|
|
Post by bolbridge on Mar 17, 2015 14:41:43 GMT
Anyway, opinion polling finished up as follows: Labor 24-26, Likud 20-23, Joint List 12-13, YA 11-13, JH 11-13, Kulanu 8-11, Shas 7-9, UTJ 6-7, Meretz 4-6, YB 4-6, Yachad-Otzma 4-5 Minimum for Likud, JH, Shas, UTJ, Y-O is 48. Given the JL's strength that means we'll have at least one hawkish/religious party in the next Government, sadly. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 17, 2015 14:52:15 GMT
That's par for the course in Israel. Shas don't have any particular problems with being part of a left-wing government, so long as some fairly minor concessions to the ultra-orthodox are made.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 17, 2015 14:57:45 GMT
That's par for the course in Israel. Shas don't have any particular problems with being part of a left-wing government, so long as some fairly minor concessions to the ultra-orthodox are made. Messianic religion, focus on the Old Testament, dead spiritual leader who they're all still afraid of, rent-seeking, and willingness to cosy up to whoever hands out the dosh.  |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 15:53:39 GMT
4pm turnout is estimated at 45.4%, compared to 46.6% in 2013. Estimates *might* not be directly comparable as a greater number of polling stations have been measured this year.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 17:00:57 GMT
The electoral committee has banned the televising of a Bibi press conference on the basis that it would breach regulations; he has responded with a Facebook rant that could be interpreted as slightly paranoid.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2015 17:14:19 GMT
The electoral committee has banned the televising of a Bibi press conference on the basis that it would breach regulations; he has responded with a Facebook rant that could be interpreted as slightly paranoid. A good sign. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 17, 2015 18:00:27 GMT
The electoral committee has banned the televising of a Bibi press conference on the basis that it would breach regulations; he has responded with a Facebook rant that could be interpreted as slightly paranoid. A good sign. Haaretz reports that he's bizarrely claiming that "there's nothing wrong with Arabs voting, but foreign money is bringing them to the polls en masse". L'argent et des votes ethniques! |
|
|
|
Post by bolbridge on Mar 17, 2015 18:21:07 GMT
That's par for the course in Israel. Shas don't have any particular problems with being part of a left-wing government, so long as some fairly minor concessions to the ultra-orthodox are made. Yep, but I have a problem with Shas. The one silver lining in the last government formation was the way in which Lapid skilfully selected Bibi's coalition partners for him so as to lock out the Haredim. The worsening fragmentation of the non-Arab parties seems to be complicating the next government's formation. If Likud do badly enough they might even get rid of Bibi (would they?) and we could have a 'secular coalition' of the sort floated in the days of Sharon, this time with the big two parties plus Yesh Atid, Kulanu and Yisrael Beitenu. I don't know how likely that is, but otherwise it seems we're stuck with Shas, UTJ etc. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 17, 2015 18:33:01 GMT
I suspect this election will see the beginning of the end for Yisrael Beiteinu. Lieberman is clearly already bricking it that his vote is drifting away, and as the Russophone minority hits a younger, more integrated generation, YB's reason to exist starts to diminish. Eventually, if you want an anti-clerical party or a generic right-wing party, you'll go elsewhere.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 18:46:25 GMT
Turnout now slightly up on last time. A BBC reporter at Likud HQ says that there are rumours of a close race, but that he has no idea what the sources for this are.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 18:57:49 GMT
No idea of accuracy of this, but there are now some number-based rumours. Suggestions of a squeeze in favour of the big two.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 19:13:58 GMT
Judging from Bennet's hysterical briefings to the media it would appear that Jewish Home have leaked a lot of votes to Likud.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 19:44:03 GMT
Bunch of exit poll rumours (i.e. please consume with vast amounts of salt) about, here's the only complete-ish one I can find: Labor 27, Likud 26, Joint List 15, Kulanu 12, YA 11, JH 8, Shas 7, YB 4-5, Meretz 4, Yachad out.
UTJ not mentioned??? Presumably their usual figure then
|
|
|
|
Post by bolbridge on Mar 17, 2015 20:01:40 GMT
Bunch of exit poll rumours (i.e. please consume with vast amounts of salt) about, here's the only complete-ish one I can find: Labor 27, Likud 26, Joint List 15, Kulanu 12, YA 11, JH 8, Shas 7, YB 4-5, Meretz 4, Yachad out. UTJ not mentioned??? Presumably their usual figure then Shas lose votes to splitters who just come under the threshold. That's something to smile about |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 20:06:11 GMT
Channel 2 exit poll is neck and neck with much uncertainty at the bottom as well:
Likud 28
Labor: 27
JL: 13
YA: 12
Kulanu: 9
JH: 8
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
YB: 5
Yachad: out
Knesset Channel has a one seat lead for Labor, Channel 10 a tie.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 20:07:21 GMT
Channel 10:
Labor 27
Likud 27
JL 13
YA 11
Kulanu 10
JH 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7
YB 5
Meretz 5
Yachad out
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 20:09:48 GMT
Yeah, its going to be a long night (by which I mean 'week'). Best Labor result since the 1990s (potentially better than 1999 actually), Likud on par with 2009.
|
|
|
|
Post by bolbridge on Mar 17, 2015 20:09:48 GMT
Once again Bibi has he edge in coalition negotiations. It looks like this election could actually turn out to be predictable.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 17, 2015 20:16:21 GMT
Exit polls averaged as per Haaretz:
Labor: 27
Likud: 27
Joint List: 13
Yesh Atid: 12
Kulanu: 10
Jewish Home: 8
Shas: 7
United Torah Judaism: 6
Yisrael Beiteinu: 5
Meretz: 5
Yahad: out
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 17, 2015 20:24:30 GMT
Judging from Bennet's hysterical briefings to the media it would appear that Jewish Home have leaked a lot of votes to Likud. Bennet is awful and this news would be excellent. He's like YB but without the taste for bacon butties. |
|
