India

[rcronald]

Dec 5, 2023 18:29:50 GMT ibfc said:

Revanth Reddy, the state INC chief will be the next CM of Telangana. Started his career in the ABVP, the student wing of the RSS before joining the TRS, the TDP and then INC. He’s considered to be the driving force behind the party’s win in the state and is also considered to be very close to TDP Chief, Chandrababu Naidu.

From what I’ve read, he’s also a vile man.

[rcronald]

ibfc

Do you know how the situation is on the ground in the states of Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu,Kerala,Telengana, and Orissa?

I Would also love to know the situation with Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram, Suresh Gopi in Thrissur, Annamalai in Coimbatore, and OPS in Ramanathapuram.

[rcronald]

Apr 8, 2024 17:30:01 GMT uthacalthing said:

I am listening to our metropolitan liberal media trying to cope with the popularity that Modi enjoys.

Tap water.
Electricity
Anti-Muslim sentiment
New airports

I wish I could vote for him

Forgot to mention India likely kicking out Muslim illegal immigrants in Assam while giving citizenships to Hindu and Christian illegal immigrants. 😊

[rcronald]

To the surprise of no one (who happens to follow Indian politics), reports of violence and intimidation in West Bengal.

[The Bishop]

Apr 8, 2024 17:30:01 GMT uthacalthing said:

I am listening to our metropolitan liberal media trying to cope with the popularity that Modi enjoys.

Tap water.
Electricity
Anti-Muslim sentiment
New airports

I wish I could vote for him

As was noted by me in the other Indian thread, only one of those 4 is "culture war". Its the icing on the cake, but all icing and no cake leaves you feeling slightly sick.

[rcronald]

Apr 19, 2024 11:47:20 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 8, 2024 17:30:01 GMT uthacalthing said:

I am listening to our metropolitan liberal media trying to cope with the popularity that Modi enjoys.

Tap water.
Electricity
Anti-Muslim sentiment
New airports

I wish I could vote for him

As was noted by me in the other Indian thread, only one of those 4 is "culture war". Its the icing on the cake, but all icing and no cake leaves you feeling slightly sick.

When it comes to the culture warriors, I think that people are wrong to put Bolsonaro and Trump in the same category. Trump’s win was a surprise so he couldn’t organise his administration (and more detailed proposals) fast enough for him to truly change the American economy. While Bolsonaro is simply a low IQ individual.

(Basically, Trump is much more interested in America’s economy than Bolsonaro is in Brazil’s)

[greenchristian]

Apr 19, 2024 15:12:14 GMT rcronald said:

Apr 19, 2024 11:47:20 GMT The Bishop said:

As was noted by me in the other Indian thread, only one of those 4 is "culture war". Its the icing on the cake, but all icing and no cake leaves you feeling slightly sick.

When it comes to the culture warriors, I think that people are wrong to put Bolsonaro and Trump in the same category. Trump’s win was a surprise so he couldn’t organise his administration (and more detailed proposals) fast enough for him to truly change the American economy. While Bolsonaro is simply a low IQ individual.
(Basically, Trump is much more interested in America’s economy than Bolsonaro is in Brazil’s)

Trump's failure to organise his administration has nothing to do with his win being a surprise and everything to do with the sort of person he is (one facet of which is that he seems to be a low IQ individual).

[mboy]

George W Bush was a low IQ individual, but he surrounded himself with able people who shared his goals, so his administration was effective. Trump however surrounded himself with vacuous sycophants whose only qualification was how far they could get their tongue up his rectum.

[rcronald]

Apr 19, 2024 15:18:24 GMT greenchristian said:

Apr 19, 2024 15:12:14 GMT rcronald said:

When it comes to the culture warriors, I think that people are wrong to put Bolsonaro and Trump in the same category. Trump’s win was a surprise so he couldn’t organise his administration (and more detailed proposals) fast enough for him to truly change the American economy. While Bolsonaro is simply a low IQ individual.
(Basically, Trump is much more interested in America’s economy than Bolsonaro is in Brazil’s)

Trump's failure to organise his administration has nothing to do with his win being a surprise and everything to do with the sort of person he is (one facet of which is that he seems to be a low IQ individual).

It has much more to do with him not expecting a victory and him being a narcissist than his IQ (I’m surprised that some people think that Trump is more unintelligent than Bolsonaro).

[rcronald]

It seems like the constituencies with the lowest recorded turnouts in Tamil Nadu are mostly in Chennai, and the ones highest turnouts are all in the northern half of the state.

[finsobruce]

Apr 19, 2024 15:27:34 GMT mboy said:

George W Bush was a low IQ individual, but he surrounded himself with able people who shared his goals, so his administration was effective. Trump however surrounded himself with vacuous sycophants whose only qualification was how far they could get their tongue up his rectum.

Before he fired them.

