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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 25, 2013 19:16:53 GMT
I 'liked' it at least. I didn't think I had anything worthwhile to add though |
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Pimpernal
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A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 26, 2013 16:56:44 GMT
Anyways, I presume that this forums kipper contingent will be delighted at the news, if slightly miffed that the FN didn't do a tad better. I presume the forum's pseudo-Za-Nu-Labour contingent are still bewailing the fall of Pol Pot. |
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 26, 2013 17:06:34 GMT
Not your greatest ever post Pimp, tbh......
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Post by coolhandluke on Mar 26, 2013 17:14:03 GMT
Joel Gombin, professor at Picardie university, has been anaylsing the first and second round results for this by-election in the 2ème circ. de l'Oise. He examined the results across the 196 polling stations and found that, controversially, 43% of (1st round) PS voters seem to have switched to FN's Florence Italiani in the second round (and this seems to have been confirmed throughout all the district municipalities). The rest of the PS vote split almost threeways between abstention, blank/invalid or UMP. His analysis also suggests that had slighly more of the 1st round FN voters been retained in the second round (652 abstained, 290 gave blank/invalid votes and 1812 switched to the UMP) then FN's Florence Italiani would have won. www.joelgombin.fr/ |
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Pimpernal
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A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 26, 2013 17:45:40 GMT
Not your greatest ever post Pimp, tbh...... Well it wasn't a very good comment to respond to on a rather dire thread ... Wasn't worth much else than a spiteful pointless irrelevant response to an equally moronic opening comment! IMHO of course... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2013 19:35:38 GMT
Joel Gombin, professor at Picardie university, has been anaylsing the first and second round results for this by-election in the 2ème circ. de l'Oise. He examined the results across the 196 polling stations and found that, controversially, 43% of (1st round) PS voters seem to have switched to FN's Florence Italiani in the second round (and this seems to have been confirmed throughout all the district municipalities). The rest of the PS vote split almost threeways between abstention, blank/invalid or UMP. His analysis also suggests that had slighly more of the 1st round FN voters been retained in the second round (652 abstained, 290 gave blank/invalid votes and 1812 switched to the UMP) then FN's Florence Italiani would have won. www.joelgombin.fr/I dont really see how it can be controversial. Unless UMP 1st round voters went in numbers for FN in the 2nd (seems far fetched) then PS voters must have backed FN over UMP by a large amount. Very suprised as few as 20% of PS voters would vote UMP in a run off agaisnt FN. I imagine the majority of labour supporters would push come to shove vote for us over the BNP. Many wouldn't turn out, but of those who did... On here I imagine nearly all would. I could probably manage to vote Labour in a reverse circumstance, though the urge to spoil would be strong. |
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Hash
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Post by Hash on Mar 27, 2013 15:41:54 GMT
There are some potential issues in Gombin's analysis (which is excellent) and it shouldn't be taken as word of god, but the 43% estimate seems quite reasonable (maybe on the higher end for some). My concerns are probably with Italiani apparently holding only 62% of her R1 voters, something is fishy in that. The substitution theory should not be written off entirely, seeing how analysis of 35% turnout elections is tough. Very suprised as few as 20% of PS voters would vote UMP in a run off agaisnt FN. I imagine the majority of labour supporters would push come to shove vote for us over the BNP. Many wouldn't turn out, but of those who did... On here I imagine nearly all would. I could probably manage to vote Labour in a reverse circumstance, though the urge to spoil would be strong. Two things: a) This by-election should not be seen as a national indicator of how PS voters would behave in, say, a presidential runoff between the UMP and the FN. As I explained in my previous post, there are local factors might may explain why the local UMP candidate was so repulsive to some left-wing voters. Besides, we're talking about a by-election in which *most* PS voters didn't bother to vote in the first round to begin with. b) the BNP is basically an openly racist and neo-Nazi/neo-fascist party which is repulsive to tons of voters. The FN had similar problems under Panzerdaddy, but under Panzergirl/'Marine' it is clear that it is far less toxic. She has been very good at downplaying the more controversial aspects of her party and washing off Daddy's legacy (so-called 'dédiabolisation'); she has instead focused on the most appealing stuff and the useless French media has usually let the more disturbing aspects of her platform/party slide. On top of that, you must remember that Panzergirl is loathed by the 'hardcore' FN racists/skinheads/neo-Nazi thugs and the 'old guard' (most of which have left the party or were expelled). She has been considerably tougher than Daddy ever was on the 'rogue' FN members who embarrass the party with the Nazi pictures or the Holocaust denialism. The racists supported her rival at the 2010 Tours Congress (Bruno Gollnisch, an old neo-fascist type who denies the Holocaust) and the party leadership under Panzergirl is filled with her inner circle of ex-Mégretistes or 'technocrats' like FN rising star and mastermind Florian Philippot. Philippot et al appear set on winning power and have an interest in improving the FN's image. But you still have 60+% of the population which doesn't like the FN and it will be a tough wall to crack. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2013 18:37:50 GMT
This video features the shock exit poll of the 2002 presidential election which put Le Pen into the second round.
