India

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 28, 2024 6:00:08 GMT ibfc said:

Apr 27, 2024 20:17:10 GMT rcronald said:

I’m surprised by the massive drop in Pathanamthitta. It’s supposed to be a competitive 3-way race and has a large Christian population.

If this is an indication of low Christian turnout then the BJP is going to finally win a seat in Kerala.

ibfc how did the election in Kerala go?

Christian turnout has collapsed in Kerala. Massive out migration coupled with disgust at Congress’ pandering to Muslims along with a lack of inclination to vote for the BJP has caused this.

Where are they migrating to?

[ibfc]

Apr 28, 2024 7:28:54 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Apr 28, 2024 6:00:08 GMT ibfc said:

Christian turnout has collapsed in Kerala. Massive out migration coupled with disgust at Congress’ pandering to Muslims along with a lack of inclination to vote for the BJP has caused this.

Where are they migrating to?

Canada, UK, Australia and the US in that order. Actually UK is a bit of a special case as it’s mostly nurses who are migrating there.

[rcronald]

Reports of violence in West Bengal, which isn’t surprising at all.
SP crying fraud in UP, which seems to suggest a strong BJP performance there.

[rcronald]

It seems like the elections is not going as expected.
What do you think happened (or is happening), and is the BJP/NDA bleeding to the point of hung parliament territory? ibfc

[iain]

May 12, 2024 18:25:08 GMT rcronald said:

It seems like the elections is not going as expected.
What do you think happened (or is happening), and is the BJP/NDA bleeding to the point of hung parliament territory? ibfc

What makes you think the election isn’t going as expected?

[rcronald]

May 14, 2024 23:51:26 GMT iain said:

May 12, 2024 18:25:08 GMT rcronald said:

It seems like the elections is not going as expected.
What do you think happened (or is happening), and is the BJP/NDA bleeding to the point of hung parliament territory? ibfc

What makes you think the election isn’t going as expected?

1.Increasingly aggressive speeches by Modi (which admittedly, could be because the first 2 stages were in the more secular south) 2.The way English language Indian sites/papers are covering the election (could be wishful thinking by them) 3.betting/stock market 4.Low turnout in BJP strongholds

[The Bishop]

If this election does turn out less well "than expected" for the BJP (of course, it would require one of the miracles of our age for them not to clearly win it) then I do wonder if Modi publicly saying he wanted the biggest blowout ever might be a factor. I did say it appeared just a tad hubristic at the time....

[Georg Ebner]

May 15, 2024 11:21:05 GMT The Bishop said:

If this election does turn out less well "than expected" for the BJP (of course, it would require one of the miracles of our age for them not to clearly win it) then I do wonder if Modi publicly saying he wanted the biggest blowout ever might be a factor. I did say it appeared just a tad hubristic at the time....

INDIA campaigned on Modi intending to abolish the quotas/reservations by changing the constitution. What was immediately ruled out by BJP, but brought them into defensive.
Though the real reason for an underPerFormance would be "the economy, stupid": By BJP being branded as the party of the urban rich a la 2004. Their image is better than 20 years ago, but there is a certain clandestine (i.e. publicly unarticulated) disSatisFaction of many with the present economical situation.

[rcronald]

May 16, 2024 11:58:49 GMT Georg Ebner said:

May 15, 2024 11:21:05 GMT The Bishop said:

If this election does turn out less well "than expected" for the BJP (of course, it would require one of the miracles of our age for them not to clearly win it) then I do wonder if Modi publicly saying he wanted the biggest blowout ever might be a factor. I did say it appeared just a tad hubristic at the time....

INDIA campaigned on Modi intending to abolish the quotas/reservations by changing the constitution. What was immediately ruled out by BJP, but brought them into defensive.
Though the real reason for an underPerFormance would be "the economy, stupid": By BJP being branded as the party of the urban rich a la 2004. Their image is better than 20 years ago, but there is a certain clandestine (i.e. publicly unarticulated) disSatisFaction of many with the present economical situation.

I wish they had the bollocks to abolish the quota/reservations system.

[rcronald]

People rightfully talked about Boris’ lies, but I can’t think of any politician who lies more than some of the Indian opposition leaders, especially Kejriwal (yes, even more than Donald Trump).

[ibfc]

May 16, 2024 12:48:11 GMT rcronald said:

People rightfully talked about Boris’ lies, but I can’t think of any politician who lies more than some of the Indian opposition leaders, especially Kejriwal (yes, even more than Donald Trump).

Kejriwal is an amateur compared to Rahul Gandhi.

[rcronald]

May 16, 2024 13:47:25 GMT ibfc said:

May 16, 2024 12:48:11 GMT rcronald said:

People rightfully talked about Boris’ lies, but I can’t think of any politician who lies more than some of the Indian opposition leaders, especially Kejriwal (yes, even more than Donald Trump).

Kejriwal is an amateur compared to Rahul Gandhi.

But Rahul is a joker and deeply unserious.

