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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2015 18:41:02 GMT
The EU, IMF and other creditors better start preparing negotiations on the current bailout conditions or prepare for Grexit.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 10, 2015 19:32:23 GMT
The EU, IMF and other creditors better start preparing negotiations on the current bailout conditions or prepare for Grexit. So rooting for Eurocrats against self-determination of people? Sure you're in the right party? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2015 19:49:41 GMT
The EU, IMF and other creditors better start preparing negotiations on the current bailout conditions or prepare for Grexit. So rooting for Eurocrats against self-determination of people? Sure you're in the right party? it was more a statment of fact rather than a opinion. Greece should never have been let in the Euro in the first place and politics got in the way of economics. I am rooting for the Greek people and I have suggested they should leave the EU, devalue their new currency and become competitive in the export markets and get the tourists back. |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 10, 2015 21:12:15 GMT
Pulse RC poll, fieldwork 6-9 Jan (changes since last Pulse RC poll 5-6 Jan) SYRIZA 29.5% (+0.5) ND 26% (+0.5) PASOK 5.5% (nc) Golden Dawn 5.5% (nc) To Potami 5.5% (nc) KKE 4.5% (-0.5) Independent Greeks 3.0% (nc) Kinima 2.5% (+2.5) Anti-Capitalist Left 1% (-) LAOS 1% (-) www.e-typos.com/gr/vouleutikes-ekloges-2015/arthro/112117/dimoskopisi-gia-ton-ettk-thetika-proskeimenoi-sti-nd-oi-anapofasistoi/ One interesting point in the poll is that they asked undecided voters which party they felt closest to and how they voted in the last 2012 national and 2014 Euro elections. The results are show in the bottom left and bottom right panels of the graphic below  as you can see ND has a small advantage amongst the undecided which may produce a small swing to it on the day but it does look to me as though it would be enough to catch up with SYRIZA. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jan 11, 2015 1:51:47 GMT
I think that the Greeks are working on the basis that no matter what they bloody well vote for it is little more than a minor irritant in the bigger scheme of things and realistically that is true. Greece represents about 2% of the Eurozone's GDP.....chicken feed. However, it seems that Frau Merkel who, let's face it, is the one calling the shots on this, is making all the right noises for a Grexit if that is how it goes. The real issue is France and Holland, who both have huge economic problems and of course the ever growing turd in the water pipe, Italy. Italy has seen no growth since it joined the Euro. Its debts amount to about 135% of GDP with deflation galloping towards it at an alarming rate, if it hasn't already turned up. That will of course mean that its debt burden is about to start increasing even if it isn't already. The Eurozone can't bail Italy out, it is simply too big. Prepare for Large scale QE It's a question, also, of how long Finland will want to keep chipping in. There are periodic noises from there. Once people say no more, that's it, no matter how much the Germans want it. However, two years ago I forecast the death of the Euro. I was wrong. |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 11, 2015 16:35:14 GMT
New poll from Alco. fieldwork 7-9 Jan (changes in brackets from last poll 4-6 Jan) Note : these figures include blank/abstain and so are different from the poll recorded on page 8 of this thread SYRIZA 31.2 (-0.4) ND 28.0% (-0.6) To Potami 4.5% (+0.3) Golden Dawn 4.2% (-0.1) PASOK 4.0% (+0.4) KKE 3.7% (-0.1) Kinima 2.4% (-0.1) Independent Greeks 2.2% (nc) Other 4.4% (+1.2) Blank 2.2% (-0.5) Abstain 3.6% (-0.2) Undecided 9.6% (-0.1) www.enikonomia.gr/timeliness/10920,Provadisma_32_gia_tonSYRIZA_se_dhmosk.html So two weeks to go and still no sign of SYRIZA's lead narrowing. |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 11, 2015 19:35:34 GMT
It seems that people are giving up hope that New Democracy can win the election www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/10/greece-election-u-turn-antonis-samaras-syrizaIt seems that establishment figures are now hoping that To Potami will keep Greece in the Euro. An interesting article here from Pravda on the Hudson the New York Times the American establishment mouthpiece independent liberal newspaper. The idea is that if SYRIZA fall short of an overall majority and should need co-operation from To Potami that the latter party should insist that SYRIZA 'asks nicely' for an extension to the existing bailout plan and that if SYRIZA fails to do a 180 degree U turn that To Potami forces another election. The hope is then that that would allow time for 'moderate elements' in SYRIZA to arrange a U turn that could be performed 'without too much loss of face'. If that happens the creditors should agree to stick to the existing bailout plan 'as long a SYRIZA asks nicely'. The NYT doesn't allow the copying and pasting of quotes from the article but do read the whole thing to get an idea of the tone www.nytimes.com/2015/01/12/business/international/after-elections-greece-will-be-in-race-against-time.html |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 11, 2015 19:50:08 GMT
