annoyingly - not for the first time - they do not show, how much has been counted.

In Modi's seat Varanasi it's neck-to-neck - but the ECI has only 60.000 counted.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 4:29:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 4, 2024 4:10:48 GMT rcronald said:

If the results in UP hold, Yogi is definitely not replacing Modi…

Annoyingly - not for the first time - they do not show, how much has been counted.

In Modi's seat Varanasi it's neck-to-neck - but the ECI has only 60.000 counted.

So the UP results are extremely early?

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 4, 2024 4:36:24 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 4, 2024 4:29:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Annoyingly - not for the first time - they do not show, how much has been counted.

In Modi's seat Varanasi it's neck-to-neck - but the ECI has only 60.000 counted.

So the UP results are extremely early?

At least those at the ECI.
But those of the media are certainly far further.

The stockExChange is imploding...

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 4, 2024 4:10:48 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 4, 2024 3:59:09 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Now INDIA is leading in UttarPradesh...

If the results in UP hold, Yogi is definitely not replacing Modi…

Yes, and Modi will work against him. But he would be more popular than his opPonent. 

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 4:50:14 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 4, 2024 4:36:24 GMT rcronald said:

So the UP results are extremely early?

At least those at the ECI.
But those of the media are certainly far further.

The stockExChange is imploding...

TV ahead of the actual counters?

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 4:50:14 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 4, 2024 4:36:24 GMT rcronald said:

So the UP results are extremely early?

At least those at the ECI.
But those of the media are certainly far further.

The stockExChange is imploding...

All of the channels seem to suggest that not much has been actually counted…

[rcronald]

I’m looking at the TimesNow count and most of the states where the BJP is performing best are the ones that actually have a decent amount of the vote in and the ones where they are performing the worst at the moment are the ones where the count is so early that they can’t even bring raw numbers.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 4, 2024 5:03:54 GMT rcronald said:

Jun 4, 2024 4:50:14 GMT Georg Ebner said:

At least those at the ECI.
But those of the media are certainly far further.

The stockExChange is imploding...

All of the channels seem to suggest that not much has been actually counted…

Where do You see it?
Hilariously they don't show, how much is counted.

[rcronald]

Jun 4, 2024 5:32:33 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 4, 2024 5:03:54 GMT rcronald said:

All of the channels seem to suggest that not much has been actually counted…

Where do You see it?
Hilariously they don't show, how much is counted.

all of the headlines (online) suggest ‘early trends’ , and TimesNow have some actual numbers where it seems like the states where it’s not actually early are MP,Delhi, and Kerala.

[rcronald]

For example, Shashi Tharoor has 68,741 votes, which is 34.92% of the vote.

Modi has 169,924 votes, which is 71.09% of the vote.

Since UP constituencies are massively oversized, and Kerala constituencies are massively undersized, Kerala is much further into the actual count.

[Georg Ebner]

Presently it is, that the gains in the East saved BJP.
The poor rural areas in the North(West) left them. 2004-vibes.