Greek General Election, January 2015

[Davıd Boothroyd]

State of the also-rans as of now. SYRIZA and New Democracy share first and second everywhere.

Golden Dawn highest vote is 10.6% in Lakonia. Their vote is down in all but 13 districts.
To Potami have 13% in Rodopis and 11.6% in Chanion (both previously PASOK strongholds).
The KKE's highest vote is 14.3% in Samou but that's also their worst in terms of change on 2012. Their vote has risen in most districts.
PASOK have exceeded 10% in one district - Lakonias - and it's also their third best in terms of change. But they have lost votes everywhere, down 17% in two of their former strongholds.
The Independent Greeks highest votes are just over 6%. They have lost vote share everywhere.
The Democratic Socialists Network has 5.9% in its top district.
The Union of Centrists have just over 5% in their best district, but their vote is up everywhere.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jan 25, 2015 19:37:51 GMT Devonian said:

Syriza plus Independent Greeks works, if bailout opposition is the key motivator.

[Deleted]

Didn't the left use Hollande's presidential victory in France as the end for austerity and a new dawn?

The people of Greece have spoken and I wish them the best of luck, as I can only see the situation getting worse when SYRZIA cannot deliver on most of their promises.

[Robert Waller]

Official site projection at present:
Syriza 148
ND 78
XA 17
River 16
KKE 15
PASOK 13
ANEL 13
Others 0

The way it's trending, Syriza may go up a bit and ND down a couple, so the Open Europe projection above doesn't look far out.

[Devonian]

[Pete Whitehead]

Can someone explain how Syriza ends up with 4 out of 5 seats in the Dodacenese from getting 33% of the vote and a fractional lead over ND? I'm sure its something to do with the winners bonus system but don't understand how that applies at a local level

[maxque]

Jan 25, 2015 20:53:04 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Can someone explain how Syriza ends up with 4 out of 5 seats in the Dodacenese from getting 33% of the vote and a fractional lead over ND? I'm sure its something to do with the winners bonus system but don't understand how that applies at a local level

Regional distribution has nothing to do with regional results. Only national results are used to calculate how much seats parties will have and they are spread in the regions through complex formulas.

It often happens than the party which finished 2nd in a region has more seats.

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks - yes its a weird system I've never been able to get my head round it

[iain]

Why bother giving out seats to regions then?

[dizz]

BBC are reporting that this will send shockwaves around Europe.

Given that every single poll had Syriza ahead & the most recent polls look very accurate, it's hard to see how....

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jan 25, 2015 21:26:02 GMT dizz said:

BBC are reporting that this will send shockwaves around Europe.

Given that every single poll had Syriza ahead & the most recent polls look very accurate, it's hard to see how....

I can only presume that it makes the BBC look like they are doing their job properly by "breaking" a story obvious to all of us here.

This election, for better or worse, is going to be one of the largest exercises in making one's bed and lying in it.

[Deleted]

The Greeks deserve everything that is due to come at them.

[Andrew_S]

Jan 25, 2015 21:35:48 GMT joe said:

The Greeks deserve everything that is due to come at them.

They were idiots for thinking the Germans would put Greece before Germany.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Just gone midnight and the first district is complete - Zakynthou, won by SYRIZA.

[Devonian]

Jan 25, 2015 21:26:02 GMT dizz said:

BBC are reporting that this will send shockwaves around Europe.

Given that every single poll had Syriza ahead & the most recent polls look very accurate, it's hard to see how....

How was the BBC supposed to know what was going on in a far distant land beyond the M25. With the sole honourable exception of the Daily/Sunday Politics show BBC news coverage of EU politics outside Britain is abysmal. Their coverage of US politics is better despite the fact that we are not one of the United States and we are, whether we like it or not, a member state of the EU.

[Richard Allen]

Jan 25, 2015 21:15:58 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Angela Merkel gets the Result from Athens.

Funny as this maybe it misses the point politically. Merkel will act in the interests if Germany, or at very least what she perceives as in the interests of Germany, and if that means Greece eventually leaving the Euro then she will accept it. The people what will be truly worried about this will be the staunch pro-EU ideologues.

