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Post by ibfc on May 16, 2024 14:05:18 GMT
On the ground yes, in private and leaked polling no. Opposition supporters are disproportionately more vocal. hopefully the private polls are correct. Outside of the usual suspects (like punjub), are there any states where the NDA is genuinely in trouble? I heard the Maharashtra, Bihar, and Jharkhand seem like the most troublesome. Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana. States with over performance are Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal. Basically a West East divide. UP and Bihar will probably be status quoist on the median while there’ll be marginal gains in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand. Basically the less caste ridden a state is, more NDA gains. Exceptions are Bihar and Gujarat which while caste ridden have an overwhelmingly pro NDA caste arithmetic. |
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Post by ibfc on May 16, 2024 14:05:49 GMT
Honestly, the system works and is required in such an unequal country. It is much better than the subjective kind of affirmative action you see in the West. Everyone knows what’s required and the criteria is objective. But what happens to poor regular caste people? Modi brought in a 10% quota for them in 2019. |
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May 16, 2024 14:06:37 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 16, 2024 14:06:37 GMT
But what happens to poor regular caste people? Modi brought in a 10% quota for them in 2019. Great. I thought that it was just for Dalits. |
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May 16, 2024 14:09:42 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 16, 2024 14:09:42 GMT
hopefully the private polls are correct. Outside of the usual suspects (like punjub), are there any states where the NDA is genuinely in trouble? I heard the Maharashtra, Bihar, and Jharkhand seem like the most troublesome. Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana. States with over performance are Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal. Basically a West East divide. UP and Bihar will probably be status quoist on the median while there’ll be marginal gains in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand. Basically the less caste ridden a state is, more NDA gains. Exceptions are Bihar and Gujarat which while caste ridden have an overwhelmingly pro NDA caste arithmetic. 1.Jats hurting the BJP in Harayana, and Rajastan? I hope that the idiots who deselected mps like Rahul Kaswan are happy with themselves…. 2.Who’s the weak link in Maharashtra, Shinde, or A.Pawar? 3.Was the situation in Karnataka already bad before the JD(S) scandal, or did the perv bury you? |
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Post by ibfc on May 16, 2024 14:10:31 GMT
Modi brought in a 10% quota for them in 2019. Great. I thought that it was just for Dalits. No there is broadly a 15% quota for Dalits and 7.5% one for tribals. This is broadly proportional to their population. There’s another 27.5 quota for backward classes who are roughly 50%. The remaining are general category and and the poor among them get another 10%. The threshold for poor is set so high that it probably includes 90% of everybody else. This is of course simplistic but this is the rough design which varies from state to state. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 16, 2024 14:16:48 GMT
Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana. States with over performance are Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal. Basically a West East divide. UP and Bihar will probably be status quoist on the median while there’ll be marginal gains in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand. Basically the less caste ridden a state is, more NDA gains. Exceptions are Bihar and Gujarat which while caste ridden have an overwhelmingly pro NDA caste arithmetic. 1.Jats hurting the BJP in Harayana, and Rajastan? I hope that the idiots who deselected mps like Rahul Kaswan are happy with themselves…. 2.Who’s the weak link in Maharashtra, Shinde, or A.Pawar? 3.Was the situation in Karnataka already bad before the JD(S) scandal, or did the perv bury you? I guess, it's also the regional governments: INC in Karnataka not long enough in office to be too unpopular; whereas BJP in Haryana is. In Maharashtra people might be upset by BJP having split SHS and NCP? |
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Post by ibfc on May 16, 2024 14:18:17 GMT
