|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 3, 2015 17:08:28 GMT
Very strong FN result by local lass. Never mind the UMP central position how do we feel the ordinary UMP voters will split? I would hope that not too many would support the PS and the current economic shambles? Might it be a third drop out and a third each for PS and FN, or is that way off beam? Ifop have carried out a poll yesterday on this very question. Note this appears to be a national poll rather than a constituency poll. The first question was how should the UMP recommend people vote in the second round of the Doubs. UMP voters Should recommend vote PS 19% Should recommend vote FN 14% Should recommend neither/nor 67% The same question to UDI voters PS 38% FN 7% Neither/nor 55%  The second question asked UMP and UNI voters who they would vote for in the second round if they were voters in the constituency UMP+UDI voters PS 24% FN 28% UMP voters PS 20% FN 30% UDI voters PS 40% FN 18% Full details here www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2015/02/02/01002-20150202ARTFIG00457-sondage-deux-electeurs-de-l-ump-sur-trois-favorables-au-ni-ps-ni-fn.php |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2015 17:31:38 GMT
On those numbers the FN could win the seat.
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 3, 2015 18:06:46 GMT
Thanks Devonian. That is really interesting. So, around a half won't vote for either of the front runners from those party's members polled. That tells us quite a bit about how PS and FN are regarded by right to centre-right voters not, supporting FN normally. This could be close and is further evidence of the fact that an ever-widening group of people in France are now prepared to entertain a vote for FN.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Feb 3, 2015 18:55:16 GMT
Remain confused as to why some Kippers are so happy to identify with the FN. Dispiriting. Especially the one who supported Franco retrospectively! It's always worth remembering that a lot of people in Spain supported Franco and his legacy isn't as unpopular or as 'in-a-hurry-to-be-forgotten' as a lot of people in the UK seem to think. There are whole swathes of Spain where he's close to being well regarded (even if the social authoritarianism isn't very popular). Just because Brit tourists pick up Sur or the Olive Press on their jaunts to Andalucia and read about some village mayor in the Alpujarra renaming a street after Blas Infante rather than El Caudillo or whatever doesn't mean that this is a universally held opinion, or that organisations devoted to 'memory' are given more than short shrift by a lot of people. I'd not go into a bar and announce that I was a Falangist but it's not like people view support for some of Franco's activities with shame or opprobrium. Arguably, he set the scene for modern Spanish identity. Spain is still, even now, not sure what it thinks about the Civil War so for a UKIP person to express support for Franco is not as out of place or as unacceptable or as odd as people in the UK seem to think. It certainly doesn't mean that someone supports fascism. It's really quite odd- history is written by the victor but everyone outside of Spain seems to believe the other side of the story. I wonder if the very rapid move towards regionalism post 1978 and the consistent holding of power by the Socialists in the 1980s are the cause of this. |
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 3, 2015 21:38:48 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 3, 2015 22:18:14 GMT
Especially the one who supported Franco retrospectively! It's always worth remembering that a lot of people in Spain supported Franco and his legacy isn't as unpopular or as 'in-a-hurry-to-be-forgotten' as a lot of people in the UK seem to think. There are whole swathes of Spain where he's close to being well regarded (even if the social authoritarianism isn't very popular). Just because Brit tourists pick up Sur or the Olive Press on their jaunts to Andalucia and read about some village mayor in the Alpujarra renaming a street after Blas Infante rather than El Caudillo or whatever doesn't mean that this is a universally held opinion, or that organisations devoted to 'memory' are given more than short shrift by a lot of people. I'd not go into a bar and announce that I was a Falangist but it's not like people view support for some of Franco's activities with shame or opprobrium. Arguably, he set the scene for modern Spanish identity. Spain is still, even now, not sure what it thinks about the Civil War so for a UKIP person to express support for Franco is not as out of place or as unacceptable or as odd as people in the UK seem to think. It certainly doesn't mean that someone supports fascism. It's really quite odd- history is written by the victor but everyone outside of Spain seems to believe the other side of the story. I wonder if the very rapid move towards regionalism post 1978 and the consistent holding of power by the Socialists in the 1980s are the cause of this. There's also a strong tendency for people who were clearly not fascists, such as Salazar, to be labelled as such. |
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 5, 2015 17:54:41 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 5, 2015 19:38:03 GMT
