India

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 5, 2024 5:23:57 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Haryana and Jammu&Kashmir will be counted next TuesDay, but voting ends toDay at 18:00 (13.30 BST), after which the exitPolls can be released.
After their, well, not so great achievement in the federal election probably only few will have been ordered&conducted.

Additionally everyThing else than a more or less huge defeat for BJP in Haryana would be a sensation.

In Jammu&Kashmir it's the first election in a decade.
In Jammu BJP and INC will rival; the latter will hope, its ally JKNC can sweep Kashmir for getting an overallMajority.

Which takes place (at least to some extent)!
According to some media the BJP is ahead by seats (though not by votes), to some it's neck-to-neck.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 8, 2024 4:44:38 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 5, 2024 5:23:57 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Haryana and Jammu&Kashmir will be counted next TuesDay, but voting ends toDay at 18:00 (13.30 BST), after which the exitPolls can be released.
After their, well, not so great achievement in the federal election probably only few will have been ordered&conducted.

Additionally everyThing else than a more or less huge defeat for BJP in Haryana would be a sensation.

In Jammu&Kashmir it's the first election in a decade.
In Jammu BJP and INC will rival; the latter will hope, its ally JKNC can sweep Kashmir for getting an overallMajority.

Which takes place (at least to some extent)!
According to some media the BJP is ahead by seats (though not by votes), to some it's neck-to-neck.

Media like the ToI, NDTV have now BJP clearly (45-49 of 90) ahead, too.

[Georg Ebner]

As usual no idea, how much is counted (let alone any bias).
But BJP has this in the bag - if necessary, what is anyWay unlikely, they could rely on Ind.s (~5) & INLD (~2).

[Georg Ebner]

After over 1 hour i just heard an INCer saying, that only 20% is counted.
And that they are hoping for the rural areas.

[ibfc]

Oct 8, 2024 5:36:39 GMT Georg Ebner said:

After over 1 hour i just heard an INCer saying, that only 20% is counted.
And that they are hoping for the rural areas.

More than 50% is counted.

[Georg Ebner]

Big conGratulations, ibfc - also to J&K, where You have swept Jammu! (Only the strategy to split the Muslims in Kashmir did not work.)

[iain]

So the INC-JKNC alliance will comfortably win a majority in Jammu & Kashmir, which was thought to be touch and go, but the unpopular BJP government has somehow been re-elected in Haryana despite being expected to go down in a landslide.

I’m not sure why Indian pollsters bother quite honestly.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 8, 2024 7:38:25 GMT iain said:

So the INC-JKNC alliance will comfortably win a majority in Jammu & Kashmir, which was thought to be touch and go, but the unpopular BJP government has somehow been re-elected in Haryana despite being expected to go down in a landslide.

I’m not sure why Indian pollsters bother quite honestly.

To be fair: They got INC&JKNC right, though BJP a little bit too low (apart from local GulivanNews) and PDP a bit too high.
But Haryana was indeed an epic failure again - and it seemed so clear: This time even "on the ground" several MLAs defected from BJP to INC.
What would interest me: Did inSiders like You, ibfc , have any data/rumours? Your CM was very confident, but then he is supposed to pretend that, isn't he?

[ibfc]

Oct 8, 2024 11:52:36 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 8, 2024 7:38:25 GMT iain said:

So the INC-JKNC alliance will comfortably win a majority in Jammu & Kashmir, which was thought to be touch and go, but the unpopular BJP government has somehow been re-elected in Haryana despite being expected to go down in a landslide.

I’m not sure why Indian pollsters bother quite honestly.

To be fair: They got INC&JKNC right, though BJP a little bit too low (apart from local GulivanNews) and PDP a bit too high.
But Haryana was indeed an epic failure again - and it seemed so clear: This time even "on the ground" several MLAs defected from BJP to INC.
What would interest me: Did inSiders like You, ibfc , have any data/rumours? Your CM was very confident, but then he is supposed to pretend that, isn't he?