1.Jats hurting the BJP in Harayana, and Rajastan? I hope that the idiots who deselected mps like Rahul Kaswan are happy with themselves…. 2.Who’s the weak link in Maharashtra, Shinde, or A.Pawar? 3.Was the situation in Karnataka already bad before the JD(S) scandal, or did the perv bury you? I guess, it's also the regional governments: INC in Karnataka not long enough in office to be too unpopular; whereas BJP in Haryana is. In Maharashtra people might be upset by BJP having split SHS and NCP? Broadly this. There is also a Sharad Pawar inspired Maratha caste war against the BJP. Won’t go into the details on Rajasthan for now as it’s quite confusing. Easier to explain in hindsight  |
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Post by ibfc on May 16, 2024 14:18:46 GMT
Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Haryana. States with over performance are Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal. Basically a West East divide. UP and Bihar will probably be status quoist on the median while there’ll be marginal gains in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand. Basically the less caste ridden a state is, more NDA gains. Exceptions are Bihar and Gujarat which while caste ridden have an overwhelmingly pro NDA caste arithmetic. 1.Jats hurting the BJP in Harayana, and Rajastan? I hope that the idiots who deselected mps like Rahul Kaswan are happy with themselves…. 2.Who’s the weak link in Maharashtra, Shinde, or A.Pawar? 3.Was the situation in Karnataka already bad before the JD(S) scandal, or did the perv bury you? The scandal has had zero impact. |
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May 16, 2024 14:19:02 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 16, 2024 14:19:02 GMT
1.Jats hurting the BJP in Harayana, and Rajastan? I hope that the idiots who deselected mps like Rahul Kaswan are happy with themselves…. 2.Who’s the weak link in Maharashtra, Shinde, or A.Pawar? 3.Was the situation in Karnataka already bad before the JD(S) scandal, or did the perv bury you? I guess, it's also the regional governments: INC in Karnataka not long enough in office to be too unpopular; whereas BJP in Haryana is. In Maharashtra people might be upset by BJP having split SHS and NCP? I get being angry at the BJP for the NCP split, but Uddhav and his idiot son are at fault for the SS split. |
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May 16, 2024 14:20:23 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 16, 2024 14:20:23 GMT
1.Jats hurting the BJP in Harayana, and Rajastan? I hope that the idiots who deselected mps like Rahul Kaswan are happy with themselves…. 2.Who’s the weak link in Maharashtra, Shinde, or A.Pawar? 3.Was the situation in Karnataka already bad before the JD(S) scandal, or did the perv bury you? The scandal has had zero impact. Happy that the people of Karnataka are smart enough to understand that the BJP and JD(S) are not at fault for this. |
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Post by ibfc on May 16, 2024 14:25:47 GMT
The scandal has had zero impact. Happy that the people of Karnataka are smart enough to understand that the BJP and JD(S) are not at fault for this. More that the Revanna branch of the family are widely perceived to be pro iNC and have long held back the more popular Kumaraswamy from aligning/merging with the BJP. So the eviction of Revanna and his family from politics is widely seen as a win for the BJP and Kumaraswamy. P.S: Revanna and Kumaraswamy are the sons of JDS patriarch Deve Gowda who is of course a former Prime Minister. Kumaraswamy himself has become CM twice, once with BJP support and once with INC support but is very clearly a BJP sympathiser. The family deal was that Revanna would get to control Hassan (the home district) while Kumaraswamy would focus on the rest of the state. |
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May 16, 2024 14:29:37 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 16, 2024 14:29:37 GMT
Happy that the people of Karnataka are smart enough to understand that the BJP and JD(S) are not at fault for this. More that the Revanna branch of the family are widely perceived to be pro iNC and have long held back the more popular Kumaraswamy from aligning/merging with the BJP. So the eviction of Revanna and his family from politics is widely seen as a win for the BJP and Kumaraswamy. P.S: Revanna and Kumaraswamy are the sons of JDS patriarch Deve Gowda who is of course a former Prime Minister. Kumaraswamy himself has become CM twice, once with BJP support and once with INC support but is very clearly a BJP sympathiser. The family deal was that Revanna would get to control Hassan (the home district) while Kumaraswamy would focus on the rest of the state. I was aware that they are related, but didn’t know that the Revanna branch was pro-INC, now it makes sense why Kumaraswamy made some merger noises after the scandal. Btw, Jats being angry at the BJP is understandable, but who in the BJP thought that deselecting Jat MPs was a good idea? Edit: If the BJP is indeed performing badly in Karnataka, then I presume that the B. S. Yediyurappa era is truly over? |