[Devonian]

Jan 21, 2015 21:58:49 GMT Richard Allen said:

The last thing SYRIZA want is to just get an overall majority. Some of their MPs might want to try governing alone which would be almost impossible.

Well in that case it looks like they've had a very lucky escape.

With 93% counted the seat projection is

SYRIZA 149
ND 76
Golden Dawn 17
The River 17
KKE 15
Independent Greeks 13
PASOK 13

That's quite a fall for PASOK to be in seventh place.

[Devonian]

The leader of Independent Greeks (ANEL), Panos Kammenos, hailed Greek voters because, “In a climate of fear and terror, they chose hope and independence.” He described ANEL as the “necessary good” for the country, saying it would help “bring the smiles back onto the faces of our children.” The main thing is “to be patriots and to pursue the good of the country.”

Potami leader Stavros Theodorakis, another possible ally of SYRIZA, said he would “not join a government with anti-Europeans.”

Repeating his party’s election slogan, Theodorakis expressed his intention “to change everything without demolishing the country.” He underlined the need for “broader coalitions.” “We congratulate Tsipras on his major victory and hope he will fulfill his pledges,” Theodorakis said.

www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_26/01/2015_546524

I would guess that the reference to "not join a government with anti-Europeans" means that Potami would not join a government that included the Independent Greeks so that SYRIZA would need to choose to join with one or the other but wouldn't be able to have both in a coalition.

[Richard Allen]

Jan 26, 2015 0:50:50 GMT Devonian said:

The leader of Independent Greeks (ANEL), Panos Kammenos, hailed Greek voters because, “In a climate of fear and terror, they chose hope and independence.” He described ANEL as the “necessary good” for the country, saying it would help “bring the smiles back onto the faces of our children.” The main thing is “to be patriots and to pursue the good of the country.”

Potami leader Stavros Theodorakis, another possible ally of SYRIZA, said he would “not join a government with anti-Europeans.”

Repeating his party’s election slogan, Theodorakis expressed his intention “to change everything without demolishing the country.” He underlined the need for “broader coalitions.” “We congratulate Tsipras on his major victory and hope he will fulfill his pledges,” Theodorakis said.

www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_26/01/2015_546524

I would guess that the reference to "not join a government with anti-Europeans" means that Potami would not join a government that included the Independent Greeks so that SYRIZA would need to choose to join with one or the other but wouldn't be able to have both in a coalition.

SYRIZA have a very strong hand for the negotiations. They only need to do a deal with any one of Pasok, the Independent Greeks or Potami to form a fairly comfortable majority government. Ideally they might prefer to join up with two of them to give a more robust majority and greater political cover but it isn't essential.

[Devonian]

Jan 26, 2015 1:00:45 GMT Richard Allen said:

Jan 26, 2015 0:50:50 GMT Devonian said:

www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_26/01/2015_546524

I would guess that the reference to "not join a government with anti-Europeans" means that Potami would not join a government that included the Independent Greeks so that SYRIZA would need to choose to join with one or the other but wouldn't be able to have both in a coalition.

SYRIZA have a very strong hand for the negotiations. They only need to do a deal with any one of Pasok, the Independent Greeks or Potami to form a fairly comfortable majority government. Ideally they might prefer to join up with two of them to give a more robust majority and greater political cover but it isn't essential.

Looks like they may have chosen the Independent Greeks

But in the early hours of Monday, even before the final votes were counted, Syriza officials said a deal had been struck with the Independent Greeks—a party that shares little common ground with Syriza except for its rejection of the austerity measures. The party, which is poised to win 13 seats in Parliament, would mean the coalition would have 162 or 163 seats—a comfortable governing majority in Greece’s 300-seat legislature.

A meeting between Mr. Tsipras and Independent Greeks party leader Panos Kammenos is scheduled to take place Monday morning, Syriza officials said.

www.wsj.com/articles/syriza-poised-for-victory-in-greek-election-1422168982