It's a question, also, of how long Finland will want to keep chipping in. There are periodic noises from there. Once people say no more, that's it, no matter how much the Germans want it. However, two years ago I forecast the death of the Euro. I was wrong. If you are wondering why Greece is still in the Euro despite all the problems caused read the NYT article I linked to in the last post and note the tone of the article. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 11, 2015 20:33:13 GMT
Well, that's quite obvious. They don't want a country succeeding to get out of the crisis by another way than austerity.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 11, 2015 20:40:52 GMT
Well, that's quite obvious. They don't want a country succeeding to get out of the crisis by another way than austerity. You think a society based on sitting in the village square drinking coffee all day, living on borrowed money you don't intend to pay back, would succeed? |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 11, 2015 20:44:59 GMT
Well, that's quite obvious. They don't want a country succeeding to get out of the crisis by another way than austerity. You think a society based on sitting in the village square drinking coffee all day, living on borrowed money you don't intend to pay back, would succeed? Or they could leave the Euro. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 11, 2015 22:24:35 GMT
It's a question, also, of how long Finland will want to keep chipping in. There are periodic noises from there. Once people say no more, that's it, no matter how much the Germans want it. However, two years ago I forecast the death of the Euro. I was wrong. Yes, the significance of Finland is one we often forget. On the Euro front I don't think that you could have reasonably have predicted the lengths that the politicians would go to, in defiance of all logic, in order to keep the show on the road. The misery inflicted on people in Greece and elsewhere in the name of the Euro was obscene. Of course what the politicians fear most is not Greece baling out and failing but baling out and succeeding. If they do then the whole project is at risk.....so they would rather keep them in at virtually any cost. It's a mess and despite the idiocy and stupidity of some of its supporters, it isn't going away. There are still those like that cretin Mandelson, Paddy Ashdown, and Charles Kennedy who think we should still join it, if not today. They never answer the question about where we would be if we had joined when they last advised it. Quite right AC. I have had first-hand experience of Italy since well before joining the euro to now and I can attest that their economy stalled and unemployment grew virtually from Day 1. It has been a complete didaster for them and continues to be so, yet all of the left and much of the centre and centre right still support this disease in their midst. Truly the European Experiment is the German revenge for the two wars, for by this simple expedient they are gradually ruining every single competitor except us. Of course it replaces war! It is so much cheaper and so much more effective. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 11, 2015 23:25:59 GMT
Well, that's quite obvious. They don't want a country succeeding to get out of the crisis by another way than austerity. You think a society based on sitting in the village square drinking coffee all day, living on borrowed money you don't intend to pay back, would succeed? Leaving the Euro would allow to get out of the crisis without austerity, but obviously acting that way wouldn't. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 11, 2015 23:57:47 GMT
You think a society based on sitting in the village square drinking coffee all day, living on borrowed money you don't intend to pay back, would succeed? Leaving the Euro would allow to get out of the crisis without austerity, but obviously acting that way wouldn't. The austerity is still continuing in Iceland. And I suppose Detroit's problems could all be solved by abandoning the dollar and introducing their own currency? |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jan 12, 2015 0:32:47 GMT
You think a society based on sitting in the village square drinking coffee all day, living on borrowed money you don't intend to pay back, would succeed? Leaving the Euro would allow to get out of the crisis without austerity, but obviously acting that way wouldn't. I agree that Greece need to leave the Euro but it is not a silver bullet. Whatever happens there will be hardships ahead for the Greek people as the lifestyle that they had become used to was unsustainable and is not coming back. Younger Greeks will bare a disproportionate cost in paying the price for their parents selfishness. Such an injustice will of course not be limited to Greece. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 12, 2015 0:54:09 GMT