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May 16, 2024 15:16:00 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 16, 2024 15:16:00 GMT
I guess, it's also the regional governments: INC in Karnataka not long enough in office to be too unpopular; whereas BJP in Haryana is. In Maharashtra people might be upset by BJP having split SHS and NCP? Broadly this. There is also a Sharad Pawar inspired Maratha caste war against the BJP. Won’t go into the details on Rajasthan for now as it’s quite confusing. Easier to explain in hindsight Is it a complete collapse in Maharashtra, or just a decline from the massive 2019 performance? And it is a complete collapse, why are Shinde, and A.Pawar not able to somewhat contain it? |
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Post by ibfc on May 17, 2024 12:23:26 GMT
More that the Revanna branch of the family are widely perceived to be pro iNC and have long held back the more popular Kumaraswamy from aligning/merging with the BJP. So the eviction of Revanna and his family from politics is widely seen as a win for the BJP and Kumaraswamy. P.S: Revanna and Kumaraswamy are the sons of JDS patriarch Deve Gowda who is of course a former Prime Minister. Kumaraswamy himself has become CM twice, once with BJP support and once with INC support but is very clearly a BJP sympathiser. The family deal was that Revanna would get to control Hassan (the home district) while Kumaraswamy would focus on the rest of the state. I was aware that they are related, but didn’t know that the Revanna branch was pro-INC, now it makes sense why Kumaraswamy made some merger noises after the scandal. Btw, Jats being angry at the BJP is understandable, but who in the BJP thought that deselecting Jat MPs was a good idea? Edit: If the BJP is indeed performing badly in Karnataka, then I presume that the B. S. Yediyurappa era is truly over? The issue was that Jats didn’t vote BJP in the assembly elections though there was no proximate reason to not do so at least in Rajasthan. Kaswan was supposedly at the centre of a conspiracy to get then Leader of the Opposition Rajendra Rathore defeated in his own seat. Rathore lost in what was widely seen as a straight fight between Jats and Rajputs. Rajputs in the belt had been baying for Kaswan’s head since then and since Rajputs were generally loyal in December, the party felt that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. The risk in not dropping Kaswan can be seen in even more caste ridden Barmer where a Rajput youth leader is standing as an independent against Jat candidates from the BJP and the INC. The absolute collapse of the Rajput vote means this is a very likely BJP loss as Jats have also moved away from the party. This is in contrast to 2014 where in a similar scenario with former Finance Minister Jaswant Singh contesting as the Rajput independent, the Jat BJP candidate won while the INC went third. Basically Jats moving to INC has left Jat BJP leaders vulnerable. |
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May 17, 2024 13:16:34 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 17, 2024 13:16:34 GMT
I was aware that they are related, but didn’t know that the Revanna branch was pro-INC, now it makes sense why Kumaraswamy made some merger noises after the scandal. Btw, Jats being angry at the BJP is understandable, but who in the BJP thought that deselecting Jat MPs was a good idea? Edit: If the BJP is indeed performing badly in Karnataka, then I presume that the B. S. Yediyurappa era is truly over? The issue was that Jats didn’t vote BJP in the assembly elections though there was no proximate reason to not do so at least in Rajasthan. Kaswan was supposedly at the centre of a conspiracy to get then Leader of the Opposition Rajendra Rathore defeated in his own seat. Rathore lost in what was widely seen as a straight fight between Jats and Rajputs. Rajputs in the belt had been baying for Kaswan’s head since then and since Rajputs were generally loyal in December, the party felt that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. The risk in not dropping Kaswan can be seen in even more caste ridden Barmer where a Rajput youth leader is standing as an independent against Jat candidates from the BJP and the INC. The absolute collapse of the Rajput vote means this is a very likely BJP loss as Jats have also moved away from the party. This is in contrast to 2014 where in a similar scenario with former Finance Minister Jaswant Singh contesting as the Rajput independent, the Jat BJP candidate won while the INC went third. Basically Jats moving to INC has left Jat BJP leaders vulnerable. Kaswan (Jat), and Rathore (Rajput) had a personal conflict, and it somehow turned into Caste warfare that is likely to result in at least 2 seats lost for the party? (From what you are saying, it sounds like both seats are gone despite being safe on paper. Are there any other seats significantly effected by the feud?) Edit: why did the Rajput vote collapse? And was the collapse only in Barmer, or in other constituencies as well? |