[rcronald]

It looks like the constituencies with the highest turnout jumps by far in Tamil Nadu are the ones that the NDA/BJP is targeting.

[ibfc]

Apr 19, 2024 18:26:34 GMT rcronald said:

It looks like the constituencies with the highest turnout jumps by far in Tamil Nadu are the ones that the NDA/BJP is targeting.

This chart is not correct. There was some confusion. As a Malayali, I’ll just put it down to typical Tamilian incompetence.

[ibfc]

Apr 18, 2024 7:26:21 GMT rcronald said:

ibfc

Do you know how the situation is on the ground in the states of Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu,Kerala,Telengana, and Orissa?

I Would also love to know the situation with Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram, Suresh Gopi in Thrissur, Annamalai in Coimbatore, and OPS in Ramanathapuram.

Annamalai is mostly losing, OPS definitely losing and Suresh Gopi should win. Tharoor is in the fight of his life and it might come down to differential turnout though I am optimistic he’ll be gone.

[Sibboleth]

Charges were dropped in the end of course, but the business with his late wife, specifically how she came to be so, always does leave something of a bad smell.

[ibfc]

Especially as she purportedly committed suicide a day after claiming on live TV that she was going to expose a lot of powerful people the next day.

[rcronald]

Apr 19, 2024 20:06:45 GMT ibfc said:

Apr 19, 2024 18:26:34 GMT rcronald said:

It looks like the constituencies with the highest turnout jumps by far in Tamil Nadu are the ones that the NDA/BJP is targeting.

This chart is not correct. There was some confusion. As a Malayali, I’ll just put it down to typical Tamilian incompetence.

My source was The Hindustan Times. But I noticed that some other sources put the turnout at 67% and without a constituency by constituency breakdown.

[rcronald]

Apr 19, 2024 20:08:24 GMT ibfc said:

Apr 18, 2024 7:26:21 GMT rcronald said:

ibfc

Do you know how the situation is on the ground in the states of Maharashtra,Tamil Nadu,Kerala,Telengana, and Orissa?

I Would also love to know the situation with Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram, Suresh Gopi in Thrissur, Annamalai in Coimbatore, and OPS in Ramanathapuram.

Annamalai is mostly losing, OPS definitely losing and Suresh Gopi should win. Tharoor is in the fight of his life and it might come down to differential turnout though I am optimistic he’ll be gone.

Annamalai losing would be unfortunate, as he seems like a savvy, charismatic leader, and a talented orator.

Kerala has a decent amount of seats that the BJP lost by less than 15% in 2019, so maybe (and hopefully!) you’d be able to score some upsets.

2 seats in Tamil Nadu, and 1 seat in Kerala that I forgot to ask about:
1. Anil Antony in Pathanamthitta
2. T. R. Paarivendhar in Perambalur
3. Pon Radhakrishnan in Kanniyakumari

[ibfc]

Apr 19, 2024 20:37:14 GMT rcronald said:

Apr 19, 2024 20:08:24 GMT ibfc said:

Annamalai is mostly losing, OPS definitely losing and Suresh Gopi should win. Tharoor is in the fight of his life and it might come down to differential turnout though I am optimistic he’ll be gone.

Annamalai losing would be unfortunate, as he seems like a savvy, charismatic leader, and a talented orator.

Kerala has a decent amount of seats that the BJP lost by less than 15% in 2019, so maybe (and hopefully!) you’d be able to score some upsets.

2 seats in Tamil Nadu, and 1 seat in Kerala that I forgot to ask about:
1. Anil Antony in Pathanamthitta
2. T. R. Paarivendhar in Perambalur
3. Pon Radhakrishnan in Kanniyakumari

1. Anil is not a good fit for the seat but there’s a reasonable undercurrent in his favour due to heavy anti incumbency against the incumbent but I expect him to lose.
2. Paarivendhar is definitely losing.
3. Kanyakumari is all down to differential voter turn out between Hindus and Christians and if the Christian vote splits. If the latter doesn’t happen, congress will win and if it happens, BJP. Trivandrum is much the same actually but to a lesser degree. It’s basically Kanyakumari with a large heavily Hindu city.

[ibfc]

Apr 19, 2024 20:27:11 GMT rcronald said:

Apr 19, 2024 20:06:45 GMT ibfc said:

This chart is not correct. There was some confusion. As a Malayali, I’ll just put it down to typical Tamilian incompetence.

My source was The Hindustan Times. But I noticed that some other sources put the turnout at 67% and without a constituency by constituency breakdown.

So the state election official gave a press conference where he gave some numbers which were prima facie absurd but were obviously reported by the media. The ECI actually has an app which shows turnout throughout the day but unfortunately it’s geo blocked outside India. The numbers on the app were at odds with what was stated in the press conference and turned out to be correct as they are directly fed in by the Returning Officers at the level of each assembly constituency.