Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2015 11:27:25 GMT
The entirely raison d'etre of Likud is to keep the Israeli populace permanently alarmed...and therefore get re-elected. The irony being that the longer Netanyahu stays in power, the weaker Israel's international position becomes. Eventually a solution will be imposed de facto on them and they will lament the years wasted with this inept and intransigent bigot in charge. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 18, 2015 14:45:34 GMT
Even ignoring the wider situation, this is the sort of shabby, scrappy, and ultimately ugly incumbent victory that rarely ends particularly well.
As an aside, once you account for all the electoral drama between parties competing within the same loose ideological sections, it's notable how little things have shifted from 2013.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 18, 2015 14:49:01 GMT
Looks like a bit of a repeat of UK '92, with shy Likudniks. Or in an Israeli context, 1996 all over again. With the same winner no less. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 18, 2015 14:59:09 GMT
If we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad.
|
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,759
Member is Online
|
Post by mboy on Mar 18, 2015 16:04:26 GMT
So Bibi's last minute appeal to the far-right worked, then...
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 18, 2015 16:15:20 GMT
Boosted his party's vote anyway. It's questionable that Likud taking five seats less and Jewish Home five seats more (or whatever) would make much difference to eventual coalition endgames (other than maybe lengthening the process).
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 18, 2015 16:24:20 GMT
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 19, 2015 15:23:34 GMT
Seat numbers have been changed slightly by the counting of the postal votes: the Joint List is down to 13 and Meretz is up to 5. UTJ's hopes of holding on to their seventh seat from last time seem to have been dashed.
|
|
|
|
Post by bolbridge on Mar 19, 2015 15:53:36 GMT
Seat numbers have been changed slightly by the counting of the postal votes: the Joint List is down to 14 and Meretz is up to 5. UTJ's hopes of holding on to their seventh seat from last time seem to have been dashed. JL down FROM 14 I think |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 19, 2015 16:44:18 GMT
Indeed. A plague on typos.
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Mar 19, 2015 17:58:18 GMT
Which parties do we think will be in the Coalition government?
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,459
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 19, 2015 18:37:14 GMT
Baroness Tonge was absolutely right in her assessment of Israel and has been proved to be so
|
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 19, 2015 18:47:52 GMT
The organ-harvesting bit?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2015 21:15:17 GMT
No Mike, Baroness Tonge is unhinged when it comes to Israel. I despair of Israeli politics, but she has bought into the anti-Israel lunatic fringe.
|
|
|
|
Post by bolbridge on Mar 19, 2015 21:27:50 GMT
Which parties do we think will be in the Coalition government? See my post on previous page. Joint List, Zionist Union, Yesh Atid and Meretz to be in opposition. Slim chance Yesh Atid will join the Government, but it would have to be at the expense of Shas and UTJ. Slim chance either Yisrael Beiteinu or UTJ will be in opposition. This one doesn't look hard to predict. |
|
|
|
Post by bolbridge on Mar 19, 2015 21:29:07 GMT
The organ-harvesting bit? Sometimes 'Those comments were completely taken out of context' just won't work. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 23, 2015 23:59:50 GMT
Maps of the results - by municipality - in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area:  To an extent this is a test map with a generic key (for municipal and lower results) that can be used everywhere (I would use something more specific for larger territorial units). Note that 50% includes everything from that point up to the nineties. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 24, 2015 13:58:32 GMT
What's the social geography of the Tel Aviv area, then? Obviously the bit UTJ won is ultra-orthodox and presumably the southern municipalities are fairly Russian and religious. How about the central city and northern areas? Particularly Ashkenazi?
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 24, 2015 16:35:42 GMT
Yes. Though the southern fringe of the city proper isn't (Sephardi and Russian with Arabs in Jaffa) though that only shows up at lower data levels.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on May 5, 2015 21:58:39 GMT
Lieberman is clearly a dish served cold kind of person: he's announced that YB are going into opposition, mere days before an extended deadline on government formation is due to expire. This would leave Bibi's new coalition with the narrowest of narrow majorities.
|
|
