India

[Sibboleth]

Counting in the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh to begin in a few hours. A change of government is very likely in Himachal Pradesh - where Congress stalwart Virbhadra Singh and the BJP's Prem Kumar Dhumal have regularly swapped jobs since the 90s* - and the consensus is that it probably won't be close. Drama is considered more likely in Gujarat, where against Modi's immense popularity in his home state must be stacked the BJPs now very long (since 1995!) tenure in the state and the fact that the state government has managed to piss off the Patel caste, who are normally amongst the Gujarat BJPs strongest supporters. Polling has shown the BJP ahead throughout the campaign, but sometimes by very narrow margins and Indian elections are often unpredictable; a comfortable re-election is not unlikely, but a shock defeat wouldn't be that much of a shock either.

*Singh has led Congress in the state since 1983 and frequently been CM since then (1983-90, 1993-98, 2003-07, 2012-present). Also an MP in the 1960s, 70s and early 80s, and again from 2009 until 2013; when he was first elected Nehru was still Prime Minister. Dhumal has led the BJP in the state since 1993.

[Sibboleth]

Counting is well underway and Gujarat is extremely tight. Flip a coin...

Meanwhile, HP is unexpectedly close - Congress are probably out, but not by the widely anticipated landslide.

[Sibboleth]

BJP seem to be pulling away in Gujarat, though a lot of seats are very close. Looks like an embarrassing hold, with only Modi's intensive campaigning - stronger (oh...) in the second phase seats - saving them. A clear BJP win in HP... but Dhumal may have lost his seat.

[Sibboleth]

Gujarat - BJP 99, Congress 77, Others 6
HP - BJP 44, Congress 21, CPM 1,* Independents 2

Dhumal did indeed lose his seat.

*wtf

[Georg Ebner]

Success for BJP:

Tripura was swept by them - what leaves CPI only Karnataka -, although in % the LeftFront held up quite well (43%:43%), INC was totally squeezed.

Nagaland sees NPF remaining strong, who are federally BJP-allies. BJP ran together with NDPP (a NPF-splinter) and BJP&NDPP could achieve a narrow majority (~31/60), but perhaps BJP will go to its stronger (ex)partners.

Meghalaya is a mess, for (to me) unknown reasons BJP and allies candidated separately, but BJP has probably better chances than INC to form an (instable) coalition.

Thus most states are in Modi-modus, only very few are still INC-run.

[Georg Ebner]

Karnataka elected 222 of its 224 members (2 delayed due deaths):

Won+Leading=Total (2013)

97+7=104 (40, +64) BJP
74+4=78 (122, -44) INC
37+0=37 (40, -3) JD(S)
02+1=03 (22, -19) others

[Georg Ebner]

Maps:

www.ndtv.com/elections/karnataka/assembly-map

[middyman]

India is a country the Government is courting with a view to a trade deal. States seem to tack on other issues in negotiations for such agreements and we need to do the same. This is one we need to raise with India.

If a national is discovered who is an illegal immigrant but no passport or other ID can be found, then that person cannot be deported. The normal procedure is for the UK to apply to the immigrant's country for a suitable travel document. In the meantime, the immigrant is detained.

India takes so long to deal with any such requests that the period for which such an immigrant can be detained expires and so the immigrant is released, seldom to be traced again.

Both Pakistan and Bangladesh are co-operative and issue documents promptly.

[Tony Otim]

Aug 29, 2019 7:31:03 GMT middyman said:

India is a country the Government is courting with a view to a trade deal. States seem to tack on other issues in negotiations for such agreements and we need to do the same. This is one we need to raise with India.

If a national is discovered who is an illegal immigrant but no passport or other ID can be found, then that person cannot be deported. The normal procedure is for the UK to apply to the immigrant's country for a suitable travel document. In the meantime, the immigrant is detained.

India takes so long to deal with any such requests that the period for which such an immigrant can be detained expires and so the immigrant is released, seldom to be traced again.

Both Pakistan and Bangladesh are co-operative and issue documents promptly.

From speaking with Indian friends, I'm not sure that India processes any application quicker than this (unless the wheels are greased) for anybody. It's certainly a problem, but not necessarily one specifically to do with deportation...

[middyman]

India has passed a law that if a child is born out of India but to Indian nationals, the child will only be recognised as an Indian citizen if the birth is registered at the Indian High Commission/Embassy. The latest scam is for illegal Indian immigrants to not register their children so that if they are apprehended they can resist deportation on the grounds that it will render their children stateless. Unfortunately for them, this ploy does not work as statelessness can only be used to resist deportation if all reasonable steps have been taken to avoid statelessness, and clearly that is not the case here.

[maxque]

Aug 29, 2019 7:31:03 GMT middyman said:

India is a country the Government is courting with a view to a trade deal. States seem to tack on other issues in negotiations for such agreements and we need to do the same. This is one we need to raise with India.

