India

[ibfc]

Campaigning ended yesterday and the Prime Minister has retired to the Vivekananda Rock memorial in Kanyakumari for a two day vow of silence and meditation. He will resurface post the end of voting tomorrow. Exit polls start from 1800 IST tomorrow and the Congress has kicked things off by boycotting all exit poll shows. We might be in for a nice round of election denialism.

[rcronald]

May 31, 2024 13:23:36 GMT ibfc said:

Campaigning ended yesterday and the Prime Minister has retired to the Vivekananda Rock memorial in Kanyakumari for a two day vow of silence and meditation. He will resurface post the end of voting tomorrow. Exit polls start from 1800 IST tomorrow and the Congress has kicked things off by boycotting all exit poll shows. We might be in for a nice round of election denialism.

Im not predicting anything, but looking at the Muslim and Christian turnouts in Kerala, it looks like the UDC is likely to take a beating (after all, both LDF and the NDA are very much majority Hindu in Kerala). Why did the polls overestimate them so much?

Btw, why are large sections of the English speaking Indian media obsessed with Yogendra Yadav and his prediction? From what I’ve seen he’s been wrong every single time and is a partisan hack…


Edit:regarding my question about Kerala, from what I understand, the same can be asked about the NDA in Karnataka,Maharashtra, and Rajastan.

[ibfc]

May 31, 2024 13:31:00 GMT rcronald said:

May 31, 2024 13:23:36 GMT ibfc said:

Campaigning ended yesterday and the Prime Minister has retired to the Vivekananda Rock memorial in Kanyakumari for a two day vow of silence and meditation. He will resurface post the end of voting tomorrow. Exit polls start from 1800 IST tomorrow and the Congress has kicked things off by boycotting all exit poll shows. We might be in for a nice round of election denialism.

Im not predicting anything, but looking at the Muslim and Christian turnouts in Kerala, it looks like the UDC is likely to take a beating (after all, both LDF and the NDA are very much majority Hindu in Kerala). Why did the polls overestimate them so much?

Btw, why are large sections of the English speaking Indian media obsessed with Yogendra Yadav and his prediction? From what I’ve seen he’s been wrong every single time and is a partisan hack…

No one is able to model Kerala properly. Let’s see what Axis says tomorrow. As for Yogendra Yadav, he’s invited because the ones inviting him are partisan hacks who are invariably wrong too.

[rcronald]

May 31, 2024 13:35:30 GMT ibfc said:

May 31, 2024 13:31:00 GMT rcronald said:

Im not predicting anything, but looking at the Muslim and Christian turnouts in Kerala, it looks like the UDC is likely to take a beating (after all, both LDF and the NDA are very much majority Hindu in Kerala). Why did the polls overestimate them so much?

Btw, why are large sections of the English speaking Indian media obsessed with Yogendra Yadav and his prediction? From what I’ve seen he’s been wrong every single time and is a partisan hack…

No one is able to model Kerala properly. Let’s see what Axis says tomorrow. As for Yogendra Yadav, he’s invited because the ones inviting him are partisan hacks who are invariably wrong too.

Good luck tomorrow!

[Georg Ebner]

My uneducated guess is - and has been since the beginning - only minimal changes for BJP&NDA.

[rcronald]

May 31, 2024 22:12:08 GMT Georg Ebner said:

My uneducated guess is - and has been since the beginning - only minimal changes for BJP&NDA.

my guess: slight BJP increase, slight decrease for the allies. So a small net gain or no change for the NDA.

[eastmidlandsright]

Also guess but I could see a slight increases or slight decrease for the BJP, and very likely a small decrease for their allies. I never thought that the kind of outlandish results some were suggesting were ever likely. Modi is extremely popular but plenty of voters don't like giving any politician a blank cheque and his party and allies are not as popular as he is.

[ibfc]

May 31, 2024 13:23:36 GMT ibfc said:

Campaigning ended yesterday and the Prime Minister has retired to the Vivekananda Rock memorial in Kanyakumari for a two day vow of silence and meditation. He will resurface post the end of voting tomorrow. Exit polls start from 1800 IST tomorrow and the Congress has kicked things off by boycotting all exit poll shows. We might be in for a nice round of election denialism.

Congress and its allies have now declared that they will participate in exit poll debates today evening.

[rcronald]

Jun 1, 2024 11:40:21 GMT ibfc said:

May 31, 2024 13:23:36 GMT ibfc said:

Campaigning ended yesterday and the Prime Minister has retired to the Vivekananda Rock memorial in Kanyakumari for a two day vow of silence and meditation. He will resurface post the end of voting tomorrow. Exit polls start from 1800 IST tomorrow and the Congress has kicked things off by boycotting all exit poll shows. We might be in for a nice round of election denialism.

Congress and its allies have now declared that they will participate in exit poll debates today evening.

why did they change their minds?

[rcronald]

Looks like you finally won something in Kerala ibfc 😊

[rcronald]

Looks like the worst performing states for the BJP are Rajasthan, and Haryana.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 1, 2024 10:21:18 GMT rcronald said:

May 31, 2024 22:12:08 GMT Georg Ebner said:

My uneducated guess is - and has been since the beginning - only minimal changes for BJP&NDA.

my guess: slight BJP increase, slight decrease for the allies. So a small net gain or no change for the NDA.

Seems, You were right and my pessimism wrong - most exitPolls predict (as most pundits had done) 350+ for NDA:

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 1, 2024 14:21:14 GMT rcronald said:

Looks like the worst performing states for the BJP are Rajasthan, and Haryana.

As far as i can detect, Axis-MyIndia release their proJections just slowly, state-by-state.
For Rajasthan they forecast 16-19 NDA, 5-7 INDIA; for Haryana they predict this:

[rcronald]

Jun 1, 2024 15:18:19 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 1, 2024 14:21:14 GMT rcronald said:

Looks like the worst performing states for the BJP are Rajasthan, and Haryana.

As far as i can detect, Axis-MyIndia release their proJections just slowly, state-by-state.
For Rajasthan they forecast 16-19 NDA, 5-7 INDIA; for Haryana they predict this:

Given the large the majorities are in almost all of the constituencies, 5-7 seems a bit high for the INC in Rajasthan. (The same is true regarding 4 seats in Haryana)

[Georg Ebner]

Axis-MyIndia: "NDA likely to bag 46% of the votes"

[Georg Ebner]

Once more Axis:

[Georg Ebner]

Axis: In WB 26-31 (out of 42) for NDA, TMC far behind. Quite a wave.

EDIT:

[Georg Ebner]

So far like ibfc had written some time ago: Disappointments for NDA in the West, successes in the East (and South).

[rcronald]

Jun 1, 2024 16:00:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

So far like ibfc had written some time ago: Disappointments for NDA in the West, successes in the East (and South).

It looks like my hunch about the Congress government being unpopular in Karnataka was right. Most exit polls are showing minimal losses there.

If the BJP was really tanking in Karnataka then they wouldn’t have used the Congress government there as a punching bag in practically every state.

[Georg Ebner]

Axis-MyIndia claiming 361-401 for NDA vs. 131-166 for INDIA.
And other BJP-blowOuts in the east:


BJD was hurt, i assume, that an alliance with BJP was brought into play for few hours.