Our data was clear that we were winning since at least the beginning of September. INC’s faulty ticket distribution was the last piece of the puzzle. Indian pollsters have been viciously trolled by INC supporters after June 4 debacle. My take is they just made up results to go with conventional wisdom so that no one will accuse them of being paid by BJP.

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

ibfc After this election's outCome in Jammu&Kashmir i can understand less than ever before, that the 2 parts were not separated: The Valley (India's version) consists these days anyWay purely out of Muslims and Jammu would have a HinduMajority (and at the same time a substantial enough MuslimMinority, that the Hindus would permanently tend to coalesce behind BJP).

[Merseymike]

www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/08/opposition-congress-party-wins-power-in-indian-administered-kashmir

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 8, 2024 20:56:27 GMT Merseymike said:

www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/08/opposition-congress-party-wins-power-in-indian-administered-kashmir

"The Indian prime minister’s hopes of his party gaining power in Kashmir" is just laughable: How could the BJP be expected to win a majority, when most seats have a MuslimMajority? Their only hope was to split the MuslimVote and most smaller parties - not least separatists... - were indeed suspected of having been supported by them tacitly. But the Muslims did not fulfill those BJP-plans.
And 48/90 is not exactly "a comfortable majority", at least not in India (albeit they will be able to rely in the parliament also on others).
Also not so sure, that the high turnOut was caused <alone> "to express their dissatisfaction with the Modi government’s actions": En passant i saw an exitPoll, where unEmployment was stated as main concern.
"The win is likely to be a boost for Congress and the opposition INDIA alliance": Wrong, that's as absurd as claiming a SF-victory in Ulster to be a boost for Labour. If anything, BJP can now paint INC as "the Muslim-party".
And Haryana, which can - contrary to Kashmir - indeed show Indian-trends, was no "local election" - and a sounding victory for BJP: They seemed on their way to lose after the disappointing GE in a series of regional elections (Jharkhand excluded), but Haryana gives them fresh hope.

But our inSider ibfc could write on that far better, of course.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 9, 2024 0:28:02 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 8, 2024 20:56:27 GMT Merseymike said:

www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/08/opposition-congress-party-wins-power-in-indian-administered-kashmir

"The win is likely to be a boost for Congress and the opposition INDIA alliance": Wrong, that's as absurd as claiming a SF-victory in Ulster to be a boost for Labour. If anything, BJP can now paint INC as "the Muslim-party".

A historical overView:



...shows, that J&K has turned into a duel of JKNC in Kashmir vs. BJP in Jammu, with the INC (or others like JKPDP) being mostly sidelined.

[The Bishop]

The result in Haryana is all the more remarkable because the early returns there did indeed point to a crushing BJP defeat. What on earth happened?

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 9, 2024 10:44:36 GMT The Bishop said:

The result in Haryana is all the more remarkable because the early returns there did indeed point to a crushing BJP defeat. What on earth happened?

Yes, that was incredible - i am not sure, i have ever seen anyThing like that: At the INC-HQs celebrating aso.
To Your question: I strongly assume, that rural votes came in first.
But our expert ibfc will/would know it far better, of course.

[Georg Ebner]

ChiefMinisters:

[Georg Ebner]

Haryana, 2024 added now:

[Georg Ebner]

Much noise had been made about the Jats throwing the election to the INC after this:

And indeed the INC increased its vote&seat-% - but BJP did so as well:

[ibfc]

Oct 9, 2024 10:44:36 GMT The Bishop said:

The result in Haryana is all the more remarkable because the early returns there did indeed point to a crushing BJP defeat. What on earth happened?

The first hour of counting is always postal ballots which are cast by government officials on election duty. INC actually led in 74 of the 90 seats in postal ballots. Government officials have been backing INC across the country due to a demand for rollback of pension reforms introduced in the early 2000s. Normal votes are only counted by around 0900 IST and the BJP started taking the lead as soon as this started. In general, following the first hour of counting in India is a waste of time. For context a seat having 200,000 voters would have around 1000 postal ballots or so.