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India
Jun 4, 2024 16:21:54 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jun 4, 2024 16:21:54 GMT
In a major upset, the BJP has won the Odisha Assembly election, ending Naveen Patnaik’s 24 year reign.
BJP (NDA) - 79 (+56)
BJD (other) - 50 (-62)
INC (INDIA) - 14 (+5)
Others - 4 (+2)
Not contesting:
CPI - 0 (-1)
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Jun 4, 2024 19:23:48 GMT
If you look at the exit polls state by state, you’ll see that they were wrong in roughly 3-4 states, it’s just that they are some of the largest and the misses were massive. True enough. Although one pollster has gone on TV to publicly apologise (in floods of tears natch) for the somewhat planet sized miss in the overall numbers. |
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India
Jun 4, 2024 19:52:08 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jun 4, 2024 19:52:08 GMT
If you look at the exit polls state by state, you’ll see that they were wrong in roughly 3-4 states, it’s just that they are some of the largest and the misses were massive. True enough. Although one pollster has gone on TV to publicly apologise (in floods of tears natch) for the somewhat planet sized miss in the overall numbers. I feel really bad for him, he’s a good pollster and was the only one to actually catch the size of the BJP wave in Odisha. Unlike other pollsters, he actually said after the exit polls that there’s a decent chance that Maharashtra could end up completely wrong as 20 seats were so tight that they were within the margin of error. (and like he said, almost all of the tight races ended up on the pro-INDIA side). UP screwed everyone, and WB is problematic to poll because a decent amount of voters there are essentially coerced into voting TMC/AITC. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 4, 2024 23:37:27 GMT
“ BJP wins Mumbai Northwest by 48 votes out of 951,582 votes”
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427 
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Post by iain on Jun 4, 2024 23:46:58 GMT
“ BJP wins Mumbai Northwest by 48 votes out of 951,582 votes” Not quite - it was a Shiv Sena - so BJP ally - win over Shiv Sena (UBT) - the Congress ally. Could have been worse though - in the penultimate update the Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate was leading by 1 vote! |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 5, 2024 4:16:19 GMT
I’ll probably go over all of the constituencies in a couple of days, but I’m pretty sure that a pretty large majority of constituencies that ended up being very tight were won by I.N.D.I.A, so the got quite lucky as well.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 5, 2024 6:26:03 GMT
“ BJP wins Mumbai Northwest by 48 votes out of 951,582 votes” The equivalent of 2 votes for a British sized constituency. |
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India
Jun 5, 2024 6:31:49 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jun 5, 2024 6:31:49 GMT
I’ll probably go over all of the constituencies in a couple of days, but I’m pretty sure that a pretty large majority of constituencies that ended up being very tight were won by I.N.D.I.A, so the got quite lucky as well. For example: the BJP lost 2 seats in Kerala by less than 2%. Attingal- 1.65% Thiruvananthapuram (Shashi Tharoor’s constituency)- 1.67% Btw, (and correct me if I’m wrong ibfc ) it’s actually a good sign of progress and the BJP would have almost certainly gained both seats and perhaps some more if Biren Singh didn’t mishandle the Manipur situation so badly. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 5, 2024 12:12:20 GMT
“ BJP wins Mumbai Northwest by 48 votes out of 951,582 votes” The equivalent of 2 votes for a British sized constituency. Not really a surprise, given they would have to expand the Lok Sabha to an unmanageable size otherwise - but Indian constituencies are BIG! |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Jun 5, 2024 13:33:29 GMT
True enough. Although one pollster has gone on TV to publicly apologise (in floods of tears natch) for the somewhat planet sized miss in the overall numbers. I feel really bad for him, he’s a good pollster and was the only one to actually catch the size of the BJP wave in Odisha. Unlike other pollsters, he actually said after the exit polls that there’s a decent chance that Maharashtra could end up completely wrong as 20 seats were so tight that they were within the margin of error. (and like he said, almost all of the tight races ended up on the pro-INDIA side). UP screwed everyone, and WB is problematic to poll because a decent amount of voters there are essentially coerced into voting TMC/AITC. Poor soul: |