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Post by rcronald on May 17, 2024 17:26:30 GMT
Interview with strategist Naresh Arora (who seems like someone on the more moderate wing of the INC), his analysis, and answers seem very close to yours ibfc , perhaps with a somewhat of a lesser view of the BJP. He seems to suggests that almost all of the NDA’s losses are going to come from Karnataka (didn’t explain why, but said that he expected something close to a net lose of 8 seats, mostly in the Southern half), Maharashtra (BJP doing decently well, but the SS and especially NCP doing rather badly, slight edge to NDA), and Rajasthan (new CM is unpopular, and the population has buyers remorse, 1 to 5 net lose). Says that he wouldn’t be surprised if BRS merged with the BJP after the election due to very bad results and corruption. Clearly not a fan of Rahul…. |
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May 17, 2024 17:28:20 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 17, 2024 17:28:20 GMT
Interview with strategist Naresh Arora (who seems like someone on the more moderate wing of the INC), his analysis, and answers seem very close to yours ibfc , perhaps with a somewhat of a lesser view of the BJP. He seems to suggests that almost all of the NDA’s losses are going to come from Karnataka (didn’t explain why, but said that he expected something close to a net lose of 8 seats, mostly in the Southern half), Maharashtra (BJP doing decently well, but the SS and especially NCP doing rather badly, slight edge to NDA), and Rajasthan (new CM is unpopular, and the population has buyers remorse, 1 to 5 net lose). Says that he wouldn’t be surprised if BRS merged with the BJP after the election due to very bad results and corruption. Clearly not a fan of Rahul…. He also seems to suggest that a Khalistani candidate is favoured in one of the Punjab constituencies. |
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Post by ibfc on May 17, 2024 21:26:27 GMT
Interview with strategist Naresh Arora (who seems like someone on the more moderate wing of the INC), his analysis, and answers seem very close to yours ibfc , perhaps with a somewhat of a lesser view of the BJP. He seems to suggests that almost all of the NDA’s losses are going to come from Karnataka (didn’t explain why, but said that he expected something close to a net lose of 8 seats, mostly in the Southern half), Maharashtra (BJP doing decently well, but the SS and especially NCP doing rather badly, slight edge to NDA), and Rajasthan (new CM is unpopular, and the population has buyers remorse, 1 to 5 net lose). Says that he wouldn’t be surprised if BRS merged with the BJP after the election due to very bad results and corruption. Clearly not a fan of Rahul…. He also seems to suggest that a Khalistani candidate is favoured in one of the Punjab constituencies. Yes, Amritpal Singh who’s currently in a jail in Assam on multiple charges is contesting the election from jail and is very likely to win the Khadoor Sahib seat which is essentially rural areas around the city of Amritsar. It’s the most Sikh seat in Punjab and was the hub of the insurgency in the 80s and the 90s. |
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iain
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May 17, 2024 23:26:40 GMT
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Post by iain on May 17, 2024 23:26:40 GMT
Interview with strategist Naresh Arora (who seems like someone on the more moderate wing of the INC), his analysis, and answers seem very close to yours ibfc , perhaps with a somewhat of a lesser view of the BJP. He seems to suggests that almost all of the NDA’s losses are going to come from Karnataka (didn’t explain why, but said that he expected something close to a net lose of 8 seats, mostly in the Southern half), Maharashtra (BJP doing decently well, but the SS and especially NCP doing rather badly, slight edge to NDA), and Rajasthan (new CM is unpopular, and the population has buyers remorse, 1 to 5 net lose). Says that he wouldn’t be surprised if BRS merged with the BJP after the election due to very bad results and corruption. Clearly not a fan of Rahul…. He also seems to suggest that a Khalistani candidate is favoured in one of the Punjab constituencies. Is this the guy who won a by-election a couple of years ago (Sangrur?)? |
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May 18, 2024 3:05:13 GMT
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Post by rcronald on May 18, 2024 3:05:13 GMT
He also seems to suggest that a Khalistani candidate is favoured in one of the Punjab constituencies. Is this the guy who won a by-election a couple of years ago (Sangrur?)? no |
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