Btw, is the feeling on the ground as bad (bad as in a narrow majority) for the NDA as sites like India Today and the Print make it seem?

[ibfc]

May 16, 2024 13:48:28 GMT rcronald said:

May 16, 2024 13:47:25 GMT ibfc said:

Kejriwal is an amateur compared to Rahul Gandhi.

But Rahul is a joker and deeply unserious.

Btw, is the feeling on the ground as bad (bad as in a narrow majority) for the NDA as sites like India Today and the Print make it seem?

On the ground yes, in private and leaked polling no. Opposition supporters are disproportionately more vocal.

[ibfc]

May 16, 2024 13:48:28 GMT rcronald said:

May 16, 2024 13:47:25 GMT ibfc said:

Kejriwal is an amateur compared to Rahul Gandhi.

But Rahul is a joker and deeply unserious.

Btw, is the feeling on the ground as bad (bad as in a narrow majority) for the NDA as sites like India Today and the Print make it seem?

Rahul is not unserious. He’s determined to turn India into a Venezuela without the oil.

[rcronald]

May 16, 2024 13:52:14 GMT ibfc said:

May 16, 2024 13:48:28 GMT rcronald said:

But Rahul is a joker and deeply unserious.

Btw, is the feeling on the ground as bad (bad as in a narrow majority) for the NDA as sites like India Today and the Print make it seem?

Rahul is not unserious. He’s determined to turn India into a Venezuela without the oil.

He inherited his mother’s, and great grandfather’s delusional far left views instead of his father’s and grandmother’s relative pragmatism.


I don’t know why, but Kejrival is letting off very very bad/sinister ‘vibes’, Rahul just seems stupid.

[ibfc]

May 16, 2024 13:53:45 GMT rcronald said:

May 16, 2024 13:52:14 GMT ibfc said:

Rahul is not unserious. He’s determined to turn India into a Venezuela without the oil.

He inherited his mother’s, and great grandfather’s delusional far left views instead of his father’s and grandmother’s relative pragmatism.


I don’t know why, but Kejrival is letting off very very bad/sinister ‘vibes’, Rahul just seems stupid.

His grandmother was arguably far more delusional and definitely more destructive on the economic front than his great grandfather IMO. His father was low IQ while his mother probably was just a standard issue European social democrat which of course was not what India needed at its stage of development. But all of the above were definitely well intentioned. Rahul is more like the Joker.

[rcronald]

May 16, 2024 13:51:18 GMT ibfc said:

May 16, 2024 13:48:28 GMT rcronald said:

But Rahul is a joker and deeply unserious.

Btw, is the feeling on the ground as bad (bad as in a narrow majority) for the NDA as sites like India Today and the Print make it seem?

On the ground yes, in private and leaked polling no. Opposition supporters are disproportionately more vocal.

hopefully the private polls are correct. Outside of the usual suspects (like punjub), are there any states where the NDA is genuinely in trouble? I heard the Maharashtra, Bihar, and Jharkhand seem like the most troublesome.

[rcronald]

May 16, 2024 13:57:53 GMT ibfc said:

May 16, 2024 13:53:45 GMT rcronald said:

He inherited his mother’s, and great grandfather’s delusional far left views instead of his father’s and grandmother’s relative pragmatism.


I don’t know why, but Kejrival is letting off very very bad/sinister ‘vibes’, Rahul just seems stupid.

His grandmother was arguably far more delusional and definitely more destructive on the economic front than his great grandfather IMO. His father was low IQ while his mother probably was just a standard issue European social democrat which of course was not what India needed at its stage of development. But all of the above were definitely well intentioned. Rahul is more like the Joker.

Oh, I referred to social views, not economic.

[ibfc]

May 16, 2024 12:43:20 GMT rcronald said:

May 16, 2024 11:58:49 GMT Georg Ebner said:

INDIA campaigned on Modi intending to abolish the quotas/reservations by changing the constitution. What was immediately ruled out by BJP, but brought them into defensive.
Though the real reason for an underPerFormance would be "the economy, stupid": By BJP being branded as the party of the urban rich a la 2004. Their image is better than 20 years ago, but there is a certain clandestine (i.e. publicly unarticulated) disSatisFaction of many with the present economical situation.

I wish they had the bollocks to abolish the quota/reservations system.

Honestly, the system works and is required in such an unequal country. It is much better than the subjective kind of affirmative action you see in the West. Everyone knows what’s required and the criteria is objective.

[rcronald]

May 16, 2024 14:00:25 GMT ibfc said:

May 16, 2024 12:43:20 GMT rcronald said:

I wish they had the bollocks to abolish the quota/reservations system.

Honestly, the system works and is required in such an unequal country. It is much better than the subjective kind of affirmative action you see in the West. Everyone knows what’s required and the criteria is objective.

But what happens to poor regular caste people?

(Fighting extreme poverty should be the goal, not elevating Dalits. But I guess that I’m not Indian, so my knowledge is very limited).