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India
Jun 5, 2024 13:48:27 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jun 5, 2024 13:48:27 GMT
I feel really bad for him, he’s a good pollster and was the only one to actually catch the size of the BJP wave in Odisha. Unlike other pollsters, he actually said after the exit polls that there’s a decent chance that Maharashtra could end up completely wrong as 20 seats were so tight that they were within the margin of error. (and like he said, almost all of the tight races ended up on the pro-INDIA side). UP screwed everyone, and WB is problematic to poll because a decent amount of voters there are essentially coerced into voting TMC/AITC. Poor soul: He (and other pollsters) got extremely unlucky in places like Maharashtra, the I.N.D.I.A alliance won more than half of its seats by less than 10% while the NDA won most of its seats by larger margins. West Bengal can’t be properly polled because of TNC violence in the state. |
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India
Jun 5, 2024 15:45:48 GMT
Post by johnloony on Jun 5, 2024 15:45:48 GMT
“ BJP wins Mumbai Northwest by 48 votes out of 951,582 votes” Not quite - it was a Shiv Sena - so BJP ally - win over Shiv Sena (UBT) - the Congress ally. Could have been worse though - in the penultimate update the Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate was leading by 1 vote! Did the top two candidates have the same surname and first initial? |
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India
Jun 5, 2024 17:54:41 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jun 5, 2024 17:54:41 GMT
Not quite - it was a Shiv Sena - so BJP ally - win over Shiv Sena (UBT) - the Congress ally. Could have been worse though - in the penultimate update the Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate was leading by 1 vote! Did the top two candidates have the same surname and first initial? Shiv Sena was 1 party until a year ago (or maybe 2). |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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India
Jun 5, 2024 21:50:00 GMT
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 5, 2024 21:50:00 GMT
Did the top two candidates have the same surname and first initial? Shiv Sena was 1 party until a year ago (or maybe 2). And the funny thing is: We can be sure, that in some years SS(UBT) will be a BJP-ally and SS one of INC... |
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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India
Jun 6, 2024 0:19:33 GMT
Post by Foggy on Jun 6, 2024 0:19:33 GMT
The equivalent of 2 votes for a British sized constituency. Not really a surprise, given they would have to expand the Lok Sabha to an unmanageable size otherwise - but Indian constituencies are BIG! State Assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh are known to have five times as many electors as UK House of Commons seats. Granted, that's picking a non-random example of the most populous state, but it gives you some idea of the scale of democratic exercises on the subcontinent. |
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India
Jun 6, 2024 0:31:39 GMT
Post by johnloony on Jun 6, 2024 0:31:39 GMT
Not really a surprise, given they would have to expand the Lok Sabha to an unmanageable size otherwise - but Indian constituencies are BIG! State Assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh are known to have five times as many electors as UK House of Commons seats. Granted, that's picking a non-random example of the most populous state, but it gives you some idea of the scale of democratic exercises on the subcontinent. Not sure what point is being made by these various comments about numbers of votes or electorates. We already knew that India is rhe biggest country in the world. |
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India
Jun 6, 2024 8:52:18 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 6, 2024 8:52:18 GMT
Interesting to see Modi making a big noise about a congratulatory message from Taiwan. What do you make of that ibfc? |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427
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Post by iain on Jun 6, 2024 10:37:26 GMT
Results by State below. FPTP in India is a particularly cruel mistress, with 'wrong winner' results and huge landslides with very small popular vote leads both common occurences. There are a few seats where more than one INDIA candidate stood (and one, Sikkim, with more than one NDA candidate), and all votes have been included in the totals below. This will only make a fraction of a % difference in a few states. I have however removed Kerala, Punjab and West Bengal and put these in their own tables below, due to their unique circumstances.
