India

[rcronald]

Apr 19, 2024 21:08:52 GMT ibfc said:

Apr 19, 2024 20:27:11 GMT rcronald said:

My source was The Hindustan Times. But I noticed that some other sources put the turnout at 67% and without a constituency by constituency breakdown.

So the state election official gave a press conference where he gave some numbers which were prima facie absurd but were obviously reported by the media. The ECI actually has an app which shows turnout throughout the day but unfortunately it’s geo blocked outside India. The numbers on the app were at odds with what was stated in the press conference and turned out to be correct as they are directly fed in by the Returning Officers at the level of each assembly constituency.

I have a VPN, so geo blocking is not a problem.

[rcronald]

When are the results for the state assemblies in Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh supposed to be released?

[ibfc]

2nd June for Arunachal and 4th June for Sikkim.

[The Bishop]

That's rather a long wait!

[rcronald]

Apr 21, 2024 7:46:26 GMT ibfc said:

2nd June for Arunachal and 4th June for Sikkim.

So it is going to be released with the Lok Sasha results? I guess does make some sense…

The AP state results are going to get released in early June as well?

[ibfc]

All results were supposed to be released together with the Lok Sabha on 4th June but there was some legal requirement for Arunachal to be released earlier due to the current assembly’s tenure getting over. Arunachal politicos are not happy as they’ll have to spend twice for victory celebrations

[The Bishop]

Seriously, this forum would literally be crawling up the walls if we had to wait that long for the results of UK elections

[Georg Ebner]

Publication of opinionPolls is no longer allowed until June. Here an overView:

[Georg Ebner]

% as You can see, most of these pollsters do not even see NDA above 400 MPs, let alone BJP on its own (as Modi declared as goal).

[ibfc]

To clarify Modi’s goal is 370 for bjp and 400 for the nda though I doubt either are possible. Of all these polls, only C-Voter is remotely reliable. Some of these are outright jokers like ETG and I genuinely haven’t heard of the last two. Pollstrat claims to have done 2.6 million samples but even if true, it’s through phone and phone polling has a very bad record in India. Have personally experienced it.

[rcronald]

Apr 22, 2024 4:09:12 GMT ibfc said:

To clarify Modi’s goal is 370 for bjp and 400 for the nda though I doubt either are possible. Of all these polls, only C-Voter is remotely reliable. Some of these are outright jokers like ETG and I genuinely haven’t heard of the last two. Pollstrat claims to have done 2.6 million samples but even if true, it’s through phone and phone polling has a very bad record in India. Have personally experienced it.

The 370 goal is practically impossible, and the 400 goal seems unlikely.

Would you say that the BJP and NDA are more likely to increase their majority, or not?

[uthacalthing]

Apr 19, 2024 11:47:20 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 8, 2024 17:30:01 GMT uthacalthing said:

I am listening to our metropolitan liberal media trying to cope with the popularity that Modi enjoys.

Tap water.
Electricity
Anti-Muslim sentiment
New airports

I wish I could vote for him

As was noted by me in the other Indian thread, only one of those 4 is "culture war". Its the icing on the cake, but all icing and no cake leaves you feeling slightly sick.

None of them give a a flying F about net zero or our precious greenbelt and a cake with no icing does not win bakeoff.  

[Georg Ebner]

Apr 22, 2024 4:09:12 GMT ibfc said:

To clarify Modi’s goal is 370 for bjp and 400 for the nda though I doubt either are possible. Of all these polls, only C-Voter is remotely reliable. Some of these are outright jokers like ETG and I genuinely haven’t heard of the last two. Pollstrat claims to have done 2.6 million samples but even if true, it’s through phone and phone polling has a very bad record in India. Have personally experienced it.

Yes, hard to believe. Yet, then Mr.Modi's strategy of deenergizing the opPosition might deliver him a victory - but result in him becoming (despite all personal popularity) a lame duck, who would have to witness the fights of the 2 diadochs, wouldn't he? (Inclusive scratches by bringing the less popular one to power.)

[rcronald]

Turnout has been lower than in 2014&2019. Who’s not turning out this time, BJP voters, or opposition voters?

[Georg Ebner]

Apr 27, 2024 11:47:07 GMT rcronald said:

Turnout has been lower than in 2014&2019. Who’s not turning out this time, BJP voters, or opposition voters?

In phase 1 the deCrease affected more BJP-areas:



But that's not necessarily bad news for BJP - it could be INDIA-supporters resigning and staying at home?

[Georg Ebner]

Phase II:

Southern Karnataka has traditionally a high turnOut. Is the inCrease caused by the Vokkaligas? Or by the strength of JD(S) in the territory of old Mysore? Or is it the imPact of BangaloreMetro?

[rcronald]

Apr 27, 2024 20:08:34 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Phase II:

Southern Karnataka has traditionally a high turnOut. Is the inCrease caused by the Vokkaligas? Or by the strength of JD(S) in the territory of old Mysore? Or is it the imPact of BangaloreMetro?

I’m surprised by the massive drop in Pathanamthitta. It’s supposed to be a competitive 3-way race and has a large Christian population.

If this is an indication of low Christian turnout then the BJP is going to finally win a seat in Kerala.

ibfc how did the election in Kerala go?

[rcronald]

Apr 27, 2024 20:08:34 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Phase II:

Southern Karnataka has traditionally a high turnOut. Is the inCrease caused by the Vokkaligas? Or by the strength of JD(S) in the territory of old Mysore? Or is it the imPact of BangaloreMetro?

I wonder if the high turnout in Karnatala has anything to do with anti-incumbency, the Congress CM said/did some very stupid things over the last couple of months that probably angered Hindus.
On the other hand, Kerala recorded a big drop and the anti-incumbency mood is supposed to be strong there because the state is now on the brink of bankruptcy (from what I understand) because of CPI(M) mismanagement.

[ibfc]

Apr 27, 2024 20:17:10 GMT rcronald said:

Apr 27, 2024 20:08:34 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Phase II:

Southern Karnataka has traditionally a high turnOut. Is the inCrease caused by the Vokkaligas? Or by the strength of JD(S) in the territory of old Mysore? Or is it the imPact of BangaloreMetro?

I’m surprised by the massive drop in Pathanamthitta. It’s supposed to be a competitive 3-way race and has a large Christian population.

If this is an indication of low Christian turnout then the BJP is going to finally win a seat in Kerala.

ibfc how did the election in Kerala go?

Christian turnout has collapsed in Kerala. Massive out migration coupled with disgust at Congress’ pandering to Muslims along with a lack of inclination to vote for the BJP has caused this.

[rcronald]

Apr 28, 2024 6:00:08 GMT ibfc said:

Apr 27, 2024 20:17:10 GMT rcronald said:

I’m surprised by the massive drop in Pathanamthitta. It’s supposed to be a competitive 3-way race and has a large Christian population.

If this is an indication of low Christian turnout then the BJP is going to finally win a seat in Kerala.

ibfc how did the election in Kerala go?

Christian turnout has collapsed in Kerala. Massive out migration coupled with disgust at Congress’ pandering to Muslims along with a lack of inclination to vote for the BJP has caused this.

So the BJP is in a strong position in constituencies where they needed a low Christian turnout to beat congress? Since CPI(M) is heavily reliant on Hindus (and atheists), I suppose that they are likely to win more seats than expected?

Edit: I wonder what how well the BJP would have done with Christian voters in Kerala if N. Biren Singh didn’t botch the Manipur situation so badly…