Especially the one who supported Franco retrospectively! It's always worth remembering that a lot of people in Spain supported Franco and his legacy isn't as unpopular or as 'in-a-hurry-to-be-forgotten' as a lot of people in the UK seem to think. There are whole swathes of Spain where he's close to being well regarded (even if the social authoritarianism isn't very popular). Just because Brit tourists pick up Sur or the Olive Press on their jaunts to Andalucia and read about some village mayor in the Alpujarra renaming a street after Blas Infante rather than El Caudillo or whatever doesn't mean that this is a universally held opinion, or that organisations devoted to 'memory' are given more than short shrift by a lot of people. I'd not go into a bar and announce that I was a Falangist but it's not like people view support for some of Franco's activities with shame or opprobrium. Arguably, he set the scene for modern Spanish identity. Spain is still, even now, not sure what it thinks about the Civil War so for a UKIP person to express support for Franco is not as out of place or as unacceptable or as odd as people in the UK seem to think. It certainly doesn't mean that someone supports fascism. It's really quite odd- history is written by the victor but everyone outside of Spain seems to believe the other side of the story. I wonder if the very rapid move towards regionalism post 1978 and the consistent holding of power by the Socialists in the 1980s are the cause of this. Frankly my view is that support for Franco would have been a complete 'no-brainer' for a middle class property owner at that time. |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Feb 6, 2015 12:36:30 GMT
Especially the one who supported Franco retrospectively! It's always worth remembering that a lot of people in Spain supported Franco and his legacy isn't as unpopular or as 'in-a-hurry-to-be-forgotten' as a lot of people in the UK seem to think. There are whole swathes of Spain where he's close to being well regarded (even if the social authoritarianism isn't very popular). Just because Brit tourists pick up Sur or the Olive Press on their jaunts to Andalucia and read about some village mayor in the Alpujarra renaming a street after Blas Infante rather than El Caudillo or whatever doesn't mean that this is a universally held opinion, or that organisations devoted to 'memory' are given more than short shrift by a lot of people. I'd not go into a bar and announce that I was a Falangist but it's not like people view support for some of Franco's activities with shame or opprobrium. Arguably, he set the scene for modern Spanish identity. Spain is still, even now, not sure what it thinks about the Civil War so for a UKIP person to express support for Franco is not as out of place or as unacceptable or as odd as people in the UK seem to think. It certainly doesn't mean that someone supports fascism. It's really quite odd- history is written by the victor but everyone outside of Spain seems to believe the other side of the story. I wonder if the very rapid move towards regionalism post 1978 and the consistent holding of power by the Socialists in the 1980s are the cause of this. The areas where British tourists go are the most anti-Franco districts. Catalonia and Andalucia were always opposed. Go to Galicia or Cantabria and its quite different |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 6, 2015 18:54:21 GMT
Kippers to favour Franco wrt the Spanish Civil War is understandable. Kippers to favour the FN in France right now is dispiriting.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 6, 2015 22:24:37 GMT
The Spanish Civil War suffers from being categorised as a battle between Good and Evil,rather than the complex,nuanced affair it was.
For what it's worth,I would have also thrown my lot in with Franco,with severe reservations.
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Feb 6, 2015 23:45:49 GMT
The areas where British tourists go are the most anti-Franco districts. Catalonia and Andalucia were always opposed. Go to Galicia or Cantabria and its quite different Didn't Andalucia also have a lot of 'greenshirts' militants that favoured neither side. Ironically fought to be neutral. Andalucia has always been politically red - Cordoba is probably Spain's most left-wing city |
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
Member is Online
|
Post by Khunanup on Feb 7, 2015 23:41:09 GMT
Kippers to favour Franco wrt the Spanish Civil War is understandable. Kippers to favour the FN in France right now is dispiriting. You are incorrect, unless they are real racist bastards (which for all their failings in my opinion most Kippers are not), they are quite completely insane to support FN. |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Feb 8, 2015 3:52:29 GMT
Didn't Andalucia also have a lot of 'greenshirts' militants that favoured neither side. Ironically fought to be neutral. Andalucia has always been politically red - Cordoba is probably Spain's most left-wing city You want a weekend in Cadiz. I've never been somewhere so...red. |
|
cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589 
|
Post by cibwr on Feb 8, 2015 9:39:11 GMT
Kippers to favour Franco wrt the Spanish Civil War is understandable. Kippers to favour the FN in France right now is dispiriting. You are incorrect, unless they are real racist bastards (which for all their failings in my opinion most Kippers are not), they are quite completely insane to support FN. And to be fair to UKIP in the EU parliament they have tried their best not to associate with the FN, shame that they have got into bed with some worse parties! |
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 8, 2015 12:32:36 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 8, 2015 18:10:42 GMT
Turnout is up from the first round. Turnout at 17:00 in the first round was 34.45%. The same time in the second round turnout was 43.49%. Polls closed at 18:00 French time and counting is underway. Reports that the results could be close.
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 8, 2015 18:18:14 GMT
Turnout is up from the first round. Turnout at 17:00 in the first round was 34.45%. The same time in the second round turnout was 43.49%. Polls closed at 18:00 French time and counting is underway. Reports that the results could be close. When is result likely to be known? |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 8, 2015 18:36:23 GMT
First estimate I've seen is:
FN 50,26%
PS 49,74%
|
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Feb 8, 2015 18:48:53 GMT
Partial results at 7:40pm local time PS 8976 FN 8849
|
|