| INDIA voteshare | INDIA seats | NDA voteshare | NDA seats | Other voteshare | Other seats | | Andaman & Nicobar | 41.5% | 0 | 50.6% | 1 | 7.9% | 0 | | Andhra Pradesh | 3.2% | 0 | 53.4% | 21 | 43.4% | 4 | | Arunachal Pradesh | 30.4% | 0 | 48.9% | 2 | 20.7% | 0 | | Assam | 45.7% | 3 | 46.3% | 11 | 8.0% | 0 | | Bihar | 39.3% | 9 | 47.2% | 30 | 13.5% | 1 | | Chandigarh | 48.2% | 1 | 47.7% | 0 | 4.1% | 0 | Chhatisgarh
| 41.1% | 1 | 52.7% | 10 | 6.2% | 0 | | D&NH & D&D | 28.5% | 0 | 52.8% | 1 | 18.7% | 1 | | Delhi | 43.1% | 0 | 54.4% | 7 | 2.5% | 0 | | Goa | 39.7% | 1 | 50.8% | 1 | 9.5% | 0 | | Gujarat | 35.3% | 1 | 61.9% | 25 | 2.8% | 0 | | Haryana | 47.8% | 5 | 46.1% | 5 | 6.1% | 0 | | Himachal Pradesh | 41.7% | 0 | 56.4% | 4 | 1.9% | 0 | | Jammu & Kashmir | 50.2% | 2 | 24.4% | 2 | 25.4% | 1 | Jharkand
| 39.6% | 5 | 47.2% | 9 | 13.2% | 0 | | Karnataka | 45.4% | 9 | 51.7% | 19 | 2.9% | 0 | | Ladakh | 27.0% | 0 | 23.8% | 0 | 49.2% | 1 | | Lakshadweep | 99.2% | 1 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4% | 0 | | Madhya Pradesh | 32.9% | 0 | 59.3% | 29 | 7.8% | 0 | | Maharashtra | 44.0% | 30 | 43.6% | 17 | 12.4% | 1 | | Manipur | 47.6% | 2 | 35.5% | 0 | 16.9% | 0 | | Meghalaya | 36.9% | 1 | 24.2% | 0 | 38.9% | 1 | | Mizoram | 20.1% | 0 | 6.8% | 0 | 73.1% | 1 | | Nagaland | 52.8% | 1 | 46.2% | 0 | 1.0% | 0 | | Odisha | 13.2% | 1 | 45.3% | 20 | 41.5% | 0 | | Puducherry | 52.7% | 1 | 35.8% | 0 | 11.5% | 0 | | Rajasthan | 45.0% | 11 | 49.2% | 14 | 5.8% | 0 | | Sikkim | 0.6% | 0 | 47.6% | 1 | 51.8% | 0 | | Tamil Nadu | 47.0% | 39 | 18.2% | 0 | 34.8% | 0 | | Telangana | 40.3% | 8 | 35.1% | 8 | 24.6% | 1 | | Tripura | 23.9% | 0 | 70.7% | 2 | 5.4% | 0 | | Uttar Pradesh | 43.6% | 43 | 43.7% | 36 | 12.7% | 1 | | Uttarakhand | 32.8% | 0 | 56.8% | 5 | 10.4% | 0 |
In Kerala both the (INC led) UDF and (Communist led) LDF are part of INDIA, but both alliances stood separately in every seat.
| UDF voteshare | UDF seats | LDF voteshare | LDF seats | NDA voteshare | NDA seats | Other voteshare | Other seats | | Kerala | 45.2% | 18 | 33.3% | 1 | 19.2% | 1 | 2.3% | 0 |
In Punjab both the INC and AAP are part of INDIA, but both stood separately in every seat. Some other minor INDIA allies stood, but they added up to only 0.2% in total. The BJP split with long time ally SAD (who won 1 of the 3 other seats), adding to the fragmentation.
| INC voteshare | INC seats | AAP voteshare | AAP seats | NDA voteshare | NDA seats | Other voteshare | Other seats | | Punjab | 26.3% | 7 | 26.0% | 3 | 18.6% | 0 | 28.9% | 3 |
In West Bengal most INDIA parties stood as part of the SDA but the TMC went it alone, despite being a part of the national alliance.
| SDA voteshare | SDA seats | TMC voteshare | TMC seats | NDA voteshare | NDA seats | Other voteshare | Other seats | | West Bengal | 11.0% | 0 | 45.8% | 30 | 38.7% | 12 | 4.5% | 0 |
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India
Jun 6, 2024 10:42:37 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jun 6, 2024 10:42:37 GMT
Results by State below. FPTP in India is a particularly cruel mistress, with 'wrong winner' results and huge landslides with very small popular vote leads both common occurences. There are a few seats where more than one INDIA candidate stood (and one, Sikkim, with more than one NDA candidate), and all votes have been included in the totals below. This will only make a fraction of a % difference in a few states. I have however removed Kerala, Punjab and West Bengal and put these in their own tables below, due to their unique circumstances.