For Greece, it may help if they start to treat taxation as something which isn't an optional hazard easily avoided, and sort out the endemic corruption. At least Syriza might have a better chance of doing that, because the current government is essentially one of the two old parties backed up by the remnant of the other, and both of them were responsible.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 12, 2015 1:42:13 GMT
Leaving the Euro would allow to get out of the crisis without austerity, but obviously acting that way wouldn't. I agree that Greece need to leave the Euro but it is not a silver bullet. Whatever happens there will be hardships ahead for the Greek people as the lifestyle that they had become used to was unsustainable and is not coming back. Younger Greeks will bare a disproportionate cost in paying the price for their parents selfishness. Such an injustice will of course not be limited to Greece. Yes, it will be hard, but less hard than it will be inside Euro. |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 12, 2015 4:41:19 GMT
You think a society based on sitting in the village square drinking coffee all day, living on borrowed money you don't intend to pay back, would succeed? Leaving the Euro would allow to get out of the crisis without austerity, but obviously acting that way wouldn't. No it wouldn't. It would create it's own set of equally awful but completely different problems. This is a crisis the Greeks have brought upon themselves by endlessly voting in governments that spent money they didn't have to fund things they couldn't afford all while making no real effort on actually collecting taxes. They also lied to get into the Euro so blaming it on a currency they should never have been part of is a little rich. The entire Greek political class has failed a population that for whatever reason kept voting for their false prospectus. More fool them. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 12, 2015 11:27:34 GMT
Leaving the Euro would allow to get out of the crisis without austerity, but obviously acting that way wouldn't. No it wouldn't. It would create it's own set of equally awful but completely different problems. This is a crisis the Greeks have brought upon themselves by endlessly voting in governments that spent money they didn't have to fund things they couldn't afford all while making no real effort on actually collecting taxes. They also lied to get into the Euro so blaming it on a currency they should never have been part of is a little rich. The entire Greek political class has failed a population that for whatever reason kept voting for their false prospectus. More fool them. I worry more about unemployment and purchasing power (an issue touching millions) than I do about their debt (an issue touching a few institutions). Yes, there is huge structural issues, like the huge tax-evasion, but austerity and reducing the budget will not reduce tax-evasion nor create jobs. |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 12, 2015 12:00:08 GMT
No it wouldn't. It would create it's own set of equally awful but completely different problems. This is a crisis the Greeks have brought upon themselves by endlessly voting in governments that spent money they didn't have to fund things they couldn't afford all while making no real effort on actually collecting taxes. They also lied to get into the Euro so blaming it on a currency they should never have been part of is a little rich. The entire Greek political class has failed a population that for whatever reason kept voting for their false prospectus. More fool them. I worry more about unemployment and purchasing power (an issue touching millions) than I do about their debt (an issue touching a few institutions). Yes, there is huge structural issues, like the huge tax-evasion, but austerity and reducing the budget will not reduce tax-evasion nor create jobs. I consider that the disasterous effects of Greece leaving the Euro would possibly make unemployment worse and certainly decrease the spending power of everyone using the 'neodrachma' or whatever they would call it due to it essentially being a valueless currency and the people's savings therefore being devalued to a massive degree, let alone the inevitable capital flight. The problem with the debt is it directly affects the government's ability to have money to actually do anything they need to future proof their economy and put it on a more stable footing. The problem with the profligance of successive Greek governments is they've screwed their economy over so much that they have no choice but austerity unless they wish to permenantly (or certainly for the next 30-40 years) impoverish their country. They do need to invest as well (as pure austerity never works) but this way they have a way out within a decade. |
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