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Post by coolhandluke on Apr 18, 2013 13:03:33 GMT
There's a new Europe 1/Ifop-Fiducial présidentielle poll (using the same line-up as in 2012) indicating that Marine Le Pen appears to be gaining more from recent setbacks of François Hollande. Both now poll 22% which is a fall of 6.63% for Hollande and a 4.1% rise for Le Pen compared to actual voting a year ago in the présidentielle elections. Nicolas Sarkozy leads this new poll with 30% which is 2.8% better than a year ago and a 0.5% rise since the last Europe 1/Ifop-Fiducial présidentielle poll in October 2012. 22 Apr 2012 (Présidentielle Elections): Hollande (28.63%); Sarkozy (27.18%); Le Pen (17.9%); Mélenchon (11.1%); Bayrou (9.13%); Joly (2,31%); Dupont-Aignan (1.79%); Poutou (1.15%); Arthaud (0,56%); Cheminade (0,25%). Oct 2012 (Europe 1/Ifop-Fiducial poll): Sarkozy (29.5%); Hollande (28%); Le Pen (19.5%); Mélenchon (10%); Bayrou (7%); Joly (2%); Dupont-Aignan (2%); Poutou (1.5%); Arthaud (0,5%); Cheminade (0%). Apr 2013 (Europe 1/Ifop-Fiducial poll): Sarkozy (30%); Hollande (22%); Le Pen (22%); Mélenchon (11%); Bayrou (10%); Dupont-Aignan (2%); Joly (1,5%); Poutou (1%); Arthaud (0,5%); Cheminade (<0,5%). fichier.europe1.fr/infos/politique/sondage-exclusif-europe-1-ifop-fiducial.pdf |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 15:16:03 GMT
It would not be my preferred outcome, but an Hollande-Le Pen run-off in 2017 would be very interesting. I cannot imagine many UMP supporters wanting to back Hollande under most circumstances. He'd win but not as comprehensively as Chirac did in 2002 I'm sure.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 28, 2014 20:19:46 GMT
A By Election was held this month in the Aube 3rd Constituency. The results in this constituency in 2012 were First Round UMP 15,677 41.42% PS 10,899 28.79% FN 6,733 17.79% FG 2,718 7.18% 7 others Second Round UMP 20,051 56.45% PS 15,466 43.55% www.lemonde.fr/resultats-elections-legislatives/3eme-circonscription-de-l-aube/The results of the by election held on 7th and 14th of this month were as follows First Round UMP 6,422 40.67% FN 4,355 27.64% PS 2,315 14.69% FG 1,175 7.46% 4 others Second Round UMP 10,527 63.85% FN 5,960 36.15% fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troisi%C3%A8me_circonscription_de_l%27Aube |
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Post by Devonian on Dec 28, 2014 20:32:56 GMT
The next Nation Assembly by election is due in the 4th Doubs constituency on the first and eight of February. The election was triggered when the incumbent member of the Assembly Pierre Moscovici was appointed to the European Commission. Results in 2012 First Round PS 16,421 40.81% FN 9,605 23.87% UMP 9,341 23.21% 9 others Second Round PS 19,311 49.32% UMP 10,260 26.21% FN 9,581 24.47% www.lemonde.fr/resultats-elections-legislatives/4eme-circonscription-du-doubs/ |
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Post by David Ashforth on Dec 29, 2014 9:59:29 GMT
The next Nation Assembly by election is due in the 4th Doubs constituency on the first and eight of February. The election was triggered when the incumbent member of the Assembly Pierre Moscovici was appointed to the European Commission. Results in 2012 First Round PS 16,421 40.81% FN 9,605 23.87% UMP 9,341 23.21% 9 others Second Round PS 19,311 49.32% UMP 10,260 26.21% FN 9,581 24.47% www.lemonde.fr/resultats-elections-legislatives/4eme-circonscription-du-doubs/Boundary of Doubs on Google Maps. Unfortunately, I couldn't find a better map of the 4ème circonscription than this:  |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Dec 29, 2014 10:11:50 GMT
The white part of the map is Besançon. Doubs abuts the Swiss border and is pretty mountainous.
Have the French abandoned the practice of deputy/stand in/replacement Assembly members if those elected become ministers etc? Or does that not apply if members become European Commissioners?
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 29, 2014 10:33:59 GMT
The white part of the map is Besançon. Doubs abuts the Swiss border and is pretty mountainous. Have the French abandoned the practice of deputy/stand in/replacement Assembly members if those elected become ministers etc? Or does that not apply if members become European Commissioners? That practice still exists, but it doesn't apply to European Commissioners. They tried getting around that through a wierd system (temporary missions), which asks to an Assembly/Senate member to write a report on some subject, for a maximum time of 6 months. It can be lenghtnened by another 6 months, but it causes replacement by the "suppléant". They tried that, buy they ended a few days short (it would have reached 6 months on November 5), so, it didn't worked. In his case, it was a report about the France in European Union. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 29, 2014 20:38:47 GMT
I had wondered where Francois Baroin had gone. There's someone who should have had a better job at some point. I am surprised to learn that he is the partner of the wonderful, and very funny, Michele Laroque.
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Post by Devonian on Jan 1, 2015 17:52:35 GMT
The three main candidates for the Doubs by election will be
PS - Frédéric Barbier - Barbier has been representing the constituency since 2012 as Moscovici's stand in deputy. He is also Vice President of the General Council of Doubs.
FN - Sophie Montel - Montel was the FN candidate here in 2012. She is also an MEP for the East constituency, a regional councillor for Franche-Comté and a municipal councillor for Montbéliard
UMP - Charles Demouge- Demouge was the UMP candidate in 2012 and is also the mayor of Fesches-le-Châtel and municipal councillor for Voujeaucourt.
other declared candidates so far are Ecologist Bernard Lachambre, FdG Vincent Adami, UPR Yannick Hervé and Independent Ismaël Boudjekada.
Nominations open 5 January and close 9 January. SOPN due to be published 10 January.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2015 6:47:57 GMT
"SOPN" or whatever the French translation of that is  |
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Post by Devonian on Jan 2, 2015 11:36:38 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Jan 4, 2015 12:28:46 GMT
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vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1161/french-politics?page=2 
vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1161/french-politics?page=2 