| INDIA voteshare | INDIA seats | NDA voteshare | NDA seats | Other voteshare | Other seats | | Andaman & Nicobar | 41.5% | 0 | 50.6% | 1 | 7.9% | 0 | | Andhra Pradesh | 3.2% | 0 | 53.4% | 21 | 43.4% | 4 | | Arunachal Pradesh | 30.4% | 0 | 48.9% | 2 | 20.7% | 0 | | Assam | 45.7% | 3 | 46.3% | 11 | 8.0% | 0 | | Bihar | 39.3% | 9 | 47.2% | 30 | 13.5% | 1 | | Chandigarh | 48.2% | 1 | 47.7% | 0 | 4.1% | 0 | Chhatisgarh
| 41.1% | 1 | 52.7% | 10 | 6.2% | 0 | | D&NH & D&D | 28.5% | 0 | 52.8% | 1 | 18.7% | 1 | | Delhi | 43.1% | 0 | 54.4% | 7 | 2.5% | 0 | | Goa | 39.7% | 1 | 50.8% | 1 | 9.5% | 0 | | Gujarat | 35.3% | 1 | 61.9% | 25 | 2.8% | 0 | | Haryana | 47.8% | 5 | 46.1% | 5 | 6.1% | 0 | | Himachal Pradesh | 41.7% | 0 | 56.4% | 4 | 1.9% | 0 | | Jammu & Kashmir | 50.2% | 2 | 24.4% | 2 | 25.4% | 1 | Jharkand
| 39.6% | 5 | 47.2% | 9 | 13.2% | 0 | | Karnataka | 45.4% | 9 | 51.7% | 19 | 2.9% | 0 | | Ladakh | 27.0% | 0 | 23.8% | 0 | 49.2% | 1 | | Lakshadweep | 99.2% | 1 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4% | 0 | | Madhya Pradesh | 32.9% | 0 | 59.3% | 29 | 7.8% | 0 | | Maharashtra | 44.0% | 30 | 43.6% | 17 | 12.4% | 1 | | Manipur | 47.6% | 2 | 35.5% | 0 | 16.9% | 0 | | Meghalaya | 36.9% | 1 | 24.2% | 0 | 38.9% | 1 | | Mizoram | 20.1% | 0 | 6.8% | 0 | 73.1% | 1 | | Nagaland | 52.8% | 1 | 46.2% | 0 | 1.0% | 0 | | Odisha | 13.2% | 1 | 45.3% | 20 | 41.5% | 0 | | Puducherry | 52.7% | 1 | 35.8% | 0 | 11.5% | 0 | | Rajasthan | 45.0% | 11 | 49.2% | 14 | 5.8% | 0 | | Sikkim | 0.6% | 0 | 47.6% | 1 | 51.8% | 0 | | Tamil Nadu | 47.0% | 39 | 18.2% | 0 | 34.8% | 0 | | Telangana | 40.3% | 8 | 35.1% | 8 | 24.6% | 1 | | Tripura | 23.9% | 0 | 70.7% | 2 | 5.4% | 0 | | Uttar Pradesh | 43.6% | 43 | 43.7% | 36 | 12.7% | 1 | | Uttarakhand | 32.8% | 0 | 56.8% | 5 | 10.4% | 0 |
In Kerala both the (INC led) UDF and (Communist led) LDF are part of INDIA, but both alliances stood separately in every seat.
| UDF voteshare | UDF seats | LDF voteshare | LDF seats | NDA voteshare | NDA seats | Other voteshare | Other seats | | Kerala | 45.2% | 18 | 33.3% | 1 | 19.2% | 1 | 2.3% | 0 |
In Punjab both the INC and AAP are part of INDIA, but both stood separately in every seat. Some other minor INDIA allies stood, but they added up to only 0.2% in total. The BJP split with long time ally SAD (who won 1 of the 3 other seats), adding to the fragmentation.
| INC voteshare | INC seats | AAP voteshare | AAP seats | NDA voteshare | NDA seats | Other voteshare | Other seats | | Punjab | 26.3% | 7 | 26.0% | 3 | 18.6% | 0 | 28.9% | 3 |
In West Bengal most INDIA parties stood as part of the SDA but the TMC went it alone, despite being a part of the national alliance.
| SDA voteshare | SDA seats | TMC voteshare | TMC seats | NDA voteshare | NDA seats | Other voteshare | Other seats | | West Bengal | 11.0% | 0 | 45.8% | 30 | 38.7% | 12 | 4.5% | 0 |
The Maharashtra, and Odisha results (compared to votes) are simply cruel. Edit: I’m pretty sure that your Assam data is inaccurate. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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India
Jun 6, 2024 11:04:12 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jun 6, 2024 11:04:12 GMT
State Assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh are known to have five times as many electors as UK House of Commons seats. Granted, that's picking a non-random example of the most populous state, but it gives you some idea of the scale of democratic exercises on the subcontinent. Not sure what point is being made by these various comments about numbers of votes or electorates. We already knew that India is rhe biggest country in the world.Um no, that is Russia  If you mean the most populous (and I presume you did) does it actually beat China these days? |
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