If a national is discovered who is an illegal immigrant but no passport or other ID can be found, then that person cannot be deported. The normal procedure is for the UK to apply to the immigrant's country for a suitable travel document. In the meantime, the immigrant is detained.

India takes so long to deal with any such requests that the period for which such an immigrant can be detained expires and so the immigrant is released, seldom to be traced again.

Both Pakistan and Bangladesh are co-operative and issue documents promptly.

I don't think UK is in a position to be picky about trade partners.

[middyman]

It goes from bad to worse, but the rest of the world stays silent

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-49520593

[ibfc]

Elections to the 243 member Bihar legislative assembly have been announced in three phases on 28 October, 3 November and 7 November. Counting will take place on 10 November. Will be hoping to provide some details and context in the run up to the election.

[ibfc]

Apologies haven’t been able to put in much work on this. But as an update, the first two phases are over and the third phase takes place tomorrow in Bihar. All the opinion polls (which by Indian law have to come out before the first phase) have predicted a victory for the ruling NDA (Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), the BJP and a couple of smaller parties). However, ground reports have predicted a much closer election with the opposition UPA (Ex CM Lalu Yadav’s RJD, the Congress and an assortment of Communist parties) having edged the first phase and the NDA having swept the second phase. The exit polls which are allowed to be published only tomorrow should give us a much clearer picture before the counting on Tuesday. Indian exit polls (especially of Axis My India) have been on the dot over the last 5/6 years.

[minionofmidas]

Exit polls predict a Mahagathbhandan victory.

Fairly reasonable first take on why this keeps happening to Modi's state placeholders (of course we don't know yet if it happened here)

m.hindustantimes.com/bihar-election/bankable-nitish-s-poll-appeal-now-under-cloud/story-f5dfOZwq402mkJbuAtDt7M.html

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 9, 2020 6:29:54 GMT minionofmidas said:

Exit polls predict a Mahagathbhandan victory.

Fairly reasonable first take on why this keeps happening to Modi's state placeholders (of course we don't know yet if it happened here)

m.hindustantimes.com/bihar-election/bankable-nitish-s-poll-appeal-now-under-cloud/story-f5dfOZwq402mkJbuAtDt7M.html

Yes, it was a hard fight of the popularity of federal PM Modi against - no, not the absent INC, instead versus the unpopularity of regional PM Kumar...
Strategically it was perhaps still no mistake of BJP to ally with the latter, because he said, that this will have been his last election, so remaining on his side will make it easier for BJP to absorb the relicts of his party.
Though without SS and JD(U) Modi won't have big allies in the near future, when it will likely be BJP vs. INC and/or regional parties grouped against a dominant BJP.

[ibfc]

It was well known that there was anti incumbency against Nitish and the BJP’s smaller ally, the LJP literally begged the BJP to dump the JD(U). The BJP however was scarred by the 2015 experience where it lost badly to a RJD-JDU-INC alliance. Also, the BJP still hasn’t figured out its state leadership with the Bihar BJP still being totally upper caste dominated. Anyway let’s see how things pan out tomorrow. As a supporter, am not too worried either way. Nothing like four years of RJD rule to ensure the BJP sweeps the Parliamentary elections in Bihar in 2024.

There are a also a lot of crucial by polls being declared tomorrow.

[minionofmidas]

I have no idea whatsoever how much is counted so far - certainly no constituency is fully counted - but currently NDA is on track to just barely hold on, with BJP winning more seats than JDU.

[minionofmidas]

Still not fully counted, current NDA lead of one over all other parties. INC also did worse than their RJD and Commie allies it seems. AIMIM somehow winning five seats as a third party!?

[ibfc]

The count is almost over with the NDA winning 124-126 seats. UPA would win 109-111 and others 8 including 5 from the MIM. MIM swept the Muslim majority seats on the Bengal border especially in Kishanganj district. The JDU massively underperformed and so did the Congress while the commies did well especially CPI(Marxist Leninists) who are ex insurgents. Lots of interesting questions now as the BJP has to prop up a tired and discredited Nitish Kumar and maintain a very thin majority which is dependent on two other parties ( the HAM (S) of former Nitish proxy CM, Jitan Ram Majhi and the VIP of Mukesh Sahani). The BJP also has to figure out what to do with the LJP which badly damaged the JDU especially in South Bihar but ended up winning only 1 seat on an effective vote share of nearly 9%.

The RJD faces being out of power again and will have to introspect on whether giving the Congress more than a quarter of the seats was worth it while the Congress needs to figure out if it'll ever grow with the RJD since their prospective vote base (other than Muslims) hate the RJD.

The AIMIM keeps expanding and is now looking at the Muslim majority districts of central Bengal (bordering the seats they did well in today) ahead of the Bengal polls in May much to the glee of the BJP.

Will post in more details on the results as well as by polls in multiple states tomorrow.